4/7/22 MUST-BET NBA Player Props | Giannis Antetokounmpo

Only four days remain in the NBA regular season. While all 10 postseason and play-in tournament spots in each conference have been accounted for, there are still plenty of seeding battles yet to be decided. A pair of critical Eastern Conference collisions headline Thursday evening’s seven-game slate. One of these features massive seeding implications atop the conference as the Boston Celtics tangle with the Milwaukee Bucks on national TV. Needless to say, it is a great night to lock in some NBA betting picks and player props and enjoy the action.

You can easily enhance your NBA player props handicapping process further by including the redesigned OddsShopper as well as NBA betting tips today. Thanks to this tremendous tool, finding the best NBA player props bets today is as simple as three quick steps: Filter, sort, bet.

With help from OddsShopper, the following article highlights three must-bet NBA player props for Thursday’s hoops slate.

Best NBA Player Prop Bets & Expert Betting Picks Today

With OddsShopper, finding the best NBA player props betting odds is fast and simple. All users have to do is filter the prop selections, sort the page and find the best pick to bet. The process is extremely quick and highly effective. Try out the tool for yourself tonight with the three featured prop bets below!

Giannis Antetokounmpo Over 4.5 Assists (-124, FanDuel)

The first featured NBA player props prediction for this evening stems from the aforementioned clash between the Celtics and Bucks. Milwaukee superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo is arguably the best all-around player in the sport today. While he likely will not win the MVP Award this year, this by no means understates the season he has had. Antetokounmpo has averaged 29.9 points and 11.6 rebounds over the course of the full season. He had a streak of seven straight games played with a double-double snapped in the Bucks’ most recent contest.

Of course, the end of the double-double streak was largely due to the fact that Antetokounmpo only played 24 minutes on Tuesday. Milwaukee blew out the Chicago Bulls to clinch the Central Division crown. While Antetokounmpo actually came up short of his scoring and rebounding averages, he exceeded his assists average with seven in Tuesday’s game. On the season, he has totaled a solid 5.8 dimes per contest. This mark is over one full assist more than tonight’s NBA betting line of 4.5.

From a mathematical standpoint, the value is clearly on the over for this NBA props prediction. Furthermore, one could argue that the magnitude of the game will bring out Antetokounmpo’s best as well. While the Celtics are the top defensive team in the NBA in terms of efficiency, the likelihood that Boston keys in on Antetokounmpo could lead to him finding open teammates more frequently. While OddsShopper shows that the market is juiced to the over, bettors can find a 15-cent advantage over alternative listings by targeting a reasonable -124 price. Awesemo projects Giannis for 5.61 helpers and gives the over a win probability of 66%.

Jonas Valanciunas Under 12.5 Rebounds (-124, FanDuel)

After missing Tuesday’s game due to right ankle soreness, New Orleans Pelicans center Jonas Valanciunas confirmed that he will play this evening. He carries no injury designation into tonight’s contest against the tank that is the Portland Trail Blazers. While a matchup with the Blazers may seem like a major positive for any and all NBA player props on the surface, there is actually good reason to consider betting under 12.5 rebounds for Valanciunas tonight.

This handicap can start with the simple fact that he has averaged nearly one full rebound less (11.6) than tonight’s NBA betting total this season. Over his last nine games played, Valanciunas finished with double-digit boards on eight occasions. The only time he failed to do so was last weekend when he exited early with the injury and only played 22 minutes. However, despite consistently rebounding in double figures, he has only exceeded the NBA player props line of 12.5 boards twice over that same span. 

The Blazers offer very little from both a statistical and personnel standpoint. In all honesty, center Drew Eubanks has been one of Portland’s best players down the stretch. He managed to hold Valanciunas to 11 rebounds when the two teams played just last week. Awesemo’s projection of 10.90 boards essentially falls right in line with Valanciunas’ production from that previous matchup. Even more importantly, it falls over two rebounds short of the 13 he would need to go over the NBA betting number. With OddsShopper showing -124 as the best price available, Awesemo gives this under prediction a 26% ROI to go along with an extremely favorable 70% win probability.

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Jarred Vanderbilt Over 7.5 Rebounds (+108, FanDuel)

It really looked like the Minnesota Timberwolves forgot they had a game on Tuesday night when they were embarrassed on their home floor by Washington. All five starters had plus/minus differentials of -10 or worse. Jarred Vanderbilt actually finished with the best of the lot, however, he only played 20 minutes total in the game. Despite seeing over five minutes fewer than what he has averaged on the season, Vanderbilt still managed to corral a half-dozen rebounds. On the season, he has contributed 8.5 boards per game. This average sits one full rebound above Thursday’s NBA player props line of 7.5.

Interestingly enough, OddsShopper lists a plus-money price on Vanderbilt to exceed 7.5 boards across the entire NBA betting market. Perhaps part of the reason for this prop being juiced to the under is the fact that Vanderbilt has trended solely in that direction of late. He has finished at or below the seven-rebound mark in each of the last six games. While he has proven repeatedly that he can put up big numbers on the glass in limited minutes, it is also worth noting that his playing time has seen a frustrating degree of fluctuation recently.

Assuming Vanderbilt sees at least his average of 25 minutes in tonight’s game, it is hard to pass up plus-money odds for him to go over the NBA props line. The Wolves take on a San Antonio Spurs team that only ranks 20th in the league in rebound rate this season. In addition, fellow big man Jaden McDaniels is tabbed as questionable for tonight’s game with an ankle injury. Note too that optimal +108 odds shown by OddsShopper afford up to eight cents of value relative to other prices in the market. Awesemo has Vanderbilt pegged for 8.12 rebounds in tonight’s game. The favorable price helps to boost the expected ROI value of this over prediction to 17%.

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Henry John

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