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MUST-BET NBA Player Props Picks Tonight ECF Game 4 | Jayson Tatum

Henry John



The Eastern Conference Finals continue on Monday evening with a Game 4 matchup between the Miami Heat and Boston Celtics. Despite being without Jimmy Butler in the second half of Game 3, the Heat managed to hang on and reclaim home court advantage in this series. With the Celtics now facing a 2-1 series deficit, NBA betting odds have favored them quite heavily to win a crucial Game 4 on their home floor. Bettors who may not wish to tangle with the sizeable point spread for tonight’s game can find some terrific alternatives in the NBA player props market.

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Bettors can easily enhance their NBA player props handicapping process further by including the redesigned OddsShopper as well as NBA betting tips today. Thanks to this tremendous tool, finding the best NBA player props bets today is as simple as three quick steps: Filter, sort, bet.

Best NBA Player Prop Bets & Expert Betting Picks Today

Victor Oladipo O/U 10.5 Points

The identity of the Miami Heat is on the defensive end of the floor. Although he missed the vast majority of the regular season, it seems safe to say that Victor Oladipo has bought into that identity. His play defensively on Saturday night was a pleasure to watch. Four steals helped the Heat hang on for a massive road win to retake the lead in the Eastern Conference Finals. Oladipo now has seven thefts on the series in total. Unfortunately, his impact as a scorer on the other end of the floor has been much less consistent. While Oladipo did provide 14 points in Game 2, he only managed to score five points apiece in Games 1 and 3.

Combine Oladipo’s shooting woes with the fact that he typically has failed to play more than 20-25 minutes per game in these playoffs and there is a real case to be made for betting under his NBA prop bets total today. Oladipo did average 12.4 points per game while playing less than 22 minutes on the season. However, regular-season basketball is a whole lot different from the Eastern Conference Finals in terms of defensive intensity. The fact that the Celtics thrive on defense themselves and rank second in defensive efficiency only furthers the argument against Oladipo scoring more than 10.5 points.

At the time of writing, OddsShopper is actually listing slight juice to the over on this scoring prop at most sportsbooks in the NBA player props market. While this pricing may seem to make sense given Oladipo’s season numbers, it certainly contradicts the fact that he has shot just 5-21 from the field spanning the first three games of this series. The juice also opens the door for some better prices on our preferred under wager. Awesemo only projects Oladipo to score 9.22 points in Game 4. This results in a 60% win probability for the under. When paired with optimal -108 odds, the ROI value is set at 15%.

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Prop Pick: Victor Oladipo UNDER 10.5 Points | Get $200 FREE on BetMGM if Either Team Hits a Three

Jayson Tatum O/U 6.5 Rebounds

The Celtics had a major scare late in Saturday’s game when Jayson Tatum had to go to the locker room with an apparent shoulder injury. It ultimately proved to be no more than a stinger. Boston’s best player was able to return to the game down the stretch and is considered probable to play in tonight’s critical Game 4. Tatum had by far his worst game of this series to date on Saturday. He only scored ten points and also finished with a half-dozen rebounds. Relative to his season average of 8.0 boards per game, that total was quite underwhelming.

What the poor showing has done is cause an adjustment in the NBA player props market regarding Tatum’s rebound total ahead of Game 4. Despite the fact that the posted line of 6.5 boards is 1.5 rebounds below his season average, OddsShopper is showing favorable plus-money prices on the over across much of the market. While Tatum has only exceeded this prop total three times in the last seven games, he has provided at least six rebounds in six of those contests. That level of consistency adds further appeal to go along with the profitable odds.

Considering how the Celtics were dominated by Bam Adebayo inside on Saturday, one has to imagine they will hit the glass with more intensity this evening. As the best player on the team, Tatum will undoubtedly play a part in this. With the status of Robert Williams still in jeopardy, players like Tatum could have even more onus to make an impact on the boards. While Awesemo’s exact projection of 6.80 rebounds does not yield a huge statistical edge, keep in mind that OddsShopper can help one find up to +120 odds on the over. At that terrific price point, the expected ROI value for this prediction is set at 14%.

Now, if you believe it is not worth the risk of betting on Tatum to snare seven rebounds or more tonight, a tremendous alternative option is available thanks to BetMGM. How does some FREE money sound? Through BetMGM, you can get your hands on just that during tonight’s Eastern Conference Finals Game 4! All you have to do is bet $10 to win $200 if either the Heat or Celtics hit just one 3-pointer tonight. Heck, Tatum himself is likely to cash that wager for you!

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Pick: Jayson Tatum OVER 6.5 Rebounds (+120, BetMGM) | Get $200 FREE on BetMGM if Either Team Hits a Three

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Marcus Smart O/U 4.5 Rebounds 

Among the numerous players who had to exit Game 3 due to injuries was Celtics point guard, Marcus Smart. The newly-crowned NBA Defensive Player of the Year rolled his ankle badly but did manage to rejoin the contest and even hit a three-pointer after the fact. Smart already missed Game 1 of these Eastern Conference Finals with an unrelated injury. There is a real possibility that he doesn’t play or is limited in Monday night’s critical Game 4. Knowing that he will be playing on a bum ankle if he does suit up, it’s hard to pass up the chance to bet the under on 4.5 rebounds.

From a statistical standpoint, Smart turned plenty of heads in Game 2 of this series when he fell a single rebound shy of posting a triple-double. On the full season, however, such performances on the glass have been few and far between. Smart has only averaged 3.8 boards per game on the year. While he has finished with no fewer than four rebounds in each of his last five games played, Smart has actually only exceeded the NBA player props total three times in his last eight contests. It’s also worth pointing out that the Heat match the Celtics as a top-10 team in terms of Rebound Rate.

Betting on Smart to surpass his per-game rebounding average by over a full rebound would be tough on a normal night. Throw in his ankle injury and a stout rebounding opponent and Awesemo believes that the under is the way to go. OddsShopper seems to hint that the NBA prop bets market agrees with that notion. The odds on Smart’s rebounding prop are heavily juiced to the under across all major sportsbooks. That being said, the optimal -150 price point does yield as much as 15 cents of value relative to other market listings. Awesemo’s exact projection of 3.62 rebounds contends that Smart has a 70% chance of staying under the betting line. At the preferred price, the ROI value is said to be 17% even with the 50 cents worth of juice.

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Pick: Marcus Smart UNDER 4.5 Rebounds | Get $200 FREE on BetMGM

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