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FREE MLB Picks and Parlays Today 7/12

Tyler Schmidt

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There is a massive 14-game main MLB slate on the docket for another shot at the Parlay of the Day. For this piece, we will use the OddsShopper MLB Parlay Builder paired with the Stokastic MLB projections to make the best MLB picks and parlays today. After missing the Prop Party Parlay yesterday by ONE strikeout from Alex Cobb, we will switch gears a little bit with the 10x Parlay and call it 10x Tuesday. This parlay features the top ROI bets in the market based on simulations from Stokastic’s team of data scientists. These parlays are built so that bettors exceed at least 10 times the initial bet.


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Below are four picks that stood out in Stokastic’s 10x Parlay that include four strikeout props. Three of the four props have juice, which helps get this to a 10x value.

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MLB Picks and Parlays Today 7/12

Adrian Sampson Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-150)

The biggest favorite on this parlay is Adrian Sampson over 3.5 strikeouts in his matchup against the Baltimore Orioles. The Cubs have been struggling all season long, as they are tied for the fourth-worst record in the league. The Orioles, on the other hand, still bring up the rear in the AL East but have won eight straight. Sampson doesn’t have a decision in three starts but did get over this strikeout prop line in each start and has a respectable 22.4% strikeout rate this season. In back-to-back starts, he threw 98 and 103 pitches, so going deep into games isn’t an issue. Despite winning eight straight, the Orioles still rank fourth in the league in strikeout percentage, making this a very strong spot for Sampson. The Cubs are also favored by -125 and Sampson is projected to total 5.1 strikeouts in this matchup.


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Glenn Otto Under 4.5 Strikeouts (+105)

Glenn Otto has lost three straight starts, and he will take the bump for the Rangers tonight. In that three-game stretch, Otto has allowed 11 earned runs and has only seven strikeouts. It is rare to find a pitcher who has nearly a higher walk rate than strikeout rate, but Otto comes very close. He has a 17.8% strikeout rate and a 14.2% walk rate. The matchup against the Athletics is the most concerning part about taking this under. They are the only team in the league that has yet to reach the 30-win mark. A top-10 strikeout rate while scoring the second-fewest runs does not put a lot of fear into opposing pitchers. Regardless of the matchup, Otto has only recorded five or more strikeouts in two of his last nine starts. Stokastic’s MLB model has Otto projected for 3.9 strikeouts, which seems quite low for this matchup.

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Josiah Gray Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+125)

Josiah Gray will take the mound for the Nationals, who have lost 10 of their last 11 games. Gray has the lone win in that 11-game stretch, where he had 11 strikeouts against the Phillies. Strikeouts are what the young right-hander prides himself in, as he has a very impressive 26.8% strikeout rate. He leads the Nationals in both strikeouts and wins this season, as he is the only pitcher on the staff who has a winning record. The downfall for Gray is, when he gets hit, he gets hit hard. A 36.7% hard-hit rate and a 1.86 HR/9 are not great numbers. Gray has allowed at least one home run in 12 of his 16 starts. The Mariners rank in the middle of the road for team ISO and home runs but rank 23rd in total runs this season. Six or more strikeouts may seem like a lot to get, but Gray has recorded at least six in five of his last six starts.


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Josh Winder Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+110)

This Josh Winder strikeout prop is the closest of this parlay, as he is projected for 3.4 strikeouts in Stokastic’s MLB Betting Model. Winder will make his sixth start in his rookie season for the Twins in this home matchup against the Brewers. He has a 4-2 record and has been awesome this season with a 0.89 HR/9 and a 3.12 ERA. Where Winder struggles the most, however, is getting strikeouts, as he has a 16.1% strikeout rate. He pitches to soft contact and has allowed just a 6.3% barrel percentage. Overall, this is a very solid matchup for strikeouts, as the Brewers rank eighth in strikeout rate in the league. However, this isn’t Winder’s bread and butter. He has only recorded four or more strikeouts in two of his five starts, and those starts were in the beginning of May.

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