The weekend begins with a large slate of action on the diamond, with Friday night bringing new matchups and exploitable pitchers. Be it a No Run First Inning or a Yes Run First Inning bet, the goal tonight is combining recent hitting and pitching trends, ballpark data, and the first inning moneyline tool at OddsShopper. Here are the best value plays for tonight’s action with the best NRFI bets for Friday, July 29.
Best NRFI Bets Today: No Run First Inning Picks 7/29
Royals vs. Yankees Pick | Claim $200 FREE at BetMGM
The Yankees needed Aaron Judge last night in their final at-bat to beat the lowly Royals. Going up against Kris Bubic tonight should give the Bombers plenty more scoring chances, especially in the first. What’s lost in their 1-0 loss last night is how many scoring chances the Royals had in that game. Granted, they won’t be as plentiful against Gerrit Cole — but Kansas City is still getting on base despite three straight shutouts. Back to Bubic, the Yankees now face a pitcher with a 17.7 K% and a 43.7% Ground Ball Rate, combined with New York being one of baseball’s best teams scoring 0.76 runs per first inning (RPFI) at home. The Royals will have a chance and the Yankees should have even more.
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Best NRFI Bet Today: Royals vs. Yankees YRFI (+100 BetMGM)
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Tigers vs. Blue Jays Pick | Claim $200 FREE at BetMGM
Detroit doesn’t score much on the road in the first inning on the road. The Tigers are the worst team in baseball averaging just 0.17 RPFI on the road and didn’t score any in their last game. They go up against one of the league’s best pitchers in Alek Manoah at his home park. Manoah has been lights out and the Tigers have no power, so this is a terrible combination for Detroit to snap out of any funk on the road. Toronto is about league average with a 0.58 RPFI average at home, but they face a newcomer in Bryan Garcia making his season debut. While Garcia may struggle over the second half of the season, it’s a fresh arm against a team that doesn’t score enough in the first to truly take advantage. The Tigers do give up 0.71 RPFI on the road but haven’t seen one over their last three games.
Best NRFI Bet Today: Tigers vs. Blue Jays NRFI (-120 BetMGM)
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Brewers vs. Red Sox Pick | Claim $200 FREE at BetMGM
Boston has seen its opponent score a first inning run in each of the three starts so far by Brayan Bello. That isn’t helping a Red Sox team that is third worst in baseball giving up 0.66 RPFI to visiting teams. Milwaukee hasn’t exactly taken advantage of every break while on the road, only averaging 0.38 RPFI away from home, but this is a special circumstance in the pitching matchup. Brandon Woodruff hasn’t surrendered a first inning run since his first road start of the season, seven straight scoreless since, and Boston’s bats have gone silent in the first over its last three games. This is simply continuing to bet that Bello is a walking disaster in the first inning.
Best NRFI Bet Today: Brewers vs. Red Sox YRFI (-115 BetMGM)
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