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Best MLB Bets Today (8/6): Baseball Prop Betting Picks

Mark Kieffer



Is is Saturday, August 6th and like most Saturdays, they are action-packed with MLB action all day. There are some great pitchers going today such as Carlos Rodon, Shane McClanahan, Max Fried, and Max Scherzer. Marlins-Cubs, Braves-Mets Game 2, Blue Jays-Twins, Astros-Guardians, Yankees-Cardinals, and Padres-Dodgers are all ones that should be competitive and fun to watch today. If looking to get in on some MLB action today, BetMGM is offering a RISK-FREE BET up to $1,000.

This article will have the best picks according to Stokastic models to give you the best chance to win. With so many games going on, OddsShopper can help find all of the best MLB betting picks, giving helpful tips for making MLB bets today. Below are five strikeout props and one home run prop — the best ROI MLB prop bets tonight.

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Best MLB Prop Bets Today: Free MLB Picks & Predictions

Austin Voth O/U 4.5 Strikeouts | BetMGM RISK FREE BET

Austin Voth is going against the Pittsburgh Pirates at home tonight. Voth has a 21.5% strikeout rate and averages 0.97 strikeouts per inning this season. He has a 5.54 ERA but a 3.83 xFIP, but regardless is a risk of getting pulled early. He has gone over this total in two of seven starts this year. Those two starts are the only ones he made it five innings in as well. The Stokastic MLB Model gives him a 72% chance of going under this total and a 30% expected ROI — the best prop bet of the day.

Best MLB Pick Today: Austin Voth UNDER 4.5 Strikeouts (-124)

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Nick Lodolo O/U 6.5 Strikeouts | BetMGM RISK FREE BET

Nick Lodolo faces the Milwaukee Brewers tonight. Lodolo has a 30.3% strikeout rate and is averaging 1.41 strikeouts per inning. To reach seven strikeouts, it would take five innings pitched on average. Milwaukee has the fifth-highest strikeout rate to LHP at 24.3%. Lodolo has gone over this total in five of his eight starts this year.

Best MLB Pick Today: Nick Lodolo OVER 6.5 Strikeouts (-122)

Carlos Rodon O/U 8.5 Strikeouts | BetMGM RISK FREE BET up to $1000 FREE

Carlos Rodon has a 31.9% strikeout rate and faces the Oakland A’s tonight, who have the 15th-highest strikeout rate against LHP at 22.3%. To reach nine strikeouts, on average it would take seven innings pitched. He has gone seven innings or more in just five of his 21 starts this season. While he definitely has the upside to go over this total, he has exactly 10 strikeouts in each of his last two starts, he is more likely to stay under. OddsShopper gives Rodon a 70% chance of going under the total for a 25% expected ROI.

Best MLB Pick Today: Carlos Rodon UNDER 8.5 Strikeouts (-130)

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Drew Smyly O/U 5.5 Strikeouts | BetMGM RISK FREE BET up to $1000 FREE

Drew Smyly will pitch to a Miami team that has the highest strikeout rate to left-handed pitchers at 28.2%. Smyly was once known for being a strikeout guy, but he now has the lowest strikeout rate of his career, averaging 0.81 strikeouts per inning. On average, it would take 7.1 innings pitched to go over this total. He has not reached six strikeouts or more at all this season in 13 starts. The Stokastic MLB model gives the under a 71% chance of winning for a 22% expected ROI.

Best MLB Pick Today: Drew Smyly UNDER 5.5 Strikeouts (-140)

Luis Garcia O/U 0.5 Home Runs | BetMGM RISK FREE BET up to $1000 FREE

Luis Garcia of the Washington Nationals is not much of a home run hitter. He has just four home runs on the season and a .137 ISO.  The Stokastic MLB Model gives Garcia just an 11% chance of hitting a home run but because the odds are set at +1000, this bet has an expected ROI of 25%.

Best MLB Pick Today: Luis Garcia OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+1000)

Antonio Senzatela O/U 3.5 Strikeouts | BetMGM RISK FREE BET up to $1000 FREE

Antonio Senzatela will be up against the Arizona Diamondbacks lineup tonight. Senzatela is not much of a strikeout pitcher with a strikeout rate of just 13.7%. He averages 0.62 strikeouts per inning. On average, it would take 6.2 innings pitched to reach four strikeouts for Senzatela. He has gone over this total in six of 16 starts this season. The Stokastic MLB Model gives Senzatela a 56% chance of staying under 3.5 strikeouts for an expected ROI of 20%.

Best MLB Pick Today: Antonio Senzatela UNDER 3.5 Strikeouts (+115)

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