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MUST-BET NBA Player Props Picks Tonight Celtics vs. Warriors Game 1

Henry John



The long and winding road that is the NBA season has finally reached its culmination. Game 1 of the 2022 NBA Finals is on tap for Thursday night as the Boston Celtics take on the Golden State Warriors for the right to be crowned league champions. Just like any other major sporting event, the options for betting on The Finals are seemingly endless. All season long, we have been fixated on betting NBA player props in this column. There is no reason to give up on what got us here now. Even though the NBA prop bets market figures to be as locked in as it has been at any point for The Finals, there are still plenty of bets worth considering for Game 1.

Bettors can easily enhance their NBA player props handicapping process further by including the redesigned OddsShopper as well as NBA betting tips today. Thanks to this tremendous tool, finding the best NBA player props bets today is as simple as three quick steps: Filter, sort, bet.

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Best NBA Player Prop Bets & Expert Betting Picks Today

Derrick White O/U 8.5 Points

Acquire from San Antonio at the trade deadline, guard Derrick White has come up huge on multiple occasions for the Celtics on their run through the Eastern Conference Playoffs. Games 4-6 of the conference finals against Miami saw him provide an outstanding all-around impact. White played 41, 29 and 33 minutes in those three games, respectively. He managed to score in double figures in each game, thus smashing today’s NBA player props points prop of 8.5 on all three occasions. Even in Game 7, when the Celtics shortened up their rotation and White only saw 19 minutes of playing time, he still nearly exceeded the prop line by scoring 8 points.

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Based on White’s regular-season numbers, the NBA prop bets total for Game 1 today is actually on the low side. He averaged over 14 points per game as a starter with the Spurs and also scored 11.0 points on average after being traded to Boston. Dating back to Game 4 of the Celtics’ first-round series, White has scored at least nine points in nine of the 12 games in which he has played. Arguably the biggest question mark when it comes to being confident in betting over this NBA betting picks total is the fact that White’s minutes have fluctuated in some games. However, with this only being Game 1 of The Finals, bettors can assume that the rotations will be deeper for both coaches tonight than they might be at later points in a prolonged series.

Despite the fact that White has cleared his NBA prop bets scoring total with regularity throughout the playoffs, OddsShopper actually shows that the prices are leaning towards the under ahead of Thursday’s matchup. Favorable -104 odds only further bolster an over prediction that shapes up as one of OddsShopper‘s favorite player props of the day. White projects for 10.29 points, which translates to a 63% win probability. When paired with the preferred price point, this wager is granted a 23% expected ROI.

Best NBA Player Prop Today: Derrick White OVER 8.5 Points

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Andrew Wiggins O/U 6.5 Rebounds

The theme of Andrew Wiggins rising to the occasion on the glass for the Warriors in these playoffs is nothing new. After averaging just 4.5 rebounds per game during the regular season, he has provided a massive boost on the boards for Golden State. Look no further than the Dubs’ closeout win over Dallas in the Western Conference Finals in which Wiggins snagged 10 rebounds. In Game 3 of that series, he had 11 boards. Going back to the very start of the playoffs, Wiggins has managed to exceed his regular season rebounding average in all but two games. He has finished with at least a half-dozen rebounds ten times in the postseason.

As his rebounding numbers have risen, so too have Wiggins’ totals across the NBA prop bets market. The betting line for Game 1 of the NBA Finals sits at 6.5 boards, two full tallies more than Wiggins’ season-long average in this statistical category. Yet, with how effective he has been on the glass in the playoffs, the idea of him achieving the seven rebounds necessary to go over is hardly that far-fetched. Based on how the prop total compares to his stats, however, it is no surprise to find that OddsShopper lists the odds heavily juiced to the under across the entire betting market.

The under on this prop may appear to be the safer play based on the associated pricing. However, Awesemo’s projections actually tab Wiggins for 7.03 rebounds tonight, resulting in a 55% probability that he goes over the betting number. That projection yields a great deal of value when paired with the plus-money prices currently listed. OddsShopper can help bettors locate +125 odds that offer up to nine cents of additional value compared to those at other sportsbooks. When one pairs the optimal odds along with Awesemo’s projection, the expected ROI for this over prediction is determined to be 25%.

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Best NBA Player Prop Today: Andrew Wiggins OVER 6.5 Rebounds

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Stephen Curry O/U 27.5 Points

Who out there is daring enough to bet against the greatest three-point shooter of all time on the NBA Finals stage? It may take guts to fade the great Stephen Curry tonight, but there are numerous factors working against him. Let’s start with the NBA player props market itself, which has Curry’s points total set at 27.5 for Game 1. That is a full two points higher than what he averaged over the course of the full regular season. It is also a number that Curry fell well short of in each of the Warriors’ last two games. In the Western Conference Finals, he failed to even crack the 25-point mark in three of five games, let alone score the 28 needed to exceed this prop total.

From a matchup standpoint, the Celtics might actually be Curry’s worst nightmare. From a surface-level standpoint, Golden State and Boston ranked 1-2 in defensive efficiency this season. Digging a bit deeper, it’s no secret that the Celtics will look to have NBA Defensive Player of the Year Marcus Smart be the primary defender on Curry. According to Second Spectrum, when Smart guards Curry, the Warriors’ offensive rating is just 85.0 going back to the 2014-15 season. To put that into perspective, Oklahoma City had the worst offensive rating in the NBA during this past regular season at 103.7 points per 100 possessions.

Of course, Curry’s primary weapon is the three-pointer. Well, the outlook is quite bleak for him and Golden State as a whole on that front as well in this NBA Finals matchup. In the second regular season matchup between these teams, Boston held the Warriors to 22% shooting from three-point range as a team. Add in the fact that OddsShopper indicates -110 odds are up to 15 cents cheaper than what some sportsbooks are requiring and an under wager on Curry’s scoring prop has several factors going for it. OddsShopper deems it to be a positive ROI opportunity. The tool’s projection for Curry in Game 1 is 26.27 points, over 1.5 short of the 28 needed to clear the NBA props line.

Best NBA Player Prop Today: Stephen Curry UNDER 27.5 Points

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