Josh Allen and the Bills take their talents to Tennessee to battle Derrick Henry and the Titans on Monday Night Football. The Awesemo team has launched the NFL Player Props Tool, covering each of the major prop categories for each week throughout 2021. We will analyze all the odds at various sportsbooks to identify the best Week 6 NFL player props available based on the Tool’s projected values and odds of success. Below are three of the best NFL prop bets for tonight’s Bills vs. Titans Monday Night Football matchup.
Week 6 Monday Night Football NFL Player Prop Bets
Derrick Henry Over 97.5 Yards Rushing (-110, DraftKings)
Derrick Henry has been the Titans’ saving grace all season, and the NFL Player Props Tool projects that to continue. Henry is averaging 128 yards per game, and the props tool gives the over a 67% expected win rate. With Henry projected for 108.85 yards on Monday night, the props tool gives the over 28% return on investment.
Henry has been magnificent despite lackluster play from the Titans’ receiving game, averaging 4.5 yards per carry and seven touchdowns through five games. Tennessee has the 10th-ranked offensive run DVOA, and Buffalo has the No. 1 run defense. Buffalo’s defense is also surrendering just 49.8 yards per game to opposing running backs. Considering Henry accounts for 35.5% of the Titans yardage, take the over at minimal juice.
Stefon Diggs Under 7.5 Receptions (-149, Caesars)
Stefon Diggs has seen slight regression from last season, and the props tool suggests he will be coming up just short on Monday Night Football. Diggs is averaging 5.6 receptions per game, while the NFL Player Props Tool gives the under a 68% expected win rate. Diggs is projected for 6.26 catches against the Titans on Monday night, and the props tool gives under a suggested 14% return on investment.
Last season Diggs averaged 7.9 receptions per game, yet the emergence of Emmanuel Sanders has slightly reduced Diggs’ targets from 10.38 to 9.4 per game. On the flip side, the Titans have allowed the seventh-most receptions to wide receivers through five games. The Bills rank 14th in offensive pass DVOA, while Diggs is coming off a five-target game against the league’s worst pass defense in Kansas City. Despite the heightened juice, grab the under on an inflated prop line for Diggs.
A.J. Brown Under 5.5 Receptions (-164, PointsBet)
The Titans offense has suffered from injuries as of late, and the NFL Player Props Tool projects another difficult outing against Buffalo. A.J. Brown has averaged just 2.5 receptions per game this season, and the props tool gives a 74% expected win rate to the under. As Brown is projected for 4.32 receptions against the Bills, the under has a 20% return on investment. The Bills defense is allowing 12.6 receptions per game to opposing wide receivers through five games and ranks second overall in pass DVOA against WR1’s. Since Brown is questionable with an illness, lock in the under while the line is available in case he plays. Another intriguing angle lies with the plus-money at FanDuel on a 4.5-reception prop line.
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