It is no secret you can bet on just about ANYTHING when it comes to the 2022 Super Bowl. With seemingly endless amount of betting options on the board for the Bengals vs. Rams, Awesemo has you covered with a comprehensive guide on how to bet on the Super Bowl. Throughout the week, you will find betting picks from our team of NFL experts on every type of bet you can imagine. This article will focus on the best Super Bowl 56 prop bets involving the first touchdown scorer and anytime touchdown scorers. Check out the best NFL prop bets odds over at OddsShopper, where we provide free expected win rate projections, and you will find the bets you love most in 30 seconds or less.
Best Super Bowl Bets 2022: First & Anytime Touchdown
Best First Touchdown Prop: Odell Beckham Jr. (+900)
Throughout the season, both the Rams and Bengals have deferred every time they have won the opening coin toss. That means there is no edge on which team is likelier to receive the opening kickoff. Taking it a step further, though, the Rams have scored on half of their opening drives this season. Cincinnati has scored on only a quarter of them. That means the Rams are the target when looking for first touchdown scorers.
Additionally, it is likely the first score will come via the pass. Los Angeles has scored over 80% of their touchdowns through the air this season. That skews even further early in games — 55% of Matthew Stafford‘s pass attempts on the year have come in the first half. Furthermore, Cincinnati is far more vulnerable defensively against the pass. They rank 24th in DVOA against the pass but 13th against the run.
Since Week 10, when Odell Beckham Jr. joined the team, Stafford has thrown 24 touchdowns. Cooper Kupp has accounted for 10 of them, while Beckham has scored six. That would suggest Kupp is roughly 1.7 times as likely as Beckham to score a given touchdown. However, the relative odds suggest otherwise. Kupp is currently +490 at FanDuel, while Beckham is +900. That makes the ratio just over 1.8 according to betting markets, leading to value on Beckham.
This assumes the probability of scoring the first touchdown is the same as any other, but that is a reasonable assumption. One could argue that it favors Beckham — Stafford tends to lock in on Kupp down the stretch in key moments. Kupp has a 30% first half target share, and in the second half it jumps to 34%. Kupp is obviously the most likely Ram to score first, but the better value is on Beckham.
Best Anytime Touchdown Prop: Sony Michel (+240), Bengals D/ST (+700)
Cam Akers has taken over as the lead back in the Rams offense throughout the playoffs. However, Sony Michel has encouraging red-zone work. Last week against the 49ers, Michel handled eight rushing attempts and a target in the red zone. Akers has only three attempts and a target. Given the Bengals’ defensive strength, it is likely that any touchdown rushing from the Rams will come at close range. With Michel seeing more than double Akers’ work inside the 20, he has the better shot.
Stafford led the NFL this season in pick-sixes thrown with four in 17 regular-season games. While that stat in and of itself could be due to noise, it is part of a clear trend. Stafford led the league in the 2020 season as well and ranks fourth all time with 27. He has led the league in four of his 13 seasons played. Based on his career numbers, he has roughly a 15% chance of throwing an interception that is returned for a touchdown in any given game. At +700 odds for the Bengals to score a defensive or special teams touchdowns, that is a roughly 5% edge.
That is before including fumbles and special teams scores as well. Neither of those are incredibly likely, but the Rams have lost half of a fumble per game this year. That is on the somewhat high side, ranking 13th in the league. That is worth a few extra percentage points, as is the slight possibility of a kick or punt return touchdown or a blocked kick or punt. The edge is not huge, but there is a clear value on this one.
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