NBA Player Props & Betting Picks Today

After a day off for fans to collect their breaths and mourn whatever that performance was by the Phoenix Suns on Sunday night, the NBA Playoffs resume this evening. Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals is on deck with the Boston Celtics taking on the Miami Heat. These two teams actually only matched up twice during the regular season. Many are predicting defense to rule this series, and rightfully so given how strong both teams are at that end. That being said, there are still several NBA player props worth considering. Perhaps a few under predictions can even help bettors to capitalize on the defense-first handicap.

Bettors can easily enhance their NBA player props handicapping process further by including the redesigned OddsShopper as well as NBA betting tips today. Thanks to this tremendous tool, finding the best NBA player props bets today is as simple as three quick steps: Filter, sort, bet.

Best NBA Player Prop Bets & Expert Betting Picks Today

Jaylen Brown O/U 23.5 Points (Get $200 FREE on BetMGM)

It does not take a rocket scientist to realize that the Celtics face a brutal situational spot in Game 1 tonight. Just over 48 hours removed from getting past Milwaukee in a grueling seven-game series, the Celtics must now turn around and face one of the toughest defensive teams in the NBA on the road. Scoring does not figure to come easily for either side tonight, let alone over the course of the full series. Despite the fact that the prop line of 23.5 points falls right in line with what Boston’s Jaylen Brown averaged this season, betting the under is a much more worthwhile investment.

On the full season, Brown averaged 23.6 points per game. In the playoffs, he has only managed to exceed today’s line on three occasions. All three of those performances came in the Eastern Conference Semifinals with the most recent taking place in Game 5. While Brown has finished with either 22 or 23 points five times in the postseason, a similar total tonight would cash the under on his points prop.

It also does not help that the Celtics go from facing an awful perimeter defense to a Heat team that was the best in the Association at defending the 3-point shot all season. Brown made multiple 3-pointers in six of the seven games against Milwaukee last round. That figures to be much tougher to accomplish in the conference finals.

Taking everything into consideration, it comes as no surprise that OddsShopper shows the NBA betting market as being juiced to the under. Optimal -116 odds are up to 14 cents cheaper than other listings. Awesemo only projects Brown for 22.57 points and gives the under on this prop a 55% win probability.

Best NBA Player Prop Bet Today: Jaylen Brown UNDER 23.5 Points (-116, FanDuel)

Gabe Vincent O/U 2.5 Assists (Get $200 FREE on BetMGM)

With the Heat already having ruled Kyle Lowry out for Tuesday’s Game 1, bettors have plenty of reason to pursue playing over 2.5 assists for Gabe Vincent, the man who will start in his place. Vincent has largely been able to eclipse this total in these playoffs with or without Lowry in the lineup. However, when Lowry has not been available, Vincent has finished with less than three assists just once in the playoffs to date. Most recently, he dished out six assists in the Heat’s Game 6 closeout win over Philadelphia.

Considering how Vincent has regularly cleared the total throughout the postseason, it is no surprise that OddsShopper is showing the prices juiced to the over. In making the case that it is still worthwhile to lay the juiced odds, one should note that Vincent averaged 3.1 assists per game over the course of the full season. Thus, the betting line of 2.5 is also a buy-low opportunity relative to his standard rate of production. With Lowry out, Vincent will see no less than 25 minutes of action in Game 1. Vincent averaged 3.1 assists during the regular season despite only playing 23 minutes per game.

At the time of writing, OddsShopper indicates that the optimal -160 odds on Vincent to exceed 2.5 assists in Game 1 are up to 10 cents cheaper than other listings in the betting market. Despite the heavy juice, OddsShopper is not shying away from betting the over. A projection of 3.23 assists results in a 62% probability that Vincent clears the prop total. Despite the odds, this is still deemed to be a positive ROI wager.

Best NBA Player Prop Bet Today: Gabe Vincent OVER 2.5 Assists (-160, FanDuel)

P.J. Tucker O/U 5.5 Rebounds (Get $200 FREE on BetMGM)

There are several plus-money opportunities worth considering on the prop menu today. One of the options that OddsShopper favors is playing over 5.5 total rebounds for Heat big man P.J. Tucker. This prop total mirrors Tucker’s per-game rebounding average from the full season. Tucker has shown an ability to regularly go over this number in the playoffs; he eclipsed 5.5 rebounds three times in the first round and had no less than five rebounds in any game against Atlanta. He then went on to go over the prop line in three of Miami’s six games last round against Philadelphia.

When it comes to this Eastern Conference Finals matchup, both teams feature stifling defense as the hallmark of their game. More missed shots naturally will breed more rebounding opportunities. The Celtics and Heat also rank seventh and eighth in rebound rate on the full season, respectively. With the absence of a truly dominant big man in this series, forwards like Tucker should have plenty of opportunities to make an impact on the glass. Tucker has also been a firm fixture in Miami’s playoff rotation as well. This only makes the prices shown by OddsShopper for his rebounding prop all the more peculiar.

With the props market juiced to the under, OddsShopper believes it is worth taking a stab on Tucker to eclipse his season rebounding average in Game 1. Although his projection of 5.81 rebounds does not yield much of a statistical edge, favorable pricing is key to boosting the overall value of this prediction. With OddsShopper listing +112 as the best available offering, the expected ROI for this wager is determined to be 11%.

Now, if you would prefer to avoid betting on a grizzled veteran like Tucker to show out in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals, do not fret. After all, BetMGM is literally giving away FREE money on tonight’s game. All you have to do is bet $10 to win $200 if either the Celtics or Heat hit just one 3-pointer tonight. Even though both teams will flex their muscles defensively in this series, you can be sure that there will be far more than just one 3-pointer creasing the nylon in Game 1.

Best NBA Player Prop Bet Today: P.J. Tucker OVER 5.5 Rebounds (+112, FanDuel)

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