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Best MLB Bets Today (7/28): Baseball Prop Betting Picks

Mark Kieffer

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It is Thursday, July 28, and there is a 10-game MLB slate tonight, with eight of those games happening at 7:05 p.m. ET or later. The Mariners and Astros kick off a series in Houston, which should be very entertaining between these two top AL West teams. There are also some big-name pitchers going tonight, with Zack Wheeler pitching to the Pittsburgh Pirates and Shohei Ohtani to the Texas Rangers. The Los Angeles Dodgers come into Coors Field in what could be a high-scoring game for them as well. OddsShopper can help you find all of the best MLB betting picks, giving helpful tips for making your MLB bets today. Below are three strikeout props, two home run props and two total bases props — the best ROI MLB prop bets tonight.


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Best MLB Prop Bets Today: Free MLB Picks & Predictions

Jameson Taillon O/U 4.5 Strikeouts | Clam Your FREE $200 NOW

Jameson Taillon pitches to the Kansas City Royals in New York tonight. On the season, Taillon has a 19.7% strikeout rate and averages 0.82 strikeouts per inning. To reach five strikeouts on average, it would take six innings. While he has gone as high as eight innings in the past, in the last nine starts he has gone six innings just once. In the last two weeks, the Royals have the 14th-highest strikeout rate, but they just traded Andrew Benintendi to the Yankees. Benintendi had a strikeout rate of just 13.3%, and he will likely be replaced by Kyle Isbel, a player that strikes out 23.9% of the time. This Royals offense just got weaker, so the over is the bet to make. One way to deal with the higher juice on this bet is to use it to turn $10 into $200 by signing up on BetMGM and getting $200 free!

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The Pick: Jameson Taillon OVER 4.5 Strikeouts (-145)

Zack Wheeler O/U 6.5 Strikeouts | Clam Your FREE $200 NOW

Zack Wheeler will pitch to the Pittsburgh Pirates tonight in Pittsburgh. Wheeler has a 26.7% strikeout rate and averages 1.07 strikeouts per inning. On average, he would have to pitch 6.2 innings or more to reach seven strikeouts. He has not yet pitched to the Pirates this season. The Pirates do strike out frequently; they have the third-highest strikeout rate over the past month (26.3%). While Wheeler has not reached seven or more strikeouts in his last four starts, he has done so in 10 of his 18 starts this season. Pitching to one of the highest-strikeout teams in the league gives optimism he can reach seven or more strikeouts this game, even if he pitches just six innings. There is an increased likelihood of an upside game tonight, and bettors can get this at plus odds.

Best MLB Pick Today: Zack Wheeler OVER 6.5 Strikeouts (+118)


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Darin Ruf O/U 0.5 Home Runs | Clam Your FREE $200 NOW
Darin Ruf O/U 0.5 Total Bases

Darin Ruf will face Justin Steele and the Chicago Cubs tonight. While Ruf’s numbers won’t blow anyone away, with a .222 batting average and .161 ISO, the splits against lefties tell a different story. Ruf has a .396 wOBA and .286 ISO against them this season, which are both elite. The home run prop is a good pick to make. Making a ladder with a normal bet on the total bases prop and then a small bet on the home run can create a profit whether or not Ruf hits a home run, as long as he gets a hit on the day.

Best MLB Pick Today: Darin Ruf OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+500); Darin Ruf OVER 0.5 Total Bases (-173)

Triston McKenzie O/U 5.5 Strikeouts | Clam Your FREE $200 NOW

Triston McKenzie faces the Boston Red Sox tonight. The Red Sox are rolling out a somewhat weak lineup these days; just last night this lineup had Franchy Cordero, Bobby Dalbec, Jackie Bradley Jr. and Yolmer Sanchez batting Nos. 6 through 9. In the past week, the Red Sox have the third-highest strikeout rate at 27.6%. McKenzie has a 23.9% strikeout rate and averages 0.93 strikeouts per inning. He would need to pitch 6.2 innings on average to reach six strikeouts. This depleted Red Sox team should provide a strikeout boost for McKenzie. He had six or more strikeouts in three of his last five starts and 10 of his 17 starts this season. This is a good spot and not a bad bet with which to get plus odds.

The MLB Best Bet: Justin Verlander OVER 5.5 Strikeouts (+102)

Eric Haase O/U 0.5 Home Runs | Clam Your FREE $200 NOW
Eric Haase O/U 0.5 Total Bases

Eric Haase will see Yusei Kikuchi on the mound tonight. Haase is batting .241 with eight home runs and a .195 ISO in 62 games this season. Against lefties, he has a .346 wOBA and a .212 ISO. Kikuchi is allowing 1.94 HR/9 and has a 50% hard-hit rate. The recommendation is to take a similar approach to the Ruf bet by putting a wager on the total bases prop and a small one on the home run prop. Haase has a good wOBA and has plenty of power against left-handed pitchers, while Kikuchi has struggled all season long.

The Betting Pick: Eric Haase OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+380); Eric Haase OVER 0.5 Total Bases (-155)


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