Super Bowl LV Odds Boosts To Watch | Tom Brady + Patrick Mahomes

When it comes to the Super Bowl, the prop bet market is arguably more popular than the typical bets on the big game. And there is nowhere better to look at the prop bets than the odds boosts, those wagers where sportsbooks shift the NFL odds ever so slightly in your favor. Due to the betting limits, these aren’t going to be the huge moneymakers, but we still search the sportsbooks to find the best value for your dollar. We scoured the internet in search of the best NFL picks for you, and there was no shortage of odds boosts for Super Bowl LV between the Kansas City Chiefs and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. This post is going to focus on the two quarterbacks and the plethora of odds boosts around Tom Brady and Patrick Mahomes.

The storylines for this Super Bowl are indeed focused on Brady going for his seventh ring in his 10th Super Bowl appearance. The Buccaneers quarterback had led the franchise back to the final game for the first time since 2002 in his first year with the team, and it is proof that Brady can have success outside of New England. He’s facing Mahomes and the Chiefs as they try to become the first team since Brady’s Patriots to repeat as Super Bowl champions. Mahomes has outperformed Brady in these playoffs thus far, and the Chiefs have been a nearly unstoppable force this entire season.

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NFL Odds Boosts: Super Bowl LV Betting Picks

Tom Brady & Patrick Mahomes 650.5+ Yards Passing (+125 DraftKings)

When these two teams met in Week 12 of the regular season, the secondary seemed to be optional on both sides as the two quarterbacks combined for more than 800 passing yards. More than half of that came from Mahomes, who torched the Buccaneers defense for 462 yards and three touchdowns in the win. Tampa Bay’s defense has been very opportunistic during this postseason run, but that will be more difficult against this Kansas City offense that is very good at taking care of the ball. The Buccaneers have allowed 300 yards passing just twice since the first meeting with the Chiefs, but one of those games was in the NFC Championship Game to NFL MVP Aaron Rodgers. I could expect a similar performance from Mahomes.

The biggest question is whether or not we’ll see the Brady who led the Buccaneers into the postseason with an incredible run during the final four weeks of the season. The first three postseason games have not been kind to Brady as he is completing just 55 percent of his passes and threw three interceptions in the NFC title game. The Chiefs played some excellent coverage in the AFC Championship Game against Buffalo and they will challenge Tampa Bay’s receivers. Rob Gronkowski is going to be a difference-maker though after his seven catches for 106 yards in the regular-season meeting. Brady has found ways to accumulate yards even without the accuracy, so he should be able to do his part to help push the total in this game.

Patrick Mahomes Throws 3+ Touchdowns AND Chiefs Win (+130 DraftKings)

Mahomes only threw 3 or more touchdowns seven times during the season, but this Buccaneers defense provides the right opportunity for him to do it again. Tampa Bay was the best rushing defense in the NFL during the regular season and the Chiefs was in the middle of the pack in the league in rushing this season. Where the Chiefs excelled was throwing the ball, which is also where Tampa Bay struggled, ranking 21st. Mahomes has been excellent all year at being able to maximize his best players against defenses, and that won’t change in the Super Bowl. Clyde Edwards-Helaire has been an excellent addition to the Chiefs offense because not only does he add an explosive rushing capability, his receiving skills out of the backfield are tough for defenses to account for while scheming how to slow down the Kansas City offense.

The question is how will the Buccaneers deal with Tyreek Hill‘s speed after he torched them for 269 yards on 13 catches during the Week 12 meeting. If Tampa Bay can’t slow down Hill, Mahomes is going to use that matchup to push the ball down the field and create explosive scoring plays for the Chiefs offense. If the Buccaneers focus too much on Hill, it will open the door for Mecole Hardman or Sammy Watkins to make an impact in the passing game. In the red zone, Travis Kelce is a huge threat per usual because of how many different ways the Chiefs have found to use him. Whether it’s a standard route that takes advantage of his size or the quick shovel passes that catch defenses off guard, Mahomes finds ways to find his tight end for passing touchdowns.

FanDuel is offering a similar wager on Mahomes, but it replaces the requirement Kansas City wins with Mahomes throwing for at least 300 yards. Mahomes broke a three-game streak with less than 300 yards passing in the AFC Championship Game with 325 yards and looked to be back in the form of the quarterback who threw for 300 yards in six straight games in the middle of the season. As explored above, Kansas City’s best chance at success is going to be throwing the ball and challenging this Tampa Bay secondary, so Mahomes is going to have to exceed 300 yards likely if the Chiefs are going to win their second straight Super Bowl.

Tom Brady 0.5+ Yards Rushing (+200 PointsBet)

This is an interesting wager because Brady is obviously not known as a runner. In 19 games this year, Brady has only had positive rushing yards five times and been in the negative seven times, including two of the three playoff games. However, the odds on this bet are almost too good to pass up on the chance that he is sneaking for a first down or a touchdown during the game. Brady is crafty and if he can pick up a yard or two while escaping a sack, he’ll do it. It’s not a good chance this hits, but it’s an interesting odds boost, nonetheless.


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