The Power Rankings Tool is identifying value in a familiar spot. After it highlighted the Braves as the best MLB pick of last night, the model is back on Atlanta today. The Braves opened as underdogs yesterday but closed as favorites and ended up beating the Mets handily. That looks like another MLB betting spot to go back to the well with today.
MLB Expert Betting Picks & ROI Predictions | July 28
Atlanta Braves (+115) at New York Mets — 9.4% Expected ROI
As mentioned in the intro, the Braves once again make for one of the top MLB picks of the night. They are an underdog in a game that the Power Rankings Tool has them with plus odds in a game they are projected to win 51% of the time.
Tylor Megill has quickly turned into one of the Mets’ best starting pitchers, although there is reason for skepticism. He is having success at the big league level that he did not have in the minors. At Triple-A this season Megill posted a 3.77 ERA and a 4.07 FIP. While he figures to find success going forward, maintaining a 2.10 ERA in the major leagues likely isn’t sustainable.
Los Angeles Dodgers (-125) at San Francisco Giants — 6.6% Expected ROI
The Dodgers are one of the most underachieving teams in the league this season, and the Giants are the biggest overachiever. San Francisco leads Los Angeles in the standings by three games, but the Power Rankings Tool rates the Dodgers as the best team in baseball, while the Giants rate right in the middle of the pack at No. 15. Sportsbooks still favor the Dodgers to end up winning the division.
As for tonight, Walker Buehler is on the mound for the Dodgers. After a slow start, Buehler is having the best year of his career. He has a 2.31 ERA to go along with a 3.08 xERA. Buehler is also pitching extremely consistently. He has allowed three or fewer earned runs in 13 consecutive starts and has gone over a month without giving up a homer. When Buehler is on the mound the Dodgers should almost always get listed as a decently sized favorite.
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