NBA Player Props & Betting Picks Today

After a wild Game 1, the NBA Finals resume on Sunday evening. For the Boston Celtics, tonight’s game sets up as an opportunity to take a stranglehold of the series. Meanwhile, the Golden State Warriors are essentially in must-win mode considering that the next two games of the series are in Boston. Thursday night’s series-opener provided plenty of interesting NBA betting picks and storylines to monitor moving forward. The lines and outlook of the NBA player props market have been altered greatly with the first game of the Finals in the books. Bettors are now tasked with picking their spots accordingly after getting some semblance of how these two teams will match up over the course of the series.

Bettors can easily enhance their NBA player props handicapping process further by including the redesigned OddsShopper as well as NBA betting tips today. Thanks to this tremendous tool, finding the best NBA player props bets today is as simple as three quick steps: Filter, sort, bet.

Best NBA Player Prop Bets & Expert Betting Picks Today

Robert Williams III O/U 6.5 Rebounds

It has been somewhat difficult to get a great read on Robert Williams‘ production and role for the Celtics in these NBA Playoffs. This has been more so the result of him missing several games due to continued knee soreness than anything. However, he has been able to play in each of Boston’s last five games including Game 1 of the Finals. Williams’ playing time has fluctuated a great deal, but his minutes played haven’t exactly correlated positively with his statistical production.

After two very quiet efforts in Games 6 and 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals, Williams bounced back in Game 1 against the Warriors on Thursday. Across 24 minutes of action, he compiled a line of 8 points, six rebounds and a whopping four blocked shots. The half-dozen boards saw him finish just half a rebound shy of the NBA picks total today of 6.5 rebounds. The fact that he averaged 9.6 rebounds per game this season suggests that the NBA player props line is set on the low side. The Warriors were a top-5 team in terms of rebound rate this season. However, Kevon Looney is arguably the only player on Golden State’s roster who is truly capable of banging with Williams down low.

Despite the fact that Williams averaged over three rebounds more than the listed NBA prop bets total, OddsShopper is actually showing plus-money prices on him to exceed 6.5 boards in Game 2 on Sunday. The market juice to the under runs contradictory to Awesemo’s projection for Williams to finish with 7.94 rebounds. That projection alone produces a win probability of 68% for this over wager. Throw in the optimal price point of +105 on top of that and the expected ROI value for this prop bet comes in at a massive 39%.

With all of this being said, perhaps the fact that Williams has failed to eclipse 6.5 rebounds in each of the last three games is enough to give some bettors pause. If you are among those who feel that betting on Williams to corral seven rebounds or more tonight is too risky, perhaps winning a little FREE MONEY from BetMGM would be more to your liking. All you have to do is bet $10 to win $200 if either the Celtics or Warriors hit just one 3-pointer tonight. Given how heavily both teams rely on their perimeter shooting, it seems pretty safe to call this offer a lock.

Best NBA Player Prop Today: Robert Williams III OVER 6.5 Rebounds

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Marcus Smart O/U 14.5 Points

Another Celtics player who has been plagued by injuries during these NBA Playoffs is Marcus Smart. After being fairly quiet offensively in Games 5 and 6 of the Eastern Conference Finals, the 28-year-old has turned up the heat in each of the team’s last two contests. Smart scored 24 points in Boston’s Game 7 victory over Miami last round. He then proceeded to follow that up with a white-hot shooting effort in Game 1 of the NBA Finals. Smart connected on 7-of-11 field goal attempts including 4-of-7 3-point tries to score 18 points in Thursday’s win.

Of course, the fact that Smart had to shoot over 50% from beyond the arc to score that many points is a feat that he is unlikely to replicate in Game 2. This is especially true considering that the Warriors were a top-10 defense as far as defending the 3-point arc is concerned this season. As a team, Boston shot over 51% from deep in Game 1. That is a whole lot higher than the 34.6% that Golden State allowed on the season. Despite Smart’s impressive individual scoring outputs in each of the last two games, the NBA prop bets market lists his points total at 14.5 ahead of Sunday’s matchup. In actuality, that line is set over two full notches higher than the 12.1 points he averaged over the course of the full season.

At the time of writing, OddsShopper is indicating very slight juice to the under on Smart’s NBA player props scoring total. However, this is not the case at all sportsbooks in the market. Thus, optimal -110 odds actually afford bettors up to ten cents of value over alternative listings. When one combines these odds with Awesemo’s projection of 13.57 points, the expected ROI on this under prediction is deemed to be 10%.

Best NBA Player Prop Today: Marcus Smart UNDER 14.5 Points

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Jordan Poole O/U 13.5 Points

Jordan Poole was merely one of several Warriors players who struggled offensively in Game 1 of the Finals. For the first time since Golden State’s lopsided defeat in Game 5 of the second round, Poole failed to crack double figures on the scoreboard Thursday night. Perhaps the bright lights of this stage overwhelmed the 22-year-old? Poole shot 2-for-7 from the field across 25 minutes and finished with just 9 points in the loss. That output was less than 50% of the 18.5 points that he averaged on a per-game basis this season.

At the start of the NBA Playoffs, Poole was the hottest thing going in the Bay Area. As Stephen Curry got healthy and reclaimed the lead point guard role, it was no surprise to see Poole’s minutes decline and become less predictable on a game-to-game basis. Even so, he has still supplied several massive scoring outputs for Golden State throughout the postseason. Thus, it is a bit surprising to see the NBA player props market listing his points total at just 13.5 ahead of Sunday’s Game 2. After all, Poole exceeded that line in four of five games in the Western Conference Finals. In three of those efforts, he did so with ease, scoring no less than 16 points.

While the Celtics’ elite defensive play certainly presents a major challenge to Poole and the Warriors, OddsShopper is extremely confident in his ability to eclipse the lowered NBA betting picks total today. A projection of 15.98 points results in a 65% win probability for a bet to the over on 13.5 points. OddsShopper can also help bettors locate favorable -112 odds that yield an advantage of nearly ten cents over other listings in the market. All told, this over prediction is given a 22% expected ROI valuation. This makes it one of OddsShopper‘s favorite NBA prop bets on the board for Game 2 of the Finals.

Best NBA Player Prop Today: Jordan Poole OVER 13.5 Points

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