With the World Series arriving, I wasn’t completely sure if or how I’d be betting it. But after going over everything, I do have a Game 1 play along with some leans on props I may fire on. Using the help of OddsShopper to locate the best plays and prices, let’s analyze some MLB picks.
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Game 1 World Series MLB Picks & Predictions | Top MLB Bets and Props
MLB Pick: Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: Los Angeles First Five -0.5 (-105)
“Playoff Kershaw stinks, blah blah blah.” The Rays also kind of stink at hitting for a team that made it to the World Series. They hit .194 in the ALCS and have struck out over 36% of the time when facing a lefty in the postseason. If there’s a get-right spot for Kershaw, this is it. These Tampa bats have 67 plate appearances against Kershaw and are hitting .076 with two extra-base hits.
Itt is tough to poke many holes in Tyler Glasnow, but his 4.66 ERA this postseason has been worse than Kershaw’s, and he has to face a far more daunting offense. The Dodgers’ lefty bats are scorching hot, and the Dodgers led MLB in first-five production away from home at 3.55 runs. There’s no home field in the series, but the Dodgers should be the more comfortable team, coming off playing the last seven game series in Arlington with fans in the building. They’ve been hitting here, and they’ve been pitching here, whereas Tampa has to come into a new environment. The Dodgers will come out a bit more comfortable. They’ve also all played on the World Series stage, which is new to the Rays.
While I’ve locked in the first-five play, these are just some leans where I see potential value in the player prop market. Any official plays will go up on Twitter before first pitch.
MLB Pick: Clayton Kershaw Strikeouts: Over 6.5 (-130)
As I mentioned, the Rays have been striking out an insane 36% of at-bats against lefties in the playoffs. Kershaw’s coming off a couple of tougher outings, but they were also both against top-five offenses in baseball. The Rays aren’t the same type of threat at the dish, getting here thanks to their pitching and some timely hitting. In those 67 plate appearances these Rays’ bats have against Kershaw, he’s punched out 18 — a 26.9% rate. OddsShopper is showing this number as high as -167, but prop value can be found if you’re willing to dig around for the best number.
MLB Pick: Tyler Glasnow Strikeouts: Under 6.5 (+125)
Our own Ben Rasa wrote this one up this morning, and I agree with his take. No need to be repetitive, just go read it here.
MLB Pick: Cody Bellinger Hits: Over 0.5 (-157)
Bellinger finished the NLCS on a high note and gets a nice matchup against a righty starter in Glasnow. He should get two or three at-bats here, and we’ve seen Glasnow have struggles with lefty bats in these playoffs. This is an extremely limited sample, but it doesn’t hurt that Bellinger has gone deep in two of his three at-bats against Glasnow and drew a walk in the other at-bat.
If you want to get crazy, OddsShopper is showing +310 across all the books to bet Bellinger to go deep in this game. I also like a small play at +1200 on Bellinger to win World Series MVP.
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Odds shopping is the best way to make sure you’re getting bang for your betting dollars. Please enjoy our new FREE website that shows you what each sports betting odds are in real time. You can sign up, track your bets, get notifications when a line moves and see how much money you’re making over time. Check it out right HERE.