When it comes to the Super Bowl, you can find NFL betting predictions for literally anything. Sifting through all of the prop bets that numerous sports books are offering can be difficult, which is why we have created the simplest piece of betting advice you will need for Sunday. Awesemo’s 2022 Super Bowl betting guide will give you the best prop bets for every key player. Check out all of the best Super Bowl 56 props below, with expert picks and predictions that have the highest expected win percentage and ROI, according to Awesemo’s data scientists.
Super Bowl Betting Guide: Best Prop Bets for Every Player
QB Matthew Stafford – Over 280.5 Yards Passing (-112)
The quarterback prop market is a little stale, but both appear to provide a slight edge on the over side of their passing props. Matthew Stafford projects for 291.8 yards passing after notching 366 and 337 against the Buccaneers and 49ers in his last two games.
Win Percentage – 61%
ROI – 12%
QB Joe Burrow – Over 275.5 Yards Passing (-111)
Like Stafford, Joe Burrow has also closed the year strong with over 345 yards passing in three of his last five games. The Rams has a formidable pass rush, but they allowed the second-most 20-plus-yard receptions in football. With Awesemo’s projections slotting Burrow at 294.5 yards, the over looks like a sharp bet.
Win Percentage – 58%
ROI – 11%
RB Joe Mixon – Under 4.5 Receptions (-170)
While this bet is juiced heavily towards the under, Awesemo’s tools still find some potential value. Joe Mixon projects for 3.4 receptions after taking on an elevated role in the pass game down the stretch. Mixon had at least five targets in four of his last five games, eclipsing his listed reception prop in three. However, Cincinnati largely played with a lead in those games. After Cincinnati got down in a first half deficit last week, Mixon ceded some four targets and three receptions to Samaje Perine. Even with the heavy juice, this prop is a worthwhile bet.
Win Percentage – 77%
ROI – 23%
RB Samaje Perine – Under 5.5 Yards Rushing (-130)
Perine made his presence felt against Kansas City in the AFC Championship with three catches for 43 yards and a touchdown on four targets. However, Perine has settled into a pass-catching role, with only one carry during the playoffs. Mixon has out-carried Perine 52-1 during the playoffs. Projecting for only 4.4. yards rushing, Perine is a solid bet to fall below his 5.5 prop.
Win Percentage – 70%
ROI – 35%
RB Cam Akers – Under 65.5 Yards Rushing (-110)
Cam Akers sits at 65.5 yards rushing without egregious juice across various books. Awesemo projects Akers for 63.3 yards rushing, but there are multiple outs. First of all, Akers left the Conference Championship with an injury. While expected to play, he may not see his full role. Akers has also been pitiful since his return, averaging under 4 yards per carry in every outing this season, on top of his two fumbles in the Divisional Round. Darrell Henderson could be activated for this game, further squeezing the backfield committee. While the projection is close, the odds are solid enough to target.
Win Percentage – 60%
ROI – 15%
RB Sony Michel – Under 20.5 Yards Rushing (-130)
This is the single most attractive bet based on OddsShopper‘s in-house tools. Sony Michel carried 10 times for 16 yards in the Conference Championship, but Akers also got banged up in that game. In the Divisional Round the Rams completely phased out Michel, giving him one carry. Meanwhile, Akers received 24 carries. OddsShopper projects a split closer to the Divisional Round, so Michel under 20.5 yards rushing is the premier bet of the weekend.
Win Percentage – 86%
ROI – 51%
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WR Cooper Kupp – Over 0.5 Yards Rushing (+250)
While Cooper Kupp only has five carries all season, four of those came in Los Angeles’ last seven games. Sean McVay has a history of feeding receivers carries. Robert Woods had eight carries this year before his injury and had 19, 17 and 24 carries in the three seasons prior. Awesemo’s projections slate Kupp for 2.9 yards rushing, making this one of the top props on the board
Win Percentage – 40%
ROI – 40%
WR Odell Beckham Jr. – Under 5.5 Receptions (-130)
After coming over via trade from the Browns, Odell Beckham Jr. has reinvigorated his career. He has a 24% target share in the playoffs alone, equating to 19 receptions, 236 yards and one touchdown. While this also equates to 6.3 receptions per game, this recent opportunity could be a small sample trap. Awesemo’s projections have Beckham slated for 4.7 receptions, making his under an attractive bet. While it only provides a 14% return on investment, Beckham’s under still makes sense for those betting a large spread of props.
Win Percentage – 64%
ROI – 14%
WR Van Jefferson – Over 2.5 Receptions (+140)
Taking over the Rams’ third receiver role this year, Van Jefferson finished the regular season with a 14.8% target share and 23.4% air yards share. This equated to 50 catches for 802 yards during the regular season. After seeing just one target against Arizona in the Wild Card Round, Jefferson has eight combined targets over the last two games. Tyler Higbee may miss this game, and Awesemo’s projections give Jefferson 2.9 receptions.
Win Percentage – 57%
ROI – 38%
WR Ja’Marr Chase – Over 78.5 Yards Receiving
Ja’Marr Chase enters this game with a lofty 78.5-yards receiving prop. However, with the Bengals passing attack projecting so well, Chase projects for 88.4 yards. Chase now has 116, 109 and 54 yards receiving in the Bengals’ three playoff games, but the Rams set up as a particularly advantageous matchup for Chase. The Rams allowed the second-most 20-yard passing plays this season, teeing up Chase’s big-play ability.
Win Percentage – 55%
ROI – 5%
WR Tee Higgins – Most Yards Receiving (+650)
Tee Higgins does not have any individual player props that project as strong values, according to OddsShopper. However, Higgins projects for 75.8 yards receiving, which ranks narrowly behind Chase and Kupp. Instead of taking a stale line in the yards receiving or receptions category, taking a longer shot on Higgins to finish with the most yards receiving makes sense.
WR Tyler Boyd – Over 39.5 Yards Receiving (-109)
While Chase and Higgins are more efficiently priced in the prop markets, Tyler Boyd provides a decent edge. Awesemo projects Boyd for 51 yards, and this prop sits at 39.5. Boyd averaged 51.8 yards receiving per game in the regular season, making this prop even more curious. With the Bengals expected to throw frequently — since their best path to victory is through the air — Boyd is a solid bet.
Win Percentage – 61%
ROI – 16%
First Play – Pass (+115)
Both the Bengals and the Rams have a 59% pass rate. The Rams are at 49% on first down, compared to a 47% rate on first down for the Bengals. Los Angeles has a 54% rate on first downs in the first quarter, while Cincinnati checks in at 48%. That is enough wiggle room to take advantage of this prop at +115 odds.
Ja’Marr Chase Longest Reception – Over 26.5 Yards (-120)
On top of leading the Bengals in target share and air yards share, Chase also has a team-leading 12.6-yard average depth of target. The Rams gave up the second-most completions of 20-plus yards this season.
First Player to Record Sack – Leonard Floyd (+600)
The Rams’ strong defensive matches up directly against a deficient Bengals offensive line. Aaron Donald is the favorite to get the first sack after recording 12.5 sacks this year. However, Leonard Floyd is an interesting bet given he recorded 9.5 sacks himself. Von Miller had 9.5, but only five came with the Rams. Miller is +400 for the first sack, while Donald is +350. On top of Floyd recording similar number to the other elite defensive linemen, he has more pass rush opportunities than Miller in recent weeks. In each playoff game this year, Floyd has more raw pass rush attempts than Miller. While Miller is the superior talent, Floyd’s combination of similar production and more opportunities makes him a solid bet at plus money.
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