It’s a shorter slate to open the work week on the diamond, but having all the action focused later in the day makes it easier to target the value. Be it a No Run First Inning or a Yes Run First Inning bet, the goal here is to combine recent hitting and pitching trends, ballpark data, and the first inning moneyline tool at OddsShopper. Here are the best value plays for tonight’s action with the best NRFI bets for Monday, July 25.
Best NRFI Bets Today: No Run First Inning Picks 7/25
Marlins vs. Reds Pick | Claim $200 FREE at BetMGM
Playing the number here is one thing, but adding the starting pitching matchup and the location of the game just makes it silly to pass or fade. Even money for a run in the first inning at Great American Ballpark with Trevor Rogers against Nick Lodolo makes zero sense and should be taken advantage of immediately. Rogers is on a three-game losing streak despite the Marlins having a better season overall, and Lodolo is the perfect speed bump for a Reds team that’s won six of their last 10 games. The Reds also carry the league’s worst team ERA at 5.28 — still lower than Lodolo’s 5.81 number. If there was ever a shot in the arm for a Marlins team that only scores 0.28 runs per first inning (RPFI) on the road, it’s taking on Lodolo at Great American.
Best NRFI Bet Today: Marlins vs. Reds YRFI (+100 BetRivers)
The Marlins – Reds YRFI is actually my favorite play today across the board, but even that comes with some risk. While I can’t remove all risk from my plays, I can get you some free money – $200 at BetMGM – by simply betting on any game tonight. Turning you deposit into free money will be the easiest bet you place today, and it’s going to hit!
Ben Rasa goes over his best MLB bets for Monday (7/25/22) and gives you his favorite MLB prediction today.
Braves vs. Phillies Pick | Claim $200 FREE at BetMGM
Ranger Suarez is the target tonight for any play in the first inning, as it all starts with the Phillies left-hander. While Max Fried is certainly the better pitcher having the better season, he’s taking on a lesser lineup that struggled through a three-game set — at home — against the Cubs. Playing any NRFI bet here would take into account the easier pathway for Fried, but it also would recognize Suarez has given up a first inning score in four of his eight starts at home this year. Plus, he hasn’t won a home start since April. As expected, Suarez breaks down the later he goes but has only given up four home runs off 144 total batters faced the first time through the order as a starting pitcher.
Best NRFI Bet Today: Braves vs. Phillies NRFI (-115 BetMGM)
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Rockies vs. Brewers Pick | Claim $200 FREE at BetMGM
There are no issues with the Brewers and RPFI at home, as they are one of baseball’s best teams in that category, averaging 0.72 on the season. The Rockies continue to see their home and away scoring splits get wider as the season ages, from how little they score on the road in the first inning to how much they give up. Colorado is second worst in MLB, allowing 0.76 RPFI away from Coors Field, and it sends Kyle Freeland to the mound with a 4.96 ERA. It’s not necessarily lights out for the Brewers side with Aaron Ashby on the hill, who is struggling with a 2-7 record and a 4.57 ERA. The sneaky number in this equation will be the 0.47 RPFI allowed at home by Milwaukee, and why both teams will have at least one scoring opportunity early in this game.
Best NRFI Bet Today: Rockies vs. Brewers YRFI (-105 BetMGM)
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