It is Thursday, June 16, and while there are only five baseball games being played this evening, we are in for a treat with a lot of good pitchers on the mound like Luis Severino, Shohei Ohtani, Zack Wheeler, Martin Perez and George Kirby. OddsShopper can help find all of the best MLB betting picks and get helpful tips for making MLB predictions for today, Thursday, June 16. Below are three strikeout props, two home run prop and one total base prop for the best MLB prop bets today.
Best MLB Prop Bets Today: Free MLB Picks & Predictions
Aaron Ashby O/U 5.5 Strikeouts
Aaron Ashby takes the mound against the New York Mets. On the season, Ashby has a 27.7% strikeout rate and averages 1.22 strikeouts per inning, meaning he would have to pitch five innings in order to reach six strikeouts. The Mets have one of the lowest strikeout rates at just 19.7%, so it will most likely take Ashby closer to six innings than five to reach the over on this bet. The OddsShopper MLB model gives Ashby a 58% chance of going over, but what makes this a good bet is the expected ROI of 33%.
Best MLB Prop Bet Today: Aaron Ashby OVER 5.5 Strikeouts (+128)
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Martin Perez O/U 4.5 Strikeouts
Martin Perez faces the lowly Detroit Tigers and their 24.3% strikeout rate, which is fifth highest in baseball. Perez is having his best year ever; he has a 20% strikeout rate, higher than his career 15.6%, and his 3.68 xFIP is also a career best. He averages 0.81 strikeouts per inning and would need to pitch just over six innings on average to reach the over. With facing a team with a high strikeout rate, he gets a strikeout boost, though. OddsShopper gives him a 59% chance of going over 4.5 strikeouts and a 21% expected ROI.
Best MLB Prop Bet Today: Martin Perez OVER 4.5 Strikeouts (+105)
Hunter Renfroe O/U 0.5 Home Runs
Hunter Renfroe faces Tylor Megill tonight. While Megill has had a nice season, he is allowing 1.18 HR/9. Renfroe does not hit the ball often — he has just a .246 batting average — but when he does it often goes far, as his .216 ISO shows. OddsShopper’s model gives him an 18% chance of hitting a home run, while the +450 implied odds leads to an 18% expected ROI on this bet.
Best MLB Prop Bet Today: Hunter Renfroe OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+450)
Luis Severino O/U 6.5 Strikeouts
Luis Severino is going against Tampa Bay, which is a worse offense than their reputation. Tampa Bay has tied for the 10th-highest strikeout rate (23.1%), just the 20th-highest ISO, the fifth-lowest on-base percentage and the seventh-fewest runs scored. Severino should have a good day on the mound today. On the season he has a 28.9% strikeout rate, a 3.18 xFIP and averages 1.16 strikeouts per inning. If he pitches six innings, he should go over the total tonight. OddsShopper’s MLB betting model gives him a 64% chance of going over 6.5 strikeouts and a 12% expected ROI.
Best MLB Prop Bet Today: Luis Severino OVER 6.5 Strikeouts (-130)
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