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Best MLB Bets Today (7/23): Baseball Prop Betting Picks + FREE $200 at BetMGM

Mark Kieffer

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It is Saturday, July 23rd and we have a 16-game MLB slate with every team in action tonight and a doubleheader between the Cleveland Guardians and the Chicago White Sox. That first game of the doubleheader is at 1:10 pm Eastern, then there are two games at 4:05 pm Eastern. After that, from 6:00 pm Eastern to 9:07 pm Eastern, there are MLB games starting. Justin Verlander and Logan Gilbert facing off in Seattle will be one to keep an eye on. Another one on many fans’ minds is “what happened in Boston last night?” with their attention to Fenway Park tonight. There are also many top pitchers on the mound tonight with Alek Manoah, Zack Wheeler, Gerrit Cole, Brandon Woodruff, Julio Urias, and Kyle Wright all in action tonight. With that many games happening, it can be difficult to prioritize the best MLB bets today.

OddsShopper can help you find all of the best MLB betting picks, giving helpful tips for making your MLB bet today. Below are four strikeout props and two home run props — our best ROI MLB prop bets tonight.


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Best MLB Prop Bets Today: Free MLB Picks & Predictions

Kutter Crawford O/U 4.5 Strikeouts | Claim $200 FREE

Kutter Crawford pitches to the Toronto Blue Jays, the night after an embarrassing outing for the Red Sox as a whole. Crawford has a 28.2% strikeout rate and averages 1.22 strikeouts per inning. It would take 4.1 innings pitched on average to reach five strikeouts. In his four starts this year, he has gone 4.0, 5.1, 5.0, and 6.0 innings pitched. He has a solid 3.83 xFIP, which is better than his 4.50 ERA. It is reasonable to expect him to go five innings or more, therefore going over this total. The OddsShopper MLB Model gives Crawford a 59% chance of going over the total.

The Pick: Kutter Crawford OVER 4.5 Strikeouts (+130)

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James Kaprielian O/U 4.5 Strikeouts | Claim YOUR $200 FREE

The Texas Rangers will see James Kaprielian on the mound today. Kaprielian has a 15.2% strikeout rate and averages 0.65 strikeouts per inning. He also has a 5.09 ERA, 5.37 xFIP, and is always a risk of getting pulled out of a game early. He would have to pitch eight innings on average to reach five strikeouts. He has reached five strikeouts or more in three of his 14 starts this season. He has pitched to Texas twice the season. The first time he went 4.1 innings and had two strikeouts. In the second start, he pitched five innings and had four strikeouts. OddsShopper gives the under a 69% chance of winning.

Best MLB Pick Today: James Kaprielian UNDER 4.5 Strikeouts (-108)


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Ryan Mountcastle O/U 0.5 Home Runs | Claim YOUR $200 FREE

The Orioles are facing Gerrit Cole tonight. According to OddsShopper, the sportsbooks are giving inflated odds of Orioles home runs, making the Orioles hitters in general positive expected ROI best to hit a home run. There are six Orioles that pop up in OddsShopper on the first page for positive ROI home run props. Ryan Mountcastle is the one with the highest expected ROI at 40%. The model gives him a 20% chance of hitting a home run tonight while the +600 odds imply a 14.3% chance of hitting a home run tonight. On the season, Mountcastle has a .201 ISO and 14 home runs. Cole is obviously an outstanding pitcher, but he does allow 1.35 HR/9 this season.

Best MLB Pick Today: Ryan Mountcastle OVER 0.5 Home Runs (+600)

Justin Verlander O/U 6.5 Strikeouts | Claim YOUR $200 FREE

Justin Verlander will pitch to the Seattle Mariners. Verlander has a 25.6% strikeout rate and averages 0.99 strikeouts per inning. The math here is pretty easy; he will reach seven strikeouts in seven innings pitched on average. He has faced Seattle four times this year already. The first time he went eight innings and struck out eight. In the second start against them, he went 6.2 innings and struck out three. In the third start against them, he went six innings and struck out six. Finally, in the fourth start, he went seven innings and struck out 12. In those 27.2 innings, he struck out 27 batters, for an average of…. 0.99 strikeouts per inning. Will he go seven innings tonight? The OddsShopper MLB Model gives him a 58% chance of staying under for an expected ROI of 28%.

The MLB Best Bet: Justin Verlander UNDER 6.5 Strikeouts (+120)

Ty France To Hit A Home Run | Claim YOUR $200 FREE

Ty France will be one of those Seattle Mariners hoping to avoid getting struck out by Justin Verlander tonight. Verlander has done a good job of limiting home runs against him, averaging just 0.91 HR/9, his lowest rate since 2015 in Detroit. France has 12 home runs on this season with a .169 ISO. OddsShopper gives France a 15% chance of hitting a home run tonight while his odds are at +750 (11.8% chance). This bet has an expected ROI of 26%.

The Betting Pick: Ty France To Hit A Home Run (+750)

Alek Manoah O/U 6.5 Strikeouts | Claim YOUR $200 FREE

Alek Manoah will pitch to the Red Sox in Fenway Park tonight. How will Boston respond after last night? Manoah has a 22.6% strikeout rate and averages 0.90 strikeouts per inning. On average he would have to pitch eight innings to reach seven strikeouts or more. Manoah has pitched eight innings just once in his 18 starts this year. He has gone over 6.5 strikeouts in six out of 18 starts this season. The Stokastic MLB Model gives him a 71% chance of staying under this total for an expected ROI of 21% on this bet.

Best MLB Betting Pick: Alek Manoah UNDER 6.5 Strikeouts (-140)


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