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MUST-BET NBA Player Props Picks Tonight Mavericks vs Warriors Game 5

Henry John



After the Dallas Mavericks were staved off elimination on Tuesday night, the Golden State Warriors will make their second attempt at closing out the Western Conference Finals tonight. Game 5 of the series will take place on the Warriors’ home floor, a place where they have yet to lose in these playoffs. Will the first spot in the 2022 NBA Finals be clinched this evening? The NBA betting picks seem to think so, as Golden State is a hefty favorite. For those who may not wish to tangle with the large point spread, fear not! The NBA player props market offers plenty of worthwhile prop bets that can make for fine alternatives when it comes to having action on Game 5.

Bettors can easily enhance their NBA player props handicapping process further by including the redesigned OddsShopper as well as NBA betting tips today. Thanks to this tremendous tool, finding the best NBA player props bets today is as simple as three quick steps: Filter, sort, bet.

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Best NBA Player Prop Bets & Expert Betting Picks Today

Spencer Dinwiddie O/U 3.5 Assists

We are starting off our NBA prop bets today with a bang thanks to an adjustment in the total assists line for Spencer Dinwiddie. The Mavericks are at their best when multiple players are knocking down three-pointers. Dinwiddie may have scored 26 points in Game 3, but that was more because none of the Dallas three-and-D players could hit anything from outside. In Game 4, the Mavs’ lone win and best performance of this series to date, Dinwiddie only scored 10 points. He was able to take on a larger role as a distributor thanks to the fact that teammates were making shots and finished with eight assists.

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After his solid showing as a playmaker, the NBA player props market has moved Dinwiddie’s assist total up a notch from 2.5 to 3.5 ahead of tonight’s Game 5 matchup. The eight helpers he dished on Tuesday marked the second time in the Western Conference Finals that he exceeded this prop total. The other came in Game 2 when the Mavericks outplayed the Warriors for a half. Unless players like Dorian Finney-Smith, Reggie Bullock and Maxi Kleber suddenly go ice-cold shooting tonight, one has to like the outlook for Dinwiddie to distribute four assists or more once again.

From a pricing standpoint, OddsShopper shows that the NBA betting picks market is juiced fairly significantly to the under. This comes as no surprise given that Dinwiddie’s assist total has jumped up relative to the posted line for the first four games in this series. The resulting plus-money price on the over only aids the overall value of this prediction. Despite Awesemo’s exact projection of 3.88 assists only translating to a 54% win probability, optimal +130 odds enable this wager to carry a 24% expected ROI rating.

Best NBA Player Prop Today: Spencer Dinwiddie OVER 3.5 Assists | Get $200 FREE on BetMGM if Either Team Hits a Three

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Andrew Wiggins O/U 6.5 Rebounds 

It turns out that the NBA prop bets selection above isn’t the only plus-money option that Awesemo favors for Game 5 today. Another worthwhile bet can be found in the form of the rebounding total for Andrew Wiggins. After only averaging 4.5 boards per game over the course of the regular season, Wiggins has been a huge factor for the Warriors on the glass all throughout the playoffs. His prop totals have steadily been on the rise as a result. Although he ultimately failed to clear the current line of 6.5 total rebounds in Game 4 on Tuesday, he also played a series-low 31 minutes in the loss.

Up until Game 4, the Warriors have thoroughly dominated the Mavs on the boards in these Western Conference Finals. Dallas was able to flip the script and win the rebounding battle in Tuesday’s game, albeit by a slim three-board margin. Along with Kevon Looney and Draymond Green, Wiggins figures to be a key part of reinstituting the Warriors’ advantage in this area tonight. While the NBA player props line of 6.5 rebounds is a full two boards higher than Wiggins’ season-long average, it is one that he has regularly cleared in the playoffs. The fact that OddsShopper shows favorable plus-money odds on the over helps make this a more attractive wager.

In this series, he has finished with no less than five rebounds in any game. An 11-rebound effort in Game 3 on the road offers a pretty good indication of what the former No. 1 draft pick is capable of on the glass against the lackluster Dallas frontcourt. Awesemo’s exact projection of 7.02 rebounds gives Wiggins a 55% chance of going over the prop total tonight. When paired with the favorable +115 price, the expected ROI value comes in at 19%. Note too that OddsShopper indicates this +115 price point is 15 cents better than other listings in the market.

While the plus-money odds make this a very attractive NBA prop bet for Game 5, backing Wiggins to exceed 6.5 rebounds is priced as such for a reason. Clearly, there are several bettors in the market who view this rebounding total as being too high. If you find yourself in the camp of feeling like Wiggins will not grab seven boards or more tonight, perhaps a little FREE MONEY from BetMGM will be more to your liking! All you have to do is bet $10 to win $200 if either the Mavericks or Warriors hit just one 3-pointer tonight.

Best NBA Player Prop Today: Andrew Wiggins OVER 6.5 Rebounds

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Draymond Green O/U 8.5 Points

Prior to the Western Conference Finals, Draymond Green had virtually been a nonfactor for the Warriors offensively. However, he has quietly scored in double figures in four of the last five games. This stretch dates back to Golden State’s series-clinching win over Memphis last round when Green scored 14 points. In the ongoing conference finals against Dallas, Green has scored exactly 10 points in three of the four games. The uptick has correlated with a rise in field goal attempts as well as him knocking down no worse than 50% of his attempts in each game.

With Green seemingly snapping out of his offensive rut, the NBA player props market has adjusted his points total ahead of Game 5 tonight. The current line of 8.5 points sits one notch higher than any previous scoring prop we have seen for the 32-year-old in this series. It is also over one full point above the 7.3 that Green averaged on a per-game basis over the course of the full season. Despite this, OddsShopper is actually showing some slight juice in the prices towards the over at many sportsbooks in the NBA prop bets market.

While the defensive deficiencies of the Mavericks’ interior are well-documented, Green is hardly a player who is known for scoring in bunches. The fact that the adjusted NBA betting picks line affords bettors the chance to cash an under bet even if Green exceeds his points per game average cannot be overlooked. Keep in mind that prior to Game 6 against Memphis, he had scored six points or less in seven of the previous nine playoff games.

Awesemo officially projects Green for 7.74 points in Thursday’s Game 5 matchup. With OddsShopper indicating that optimal -105 odds are up to ten cents cheaper than alternative prices in the market, the expected ROI valuation for this prediction is listed at 9%.

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Best NBA Player Prop Today: Draymond Green UNDER 8.5 Points | Get $200 FREE on BetMGM if Either Team Hits a Three

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