The Super Bowl offers roughly six billion ways to place a wager, but one route that offers a large reward is wagering on the MVP and who scores the first touchdown. The largest factor in building the case for the MVP is typically which team is going to win but the narrative never hurts either. Only one player has ever won the MVP as a losing player (linebacker Chuck Howley for the Dallas Cowboys in 1971), so building the game script is vital when placing a wager. There are a couple of players from each side that really stand out at the current odds to be worth the gamble for MVP, and it is easy to tack on scoring a touchdown to add to the ROI for 2022 Super Bowl Prop Bets.
Best 2022 Super Bowl Prop Bets
Note – All odds are taken from the DraftKings Sportsbook on Monday, Jan. 31.
Best Super Bowl 56 MVP Bets if the Rams Win
Both quarterbacks lead as far as odds go, which makes sense since quarterbacks have accounted for 31 MVP awards. Matthew Stafford is the leader at -105 on DraftKings Sportsbook, and that ROI is not that appealing. Kupp might have the third-lowest odds, but +650 would be a dynamite return if he becomes the eighth receiver to capture MVP. The Rams are favored by 4 points, so Kupp has the inside track as far as being on the winning team. He also is the first receiver to eclipse 2,000 yards combining the regular season and playoffs, so his campaign already has historical significance going for him. Kupp is averaging one touchdown, over 116 yards and over eight receptions per game. It is not a stretch for him to have a game like the NFC Championship, where he scored twice, racked up 11 receptions and went for over 140 yards. If he catches a winning score or Stafford has a sub-par game with his other weapons, Kupp has a chance to snag the MVP.
First touchdowns can be difficult to predict, but Kupp has the shortest odds, and that seems pretty fair given what he accomplished this season. The last time he did not score at all was Week 16, and no other receiver had more than his 38 red-zone targets during the regular season. Kupp also plays roughly half of his snaps in the slot, and that would line him up against Bengals cornerback Mike Hilton, who allowed a 72.4% catch rate and three touchdowns. If Kupp happens to get lined up against Eli Apple, that is a large advantage for Kupp, as Apple has allowed 13.3 yards per reception and three touchdowns.
The Cincinnati defense is not being given nearly enough credit for recovering from their disaster first half against the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC Championship game. They held Patrick Mahomes to one of the worst halves of football he has played, and they sparked the comeback win. Stafford closed the regular season throwing eight interceptions in his last four games and then threw zero in the first two playoff games. However, he only threw 17 times in the Wild Card game and should have thrown a second back-breaking interception last game against the San Francisco 49ers. The path for Akers comes from the Los Angeles passing game playing poorly and finding some efficiency in his own game. He has touched the ball 59 times in three playoff games, and the Rams will use him as the lead back once again.
The largest issue is he has not generated more than 55 yards rushing yet, but the Bengals were just 13th in DVOA against the run in the regular season and allowed 4.5 yards per attempt, 24th in the league. The matchup is friendlier than it looks even though the Bengals have only allowed 88 yards rushing per game, and Akers has 10 red-zone attempts in the postseason, 3.3 per game. It is very easy to imagine the Rams driving down early and Akers cashing in a short-yardage touchdown to hit the first touchdown prop and potentially catapult him toward an MVP. He would be the eighth running back to win, and returning from a torn Achilles in the summer is a narrative the media would love, even if Akers is a slightly questionable choice.
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Best Super Bowl 56 MVP Bets if the Bengals Win
The wager for scoring the first touchdown for Burrow might not be the play, considering it would have to be a rushing score and he only did that twice all season on just nine total red-zone carries. Even though his odds are just barely over +200, the Bengals pulling the upset victory would almost have to begin and end with Burrow having a magnificent game. Surely the Cincinnati defense would have to play extremely well, but defensive players as a whole have just eight total MVP awards. Burrow will certainly have to fight through a ton of pressure in this game since the Rams have sacked the quarterback 55 total times and Burrow led the league in sacks taken. He also threw for over 900 yards and eight combined touchdowns in Weeks 16 and 17, so he has shown the ability to post the gaudy numbers needed for an MVP award.
Even though the Rams finished sixth in DVOA against the pass, they also were just 14th in completion rate allowed and 11th in yards allowed per attempt. The game is still a ways away, but the Rams have been missing their top two safeties, and that could be an issue against the receiving crew for Burrow that includes Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd. There is a very strong chance that Burrow will have multiple signature plays in an upset and would be the absolute favorite from the Bengals to win the award.
Chase has been dominant through much of the season, and the playoffs have been good to him as well. His target share is 26.2% with an average depth of target of 9 yards, and he is also leading the Bengals offense in red-zone targets with three and end-zone targets with four. This team as a whole has not shown many nerves so far, and even though the Super Bowl stage is the biggest they will ever be on, Chase and Burrow have been in championship games together in college and did not blink last week when they were down 18 to Kansas City. If they get the ball first, it is conceivable they could walk down the field and score, with Chase being a focal point.
The path for Chase to win the MVP award is more complex than Burrow, as the odds reflect. It stands to reason that if Chase is having a big day, Burrow could be having an even bigger day and impact on the game. It is not breaking news that there is a reason quarterbacks represent such a large portion of the MVP awards in Super Bowl history. That does not mean it is impossible because Chase can post a line that is similar to Kupp’s with double-digit receptions, 150-plus yards and a touchdown or two. He could represent 50% of the Cincinnati passing game, and that could put them in a position for an upset. If Chase has a signature reception or burns Jalen Ramsey for a score, that could go a long way towards catapulting him toward an MVP. The narrative of being a rookie and putting up the best statistical season in franchise history and then backing it up with a Super Bowl MVP would be incredible as well.
The Super Bowl coin toss is something that anyone can have fun with, and even though history never dictates future outcomes, tails is 29-26 through 55 Super Bowls. “Tails never fails” is the old adage, and it does have the edge so far. What is an interesting side note is the last seven teams that have lost the toss have gone on to win the Super Bowl, so keep that in mind for rooting interests. Most sportsbooks will have either heads or tails around -110 to +100, so be sure to browse before placing the bet to maximize the ROI.
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