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Best NFL Betting Picks for Week 6 Sunday Night Football on BetMGM | Steelers vs. Seahawks

Mark Kieffer



NFL PrizePicks tonight DFS daily fantasy player props bets today over/under fantasy points Ben Roethlisberger Monday Night Football Week 17 Browns vs. Steelers

Tonight, Ben Roethlisberger and the Pittsburgh Steelers will host D.K. Metcalf and the Seattle Seahawks. There are various places to go for both game and NFL prop bets, and BetMGM Sportsbook is a great place to look for this Week 6 Sunday Night Football game. Here are some of the best NFL bets and picks to make tonight.

BetMGM Week 6 NFL Best Bets: Sunday Night Football

Point Spread: Seahawks +5  (-110)

Awesemo’s Sports Betting Model is the place to look before placing any bets. The model compares the current point spread the sportsbook provides compared to what the expected point spread should be, and the same for point totals and moneylines. The model shows an expected point spread of 4 points, and BetMGM has the point spread of 5. The bet has an expected ROI of 6.7%.

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Moneyline: Seahawks (+190)

This is a bet based on differences. The sports betting model gives Seattle a 38% chance of winning the game, however, BetMGM is offering Seattle at +190, which is a 34% chance of winning the game. Because our model is giving a higher chance of winning than the sportsbook, it is a bet to look at making with an expected ROI of 10.3%. What that means is even though the odds are against Seattle winning the game, in the long run, if you can find picks that you believe have a higher probability of happening than the sportsbook does, you will win. If you use our model and can find discrepancies like this throughout the season, you have a great chance to be profitable.

Ben Roethlisberger Pass Completions: Over 23.5 (-135)

When looking for player props, Awesemo’s Player Props Tool is the place to see what players are projected to do compared to the odds offered at sportsbooks. Roethlisberger is averaging 39 pass attempts per game and has a season completions percentage of 63.6%. The model gave this bet an 82% chance of winning when the line was set to 22.5, and it projects Roethlisberger to complete 25.52 passes tonight.

Alex Collins Yards Rushing: Over 55.5 (-110)

The player props tool projects Alex Collins for 69.5 yards rushing. Pittsburgh has the No. 9 rushing defense in the NFL, allowing 100.4 rushing yards per game. If one were to assume Pittsburgh allows 100 yards rushing tonight, it seems reasonable to expect Collins to account for 56% of the rushing.  This bet had a 74% chance of winning when the line was set at 54.5.

Najee Harris Receptions Made: Over 4.5 (-115)

The player props tool projects Najee Harris for 5.41 receptions and gives a 69% chance of winning the bet. Harris is averaging 6.5 targets per game. He has a high of 19 targets and a low of three in Week 1. He has caught 71.7% of his targets. If he gets targeted six times tonight, he would have four catches at that rate. If he gets targeted seven or more times, he wins the bet. The model gives this bet an expected ROI of 39%

Gerald Everett Receiving Yards: Over 19.5 (-110)

Gerald Everett is projected in our model to have 29.13 receiving yards. When the prop was set at 16.5, the expected win amount according to our prop tool was 70% with a 34% expected ROI. Everett had been out due to COVID and now Geno Smith is starting for Seattle. What I like about this bet is it can win off of one or two catches. The downside is it’s a player returning from COVID after being out for two weeks and there is a new starting quarterback. It does project well in the model, it’s a wildcard bet.

One-Game Parlay (+280)

The best one-game parlay at BetMGM is Smith over 219.5 passing yards (238.89 projected), Roethlisberger over 249.5 yards receiving (272.92 projected), and Diontae Johnson over 59.5 yards receiving yards (64.50 projected). If all three legs of this parlay hit, the payout is 2.8x.

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