EPL Game Week 4 Picks | Everton + Manchester City | 10/1

Favorite plays will be EPL picks where I agree with the results driven by my betting model, and I feel comfortable placing at least a unit.

 

Favorite EPL Picks

Everton vs. Brighton & Hove Albion: Everton Moneyline (-134)

Leeds United vs. Manchester City: Over 3.5 goals (-112)

Everton’s offense is clicking early, trailing only Liverpool in the EPL with an expected goals of 6.7. They have also taken on two tough defensive teams in Tottenham and Crystal Palace. Brighton was able to take out Newcastle but lost to Manchester United and Chelsea. Though Brighton was able to find the back of the net in the two losses, I think those two defenses have a world of issues that cannot mask the star-studded offenses. Everton is a sharper defense, and their offense seems more coordinated. Neal Maupay can get Brighton on the board in this one, but the answers from Richarlison and Dominic Calvert-Lewin should help Everton remain unbeaten to the tune of a 2-1 victory.

Manchester City is capable of scoring four-plus goals on their own. Their offense sits mid tier in the EPL with only 2.9 expected goals, but that should change quickly. I expect them to return to the league leaders from a year ago, when they posted an expected goals of 93. Manchester City’s defense looks a bit concerning, though they did face two tough offenses, and Leeds United should find some chances to sneak a goal or two. Leeds’ offense managed just one goal in their last game, but they found a few goals against Liverpool. I won’t even count the beating on Fulham because that team has no defense. The concern with Leeds is the defense, which has been shelled with seven goals in three games and could have been worse if not for Sheffield’s inability to score. I see Manchester City bouncing back from the let down against Leicester City and take this game 4-2.


Related EPL Content


Leicester City vs. West Ham United: Leicester City Moneyline (-164)

Southampton vs. West Bromwich: Southampton Moneyline (-139)

Arsenal vs. Sheffield: Arsenal Moneyline (-174)

I like all three of these teams, but the ROI for straight bets is poor, with the exception of Southampton. A three-game parlay is asking a lot, with a draw destroying the whole play, but two of the three is more manageable.

West Bromwich is sporting the worst defense in the EPL with an expected goals against of 7.9. I like Southampton’s offense led by Danny Ings to seal the victory. Arsenal’s offense has a tough task against the defense-first Sheffield United club. I like Arsenal to continue their scoring run of seven consecutive games, which dates back to last season, and Sheffield’s zero goals on the young season do not scare me. West Ham had an impressive thrashing of Wolverhampton, but Leicester City has averaged four goals a game in the EPL. The season is still young, and Leicester might not continue their offensive streak, but in this match the Jamie Vardy-led offense will take it 3-1.

Bonus EPL Plays/Other Leagues

Serie A: Lazio vs. Inter: Inter Moneyline (+120)

La Liga: Real Sociedad vs. Getafe: Real Sociedad Moneyline (+130)


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Author
Jovanni Vidal is accountant and finance analyst, with lifetime passion for fantasy sports. He has provided content and player analysis for season-long fantasy sites. He joined Stokastic to help new and current DFS soccer players learn new approaches to the game and how to succeed, with an overall goal to grow the DFS soccer sport and various league content offerings. You can reach him on Twitter @fluff_marsh.

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