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A pair of in-state NFL rivals are set to go head-to-head on Sunday as the New York Jets take on the Buffalo Bills. While this game marks the culmination of the regular season for both sides, the host Bills already know that they are playoff-bound. The only question remaining is whether or not Buffalo will host a Wild Card game next weekend by virtue of winning the AFC East Division. The Bills can clinch their second consecutive division crown with a win over the Jets on Sunday afternoon. Given those stakes and the talent disparity between the two sides, it comes as no surprise to see the NFL betting odds favoring the home team by a very wide margin.

New York Jets vs. Buffalo Bills NFL Best Bets & Picks Today

Also be sure to check out OddsShopper’s matchups page, breaking down all the data for each game on a given slate.

New York Jets (4-12, 1-6 Away) vs. Buffalo Bills (10-6, 5-3 Home)
Date: Sunday, Jan. 9, 2021
Start Time: 4:25 p.m. EST
Location: Highmark Stadium — Orchard Park, NY
TV Coverage: CBS

The Jets were eliminated from playoff contention several weeks ago. However, Robert Saleh’s team deserves a lot of credit for continuing to play hard down the stretch of the season. Just last week, New York had the defending Super Bowl Champion Tampa Bay Buccaneers on the ropes. If not for a play-calling mishap on a fourth-down late in the game, the Jets might very well have pulled off the stunning NFL betting upset. Instead, they had to settle for a four-point loss.

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While the Jets have been very feisty at home this season, they have largely been a no-show when playing away from MetLife Stadium. Sunday’s game in Buffalo will be rookie quarterback Zach Wilson‘s first against the Bills. He missed the first meeting between the teams this season due to an injury. Unfortunately, he will be without much in the way of playmakers. New York’s top two wideouts, Corey Davis and Elijah Moore, have been out for some time. In addition, Braxton Berrios is officially listed as doubtful for Week 18 after providing the Jets with a major spark last week.

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Sunday’s home game marks an opportunity for the Bills to end the regular season on a four-game winning streak. Along with locking up the division title and a home playoff game, Buffalo appears poised to enter the playoffs with plenty of momentum. Of course, it was a road win over the New England Patriots two weeks ago that put the Bills in a position to win the division. Quarterback Josh Allen was awful last week throwing three interceptions, but it proved not to matter against a bad Atlanta Falcons outfit. After Buffalo routed the Jets 45-17 in the first meeting between the teams this season, they are massive NFL betting favorites for this week’s rematch.

One encouraging aspect of the Bills’ win last week was the run game. While the performance notably came against an awful defense, 100-yard rushers have been a rare occurrence over the past two seasons. Devin Singletary went for 110 and a pair of scores against Atlanta. Allen also ran for two touchdowns and 81 yards in his own right. In terms of adjusted DVOA metrics, Buffalo ranks eighth in total offensive efficiency and third in defensive efficiency. Many NFL betting analysts view this team as a championship contender even after losing top cover corner Tre’Davious White to a season-ending knee injury.

New York Jets vs. Buffalo Bills Best NFL Betting Odds & Picks

With OddsShopper, finding the best NFL betting odds for any game is fast and simple. Finding the best Jets – Bills betting picks and odds requires only three quick steps: Filter, sort, bet. The process is extremely quick and highly effective. OddsShopper removes the headache of comparing odds and lines across various sportsbooks. Try out the tool for yourself today!

Tail Awesemo's Sports Betting Picks Today!

Below are the current best lines and prices for each of the three main Jets – Bills game wagers according to OddsShopper.

Moneyline

Jets: (+800) — Caesars
Bills: (-1100) — PointsBet

Point Spread

Jets: +16.5 (-110) — BetMGM, PointsBet
Bills: -15.5 (-110) — DraftKings

Total 

Over: 40.5 (-110) — PointsBet, DraftKings
Under: 41 (-110) — BetMGM, Caesars

Jets vs. Bills NFL Betting Trends

  • Jets are 4-2 ATS in their last six games.
  • The total has gone over in four of the Jets’ last five games.
  • Bills are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games against opponents coming off a loss.
  • Bills are 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven games against AFC East Division opponents.
  • The loser of the first Jets vs. Bills head-to-head matchup is on a 4-0 ATS run in the second meeting of the season between the teams.

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Jets vs. Bills NFL Betting Picks and Predictions

When it comes to defense, the Jets have been historically bad this season. New York has allowed the most points per game (29.8) of any team this season. They also have the worst adjusted defensive efficiency in the NFL. Making that statistic even more troublesome is the fact that the Jets have been adjusted to account for one of the easiest schedules played! They certainly had no answers for the Bills’ offensive game plan in the first matchup between the teams this season. With Buffalo needing a win on Sunday to clinch the division, there is no reason to hold back.

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As a result, OddsShopper recommends that bettors play over a low total of 40.5 for this Jets – Bills game. The line has notably dropped quite a bit from opening to now. An overmatched Jets defense figures to allow at least 30 points. Aside from winds gusting over 20 MPH, the weather shouldn’t be a huge factor in Western New York for this game. Assuming the NFL betting odds are correct and garbage time ensues in the second half of this game, the Jets should be able to make up any difference required to send cash a ticket on the over. Awesemo’s projections give this over prediction a solid 17% expected ROI at favorable -110 odds.

Jets vs. Bills Best Bet: Over 40.5 (-110)

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Take a look at our NFL line-ups, NFL depth charts and inactive players. If you’re interested in other NFL DFS strategy for multiple game slates, head over to NFL DFS projected ownership, Awesemo's NFL Data Central, NFL DFS rankings, and DFS NFL stacking. View our FanDuel NFL DFS ownership rankings and our DraftKings NFL DFS rankings. We also have NFL DFS single-game projections and single-game ownership projections.

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