What began as a best-of-seven NBA Finals series has now morphed into a best of three. Thanks to the other-worldly heroics of Stephen Curry, the Golden State Warriors managed to take Game 4 of The Finals in Boston and level up the series at two apiece. Now, the Dubs once again have home court advantage and will be trying to hold serve tonight as the series resumes in the Bay Area. While successfully betting on the game lines in this series has proven to be much easier said than done, the NBA player props market continues to offer worthwhile opportunities. This continues with Monday’s Game 5 as there are several intriguing NBA betting picks and prop bets on the board today.
Bettors can easily enhance their NBA player props handicapping process further by including the redesigned OddsShopper as well as NBA betting tips today. Thanks to this tremendous tool, finding the best NBA player props bets today is as simple as three quick steps: Filter, sort, bet.
Best NBA Player Prop Bets & Expert Betting Picks Today
Grant Williams O/U 5.5 Points
In general, the longer a prominent series such as this drags on, the tighter the rotations for both teams become. This is bad news for reserves like Celtics forward Grant Williams. Despite the fact that he made a huge impact off the bench in Boston’s Game 3 win, Williams only saw the floor for 13 minutes in Friday’s Game 4 loss. That was enough time for him to attempt just two field goals, both of which were from 3-point range. Williams hit one of them and finished with only 3 points to his name.
How much playing time Williams sees will be vital to the outcome of the NBA prop bets posted today that has his scoring total set at 5.5 points. On the full season, he averaged 7.8 points per contest. However, he was playing north of 24 minutes per game as well. So far in the NBA Finals, Williams has yet to play more than 21 minutes in any game. The two contests in which he was on the floor for at least 20 minutes were also the two games in which he managed to go over tonight’s scoring prop line. So long as starting center Robert Williams III is healthy enough to log his standard number of minutes, it’s hard to envision Grant Williams seeing the floor in excess on the road tonight.
While OddsShopper is showing that a few sportsbooks have juiced Williams’ scoring prop to the under, that is not the case across the entire market. By carefully selecting where one makes their NBA betting picks for the game today, standard -110 odds can be obtained. This price is up to 20 cents cheaper than what bettors would be required to lay at alternative shops. Combine the optimal odds with Awesemo’s projection for Williams to only score 4.55 points in Game 5 and the expected ROI is 12%.
Best NBA Player Prop Today: Grant Williams UNDER 5.5 Points
Draymond Green O/U 7.5 Rebounds
For as awful as Draymond Green has played offensively in these NBA Finals, he was at least able to make an impact in other areas on Friday night. One of those was on the glass, where he corralled nine rebounds total for the game. While it was not his highest total of The Finals (Green had 11 boards in Game 1), it was certainly a step in the right direction. After all, his Game 4 rebounding output matched the combined total that he reeled in across both Games 2 and 3. When it comes to the NBA prop bets for Game 5 today, the market has bumped Green’s rebound total up to 7.5.
At the time of writing, OddsShopper indicates that the NBA player props market is split on the pricing for this bet. While a handful of sportsbooks are juiced to the under on 7.5 boards, others continue to list identical odds on both sides of the number. Based on the fact that Green averaged 7.3 rebounds per game over the full season, this prop total is essentially spot-on accurate. However, the Celtics do pose a much bigger challenge when it comes to compiling big numbers on the glass than the majority of teams in the league.
Going back to the sentiment discussed for our previous NBA betting picks today, bettors can reasonably assume that the Warriors’ rotation will continue to tighten up just like Boston’s as the series continues. While the decision of Steve Kerr to bench Green in the second half of Game 4 got a lot of press, he still played 33 minutes in the game overall. When push comes to shove, Kerr will likely opt to stick with the core veterans like Green who have been here before and know what it takes to win a title.
Assuming this, Awesemo projects him for 8.31 boards in Monday’s Game 5. While the win probability of this prop going over is only listed at 59%, the fact that OddsShopper is showing a +100 price available in the market makes this bet much more attractive. At that optimal price point, OddsShopper gives this prediction an 18% expected ROI.
Best NBA Player Prop Today: Draymond Green OVER 7.5 Rebounds
Kevon Looney O/U 2.5 Assists
One has to give Warriors center Kevon Looney credit for elevating his game during the NBA Playoffs. For the most part, the ongoing NBA Finals have been no exception to this. Despite playing less than 25 minutes twice in the first four games of this series, Looney has managed to hand out multiple assists in every game so far. Furthermore, dating back to Game 6 of Golden State’s Second Round series against Memphis, a span of 10 games, he has matched or exceeded his regular-season average of 2.0 assists nine times.
Despite the consistency displayed in this area, one can’t help but be suspect of Looney’s NBA prop bets total for today of 2.5 assists. After all, this line is half of an assist more than he averaged over the entire season. While Looney is garnering more playing time during the postseason, his minutes have fluctuated greatly in The Finals. After playing only 17 minutes in Game 3, he logged 28 in the Game 4 win last Friday. Oddly enough, Looney surpassed 2.5 assists in Game 3 and failed to do so in Game 4.
Based on what we have seen from the Warriors rotation so far in this particular series, bettors should assume that Looney will be on the floor for between 20 and 25 minutes this evening. Can he really be trusted to dish out three assists in that amount of time? OddsShopper does not think so, as they project him for only 1.89 assists in Game 5 tonight. That projection translates to an astounding 71% win probability for the under on this NBA betting picks selection. Further boosting the overall value is the fact that bettors can utilize OddsShopper to find a -130 price that is currently as much as 22 cents cheaper than what other shops are requiring on the under. The final expected ROI of 26% makes this one of OddsShopper‘s favorite NBA player props of the day.
Best NBA Player Prop Today: Kevon Looney UNDER 2.5 Assists
