After an exciting, upset-filled first three rounds of the NCAA Tournament, the Elite 8 begins with a two game slate. Let’s break down the top college basketball picks and NCAAB picks for Saturday, March 26.
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College Basketball Betting Picks & Predictions
Best NCAAB Picks: Houston -2
Now knocking off three legitimate opponents in UAB, Illinois, and No. 1-seeded Arizona, Houston draws the No. 2 seed in the region in Villanova. Interestingly, Houston opened as a 1.5-point favorite and has quickly moved to two. Even at this number, Houston continues to provide value in the betting markets. Houston ranks ninth in offensive efficiency and third in defensive efficiency. Meanwhile, Villanova ranks 14th and 73rd in the same categories. For the first time in multiple games, Houston also possesses a size advantage. The Cougars rank 95th in effective height and 18th in rebounding. Conversely, Villanova ranks 265th in effective height and 175th in rebounding. This is particularly troublesome when Houston possesses the ball. The Cougars rank seventh in offensive rebounds, creating valuable second-chance opportunities against a slow-paced Villanova team. With all that said, Villanova wants to play through their elite guard play. As a group, they rank 34th in 3-point attempts and 51st in 3-point percentage. However, Houston plays an aggressive style of defense that has given Villanova problems in the past. Even as recently as the Big East Tournament, Villanova almost lost a St. John’s team, who relentlessly pressured the primary ball-handler up the court. Lastly, Houston also showed the ability to play more than five players in their most recent game with Taze Moore battling foul trouble and Fabian White still playing limited minutes with a bad back. Overall, Houston is a stylistic nightmare for Villanova and two points isn’t giving them enough credit.
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Best NCAAB Picks: Arkansas vs. Duke – Over 146.5
A slightly more fragile bet on this slate, Arkansas vs. Duke has multiple avenues to eclipsing the 146.5-point total. First, there are two major concerns with Duke’s pace and Arkansas’ approach to fouls. Duke averages 69.9 possessions per game on the season, which ranks slightly below average. However, they haven’t played a game with a pace above 70 since facing Syracuse in the ACC Tournament. Some of this has to do with slow opponents, but some is also the Blue Devils slowing down. Fortunately, Arkansas averages 74 possessions per game and forces teams to play to their tempo. Secondly, Arkansas auto-benches anyone accumulating two fouls in the first half. If any of their studs leave early in the first half with two fouls, Arkansas’ efficiency could tank. Fortunately, Duke is bottom-100 in the country in drawing fouls. Aside from the tempo and fouls, the strengths of each team line up against the other well. Duke ranks fifth in offensive efficiency with top-50 shot percentages in the paint and from the perimeter. This will be importantly when attempting to exploit Arkansas’ 25th-ranked defense. Luckily, Duke exploited Texas Tech’s second-ranked defense just days ago in the Sweet 16. Similarly, Arkansas has struggled on offense at times, ranking 104th in offensive efficiency and 215th in overall field goal percentage. However, Duke’s 89th-ranked defense opens the door for increased efficiency here. With Arkansas likely to push the pace, over 146.5 looks like the top play in this contest.
More College Basketball Picks
For more action on today’s college basketball slate, take a look at the Awesemo CBB DFS page. All of Matt’s CBB picks for daily fantasy college basketball are there, as are CBB DFS Cheat Sheets for DraftKings and FanDuel.
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