The Corner Kick: EPL Game Week 9 Betting Picks | Aston Villa Home Lock?

The following are EPL betting picks where I agree with the results driven by my betting model, and I feel comfortable placing at least a unit. This week Aston Villa looks good.

[MAYFLOWER]

Favorite EPL Betting Picks | Nov. 21

Aston Villa vs. Brighton & Hove Albion: Aston Villa Money line (+110)

Aston Villa is sporting the sixth-best expected goals in the EPL and allowing an expected goals against of 9.7, which sits mid tier in the league. At home they are have an expected goals difference of +1. This is amplified by a 3-0 beatdown by Leeds United. Brighton is on the road with a below-average expected goals difference of -0.05. They hold one road clean sheet in the EPL this season, but recent form has seen them falter to Everton, Manchester Unit and Burnley.

The core of Aston Villa’s talent has seen rest, with only John McGinn really playing for country during the Nations League break. I do not see this game as a blowout, but Jack Grealish, Ross Barkley and Ollie Watkins are in exceptional form, and I expect Aston Villa to win this game at home 2-0. The line should not stay at plus money, so I will lay the unit early.


Find The Best Betting Odds All In One Place

Odds shopping is the best way to make sure you’re getting bang for your betting dollars. Please enjoy our new FREE website that shows you what each sports betting odds are in real time. You can sign up, track your bets, get notifications when a line moves and see how much money you’re making over time. Check it out right HERE.


Fulham vs. Everton: Everton Money line (-111)

The Craven Cottage has not been good to the home squad in their promotional campaign to the EPL. With Everton coming back and featuring a healthy Richarlison, this narrative should not change. Fulham has the third-worst expected goals differential at home in the EPL. They are managing just 3.5 expected goals at home and are welcoming an Everton squad that has five expected goals on the road.

Everton is not as strong on the road, with an expected goals difference of +0.04 compared to their home one of +1.7. The games without Richarlison and James Rodriguez were contributing factors. They look to see both back for this match, and if confirmed in the lineup, I expect the line to drop. With capable scorers for Fulham like Aleksandar Mitrovic, Fulham can find the back of the net, but the lack of defensive interest they show should see Everton rout them 3-1.


Follow us on all of our social channels! Check out our Twitter, Facebook, Instagram and YouTube for more great Awesemo content.

Check out the AwesemoOdds home page for more sports betting content, including more EPL betting picks and predictions.

Author
Jovanni Vidal is accountant and finance analyst, with lifetime passion for fantasy sports. He has provided content and player analysis for season-long fantasy sites. He joined Stokastic to help new and current DFS soccer players learn new approaches to the game and how to succeed, with an overall goal to grow the DFS soccer sport and various league content offerings. You can reach him on Twitter @fluff_marsh.

Stokastic +

Premium Data and Tools
PREMIUM TOOLS
Lineup Generator
Stokastic Sims MLB
PREMIUM DATA
Projections
Top Stack %s
MLB Data Central
FREE DATA
SoRare MLB Rankings
DraftKings Night Owl
FANTASY CRUNCHER (ADD-ON)
MLB Lineup Study
COMMUNITY
MLB Discord Server
PREMIUM DATA
Projections
Ownership Projections
PREMIUM TOOLS
Fantasy Cruncher (ADD-ON)
NHL Lineup Study
COMMUNITY
NHL Discord Server
PREMIUM TOOLS
Lineup Generator
Stokastic Sims PGA
PREMIUM DATA
Ownership Projections
Top Golfers Tool
PGA Tournament Models
FANTASY CRUNCHER (ADD-ON)
PGA Lineup Study
COMMUNITY
PGA Discord Server
Ownership Projections
Top Drivers Tool
NASCAR Discord Server
NASCAR Fantasy Cruncher
USFL Projections
USFL Discord Server
Ownership Projections
Top Fighters Tool
MMA Discord Server
MMA Fantasy Cruncher
NFL Betting Tools
Stokastic Discord Server
Best Ball
Best Ball Rankings
Best Ball Stat Projections
Stokastic Discord Server
Season Long Fantasy (Coming Soon)

DFS Winners from the Stokastic Community

Subscribe to the Stokastic newsletter

DFS advice, exciting promos, and the best bets straight to your inbox

Stokastic.com - Daily Fantasy Sports and Sports Betting Data, Tools, & Analytics

Please play responsibly. Only customers 21 and over are permitted to play. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.