Tonight, Russell Wilson and the Seattle Seahawks will host Matthew Stafford and the Los Angeles Rams. There are various places to go for both game and NFL prop bets, and BetMGM Sportsbook is a great place to look for this Week 5 Thursday Night Football game. Here are some of the best NFL bets and picks to make tonight.
BetMGM Week 5 NFL Best Bets: Thursday Night Football
Point Total: Under 54.5 (-110)
Awesemo’s Sports Betting Model compares the current point spread the sportsbook provides compared to what the expected point total should be, and the same for point spreads and moneylines. The model shows an expected point total of 54.3, and BetMGM has a point spread of 54.5. According to the model, this is the best traditional bet to make of the night, with an expected ROI of -2.7% compared to -8.3% on the point spread and -5.4% on the moneyline. If the idea of placing a bet with an expected negative ROI is something to avoid, BetMGM also has many other bets such as props and one-game parlays.
Darrell Henderson Yards Rushing: Under 64.5 (-115)
When looking for player props, Awesemo’s Player Props Tool is the place to see what players are projected to do compared to the odds offered at sportsbooks. Darrell Henderson rushing for fewer than 64.5 yards is one of the best prop bets of the night, as the model gives a projection of 58.18 yards, a 65% expected win rate and an expected ROI of 22%.
Matthew Stafford Passing Yards: Over 297.5 (-115)
The player props tool projects Stafford for 323.35 yards passing on the night, and the bet has a 62% chance to win. Stafford has gone over 297.5 yards passing twice in four games this season. Seattle is No. 28, allowing 292.5 yards passing per game. In a high-total road game, it is possible that the Rams will need to have over 300 yards passing to be in this game.
Tyler Lockett Receptions Made: Over 5.5 (+100)
The player props tool projects Tyler Lockett to catch 5.94 passes, with a 57% chance to win the bet and a 21% expected ROI. With Chris Carson’s neck injury and his rushing prop continuing to fall, there is a chance that Seattle will have to pass the ball more frequently than they have in the past. Lockett is averaging five targets per game and has 24.5% of the team targets on the season. Wilson is averaging 27.25 pass attempts per game. If that number goes up due to being behind in the game or potential ineffectiveness of the run game, there is a chance there will be a boost to targets and receptions to Seattle’s wide receivers. At +100, this is a solid, as Lockett has caught six passes or more in many games in the past.
One-Game Parlay (+450)
The best one-game parlay at BetMGM is Wilson over 254.5 yards passing (282.04 projected), Van Jefferson over 39.5 yards receiving (52.99 projected), Tyler Higbee over 40 yards receiving (47.34 projected) and Wilson two or more passing touchdowns (2.02 projected). If all four legs of this parlay hit, the payout is 4.5x.
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