The theme tonight is “short memory” and which team can forget their most recent drubbings. The Bulls have won three of five but come off a 26-point spanking by the Nets. The Warriors have dropped five of 10 and two straight, most recently a 19-point defeat by the Bucks. Chicago has the majority of its rotation intact, including the usual suspects at the top. DeMar DeRozan, Lonzo Ball and Zach LaVine make up one of the league’s most potent trios, with some help from Nikola Vucevic. Golden State is still dealing with some key absences in Draymond Green (calf) to Klay Thompson (rest). Stephen Curry is also not quite looking like himself from the field. Andrew Wiggins had a team-high 16 points in their last game, which sheds some light on how bad things have been for the Warriors.
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Best NBA Player Props & Betting Picks | Warriors vs. Bulls
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Best Warriors vs. Bulls NBA Bets Today & Odds Shopping
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Bulls -3.5 (-110, DraftKings)
This is a unanimous number across the board that was verified by OddsShopper and the NBA Betting Resource tool. It might speak to how little budge there is with this line, and how books are not interested in taking any less liability. The line is short because both teams were blown out of the building. Chicago looked as awful as Golden State last time. Chicago is healthy at the top, has enough scoring from LaVine and DeRozan and the ability to clamp down on Curry, granted Ball will need some help. But Curry himself is not shooting the Warriors back into games. Instead, it has helped prevent some runs. The Warriors need to get healthy and a consistent look with Thompson not on the floor. Not having him out there is going to only help one guy, Wiggins, and not the team itself. The Bulls would be wise to exploit the center matchup by stretching the court with some Vucevic 3’s, opening up some driving lanes in the process. Golden State will get back to their early-season form soon, just not tonight.
Stephen Curry Under 6.5 Assists (+116, FanDuel)
OddsShopper has the ability to sort by a couple of different options, including top expected ROI. That lands Curry’s assists prop, with a 24% expected ROI and a 57% chance of staying under 6.5. Bettors also get +116 back at FanDuel. There is a slight margin to work with, but the expected win rate over 50% makes it worth the risk. Awesemo has Curry projected for 6.2 assists, which still has a slightly higher chance of hitting six assists. This should be more of a +100 return at most. Curry has only gone over this number one time in his last four games, as he continued to struggle from the floor. There seems to be a slight correlation to the two; the worse he shoots the fewer opportunities he will pass as he is trying to shoot out of the slump.
Nikola Vucevic Under 16.5 Points (-115, BetMGM)
Vucevic should have his chances tonight without Green roaming around the paint, but how many chances is still in question. Awesemo has Vucevic projected for 14.9 points, so there is still some wiggle room between that and the book. The bet has an 60% chance of staying under and a 12% expected ROI. It is also a tighter window to work with, but consider that the Bulls are rolling out a healthy rotation. The Bulls should win this game by more than two possessions, taking away both volume of shots for Vucevic and possible minutes with a larger lead. He has gone over this number just three times in his last nine games, a larger factor than the 22 points he dropped against Brooklyn.
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Andrew Wiggins 20+ Points (+134, FanDuel)
This play comes down to two factors working together, one being the absence of Thompson and the other being the value at the book. It is clear that Wiggins could not immediately adjust to Thompson’s return, but tonight should offer a clearer path to the ball for Wiggins. There is little else to choose in other scoring options when Curry is struggling. Wiggins’ over/under of 17.5 points requires laying at least -110 on the over. Adding just one more basket to the equation gets it to 20 points at +134, with a guy who has volume built into the game plan.
Zach LaVine 5+ 3-Pointers (+310, FanDuel)
The Bulls will win, but not by a landslide. The Warriors can stay in this game, which puts even more emphasis on this being the Long Distance Launch. LaVine takes a lot of 3’s, but they come in closer games. The past two games were blowouts — a win and a loss — and his volume dipped a little bit. Normally LaVine takes at least six attempts, especially in closer games. LaVine should get a lot of looks against the Warriors, as Golden State does not have the bodies to cover everyone on Chicago at once. In the four games prior to the two blowouts, LaVine averaged 8.5 attempts. No blowout means lots of 3-point looks for LaVine.
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