While the rest of the country preemptively took off today ahead of the July 4 weekend, it’s business as usual with a full slate of action on the diamond. Be it a No Run First Inning or a Yes Run First Inning bet, the aim here is to sift through the data, starting pitching and the ballparks — all to get the best opportunity in the first inning. The best part about these is only needing six outs to cash! Here are the best value plays for tonight’s action with the best NRFI bets for Friday, July 1.
Best NRFI Bets Today: No Run First Inning Picks 7/1
Braves vs. Reds Pick | Claim $200 FREE at BetMGM
There’s no better place to be than Great American Ballpark for a Braves team that’s put up at least four runs over each of their last three games. The Reds aren’t too bad at home either, notching an MLB-best 0.97 runs per first inning (RPFI) at home. Regardless of park, Atlanta hasn’t been a strong first inning team, although it does average 0.47 RPFI on the road. This is about the park overcoming any pitching matchup, as Great American is hitter friendly enough to boost mediocre hitting over any advantage to a pitcher. The latter really only applying to Max Fried, who still faces a Reds team that scores more than anyone in the first inning. Mike Minor and his 7.71 ERA might not make it to the second.
Best NRFI Bet Today: Braves vs. Reds YRFI (-115 BetMGM)
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Orioles vs. Twins Pick | Claim $200 FREE at BetMGM
Only Detroit (Sorry, Alex) scores fewer runs per first inning on the road than the Orioles. It’s that bad for Baltimore, with a 0.24 RPFI road average. Minnesota scores a lot at home on average, with a 0.75 RPFI number at home. After playing the entire week in Cleveland, the Twins return home to Minnesota, and while it’s not a cross-country trip, the Orioles aren’t close to home. The expected culprit tonight is O’s pitcher Spenser Watkins, who enters the game with a 5.14 ERA, against Joe Ryan, who has pitched to a 6-3 record and 3.20 ERA. Watkins comes off his best start of the season and has a decent matchup against the Twins, while Ryan should continue the trend of home pitching dominating the Orioles in the first.
Best NRFI Bet Today: Orioles vs. Twins NRFI (-105 BetMGM)
Marlins vs. Nationals Pick | Claim $200 FREE at BetMGM
Washington is looking to put some outside pressure on the Marlins to avoid being the bottom team in the NL East. The Nationals are normally a strong team to target at home with a YRFI play, as they average 0.68 RPFI at home while giving up 0.68 RPFI to visitors — third worst in baseball. Miami’s offense is pretty much out of the equation, as it averages just 0.31 RPFI on the road and has not seen a first inning run over its last three games. Josiah Gray has pitched well enough to limit the Marlins in the first inning, but maybe not as much for Trevor Rogers, at least on the surface. While his numbers aren’t great, Rogers has only surrendered one run in the first inning over his last five starts.
Best NRFI Bet Today: Marlins vs. Nationals NRFI (+100 BetMGM)
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