With the dust now settled from MLB’s trade deadline, it’s time to see how any new adjustments provide value for first inning plays. Be it a No Run First Inning or a Yes Run First Inning bet, the aim is to combine recent hitting and pitching trends, ballpark data, and the first inning moneyline tool at OddsShopper. Here are the best value plays for today’s action with the best NRFI picks for Thursday, Aug. 4.
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Rays at Tigers Pick | RISK FREE BET from BetMGM
Attacking Detroit on the road in any NRFI scenario makes sense, as the Tigers are worst in all of baseball when it comes to runs per first inning (RPFI) on the road. At home it’s a different story, a better one for the Tigers. Detroit jumps from 0.15 RPFI on the road to 0.48 at home. They will go up against Jeffrey Springs, who owns a 2.70 ERA but will give up baserunners, with a 1.12 WHIP. Springs certainly has a good strikeout rate of 26%, but his ground ball rate of 40% is an opening for Detroit. The Tigers send opener Drew Hutchinson to the hill tonight, with far worse numbers than Springs, which should allow a couple of scoring chances for the Rays.
Best NRFI Bet Today: Rays vs. Tigers YRFI (+105 BetMGM)
Astros at Guardians | RISK FREE BET from BetMGM
Sending Justin Verlander to the mound makes it hard for any team to create scoring chances, let alone score a first inning run. The balance comes from whom the Guardians are countering with in Zach Plesac. The Astros already score 0.60 RPFI on the road and come off a game where they plated two runs in the opening frame. Houston is averaging one run over their last three games and takes on Plesac, who is struggling to get consistent outs. Don’t totally count out the Guardians here; they average a healthy 0.64 RPFI at home, but they also happen to go up against a human buzzsaw tonight.
Best NRFI Bet Today: Astros vs. Guardians YRFI (+105 BetMGM)
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Nationals at Phillies Pick | RISK FREE BET from BetMGM
The Nationals got their wish in making a huge deal with the Padres, and now it’s a race to the bottom. The Phillies are wild card contenders and send their newest pitcher to the mound tonight in Noah Syndergaard. Philadelphia averages .51 RPFI at home but might see some early issues against Washington. The Nats will send Pablo Espino to the mound, and he’s been stretched out over the past two months. Back when Espino was solely opening in May and June, he had a run of seven straight outings with a scoreless first inning. Expect that to continue at least through the first inning tonight against the Phillies.
Best NRFI Bet Today: Phillies vs. Nationals NRFI (-110 BetMGM)
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