The second leg of the Triple Crown is set to get underway, and we have plenty of storylines to get into. The first is always: can the Kentucky Derby winner take the next step in their quest to join the list of the elusive Triple Crown winners? However, the big story is the controversy surrounding Kentucky Derby winner Medina Spirit, who is still in the midst of a possible drug disqualification. Trainer Bob Baffert once again is at the center of a horse racing scandal, and it remains to be seen who will ultimately be declared the Derby winner. In terms of the Preakness Stakes betting picks, it looks like Medina Spirit is still set to run, and I don’t anticipate any major changes occurring.
2021 Preakness Stakes Expert Betting Picks at Pimlico
Unlike the massive Derby field, we have a more reasonable 10 horses who are looking to add their name to the Preakness stakes winner at Pimlico. Lets dive into the field and breakdown a few horses that I think should be on your betting card this Saturday.
Preakness Stakes: Saturday, May 15, 6:50 p.m. EST | NBC
The Field
- Ram 30-1
- Keepmeinmind 15-1
- Medina Spirit 9-5
- Crowded Trade 10-1
- Midnight Bourbon 5-1
- Rombauer 12-1
- France Go De Ina 20-1
- Unbridled Honor 15-1
- Risk Taking 15-1
- Concert Tour 5-2
As you can see, we have a 10-horse field with only a handful that were not in the Kentucky Derby. One that sticks out is Baffert’s other horse, Concert Tour, who is the second choice after choosing to skip the Derby. It’s no surprise to see Medina Spirit sitting as the 9-5 favorite, and it’s hard to imagine he won’t go off as the favorite come post time.
Need help making your Preakness Stakes betting picks? Horse racing betting expert Ben Rasa is joined by Josh Engleman in a ConTENders video to give you the ultimate Preakness betting guide with picks, predictions and best bets to make.
Contenders
Medina Spirit 9-5: This horse got out front at the Derby, and never looked back, resulting in an upset to most. The win was short-lived however, as the failed drug test threw the result into major controversy. Despite this, the takeaway from the Derby was Medina Spirit’s ability to get the lead down the stretch and hold it, which was the key to controlling that race. I have little to no interest backing him sub 2-1 in the betting market, despite him being the favorite. If you are playing exotic tickets, you always can look to the favorite, but I will be trying to beat him in this spot.
Concert Tour 5-2: This looks like the second choice in the betting markets with the 5-2 morning line. Mike Smith is aboard as the jockey and another Baffert horse will be under the microscope this week. The big question is, position-wise, where is Concert Tour after the break? He should be forwardly placed but will he take on Medina Spirit at the front, resulting in a speed duel of sorts? Pedigree-wise, Concert Tour measures up with three wins in four career starts, and has all the makings of a potential Preakness Stakes winner.
Crowded Trade 10-1: This is another horse who was not in the Kentucky Derby, but that can work in our favor, since it’s not a familiar name to the public. Chad Brown trains Crowded Trade with Javier Castellano aboard, so everything checks out with those connections. The horse has finished Top-3 in all three of his career races, so he is someone to consider in exotic tickets. Speed-figure-wise, he has shown the ability to put up a triple-digit figure, but can he sustain that here? That’s the question. Another positive is his potential to slide in right behind the pacesetters, creating an ideal position as they turn for home.
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Longshots to Watch
Risk Taking 15-1: With just 10 horses, this field doesn’t seem to have many live longshots. The back end of the field is full of horses who don’t seem to have the pedigree or talent to measure up against the best here. Risk Taking sits 15-1, which is somewhat appealing, as he has some positives heading into the race. First is Chad Brown also trains him, which is a boost considering I like Crowded Trade, and jockey Jose Ortiz is one of the best in the business. This horse was nowhere in the Wood Memorial prep race, but if you are willing to throw that one out he stacks up much better. Maybe he is worthy of being included in exacta and trifecta tickets, but it’s a tough sell to think this horse wins the race.
Preakness Stakes Winner: Crowded Trade (10-1)
I’m taking a shot here with a 10-1 horse in Crowded Trade, but I believe has a real shot to win this race. Medina Spirit and Concert Tour both want to do the same thing, and there could also be a few other horses vying for this lead. That could create a different environment than we saw at the Derby and could open it up for the horses stalking the pace. Crowded Trade has shown top-end speed at the Gotham Stakes earlier in his career, and should have at least a shot to take on Concert Tour or Medina Spirit as they turn for home. It’s a reasonable ask if he will have the right trip or enough talent to take down Baffert’s runners, but at 10-1 it’s worth paying to find out.
Preakness Stakes Betting Picks Exacta Box: Crowded Trade, Concert Tour, Midnight Bourbon  Â
If you want to bet some exotics, which means things like picking the first and second-place finishers (exacta), or first, second and third (trifecta), you will have opportunities for big-time payouts as these are much harder to hit, and thus, much longer odds. Obviously, I am going to recommend using Crowded Trade, as I think he wins the race, but who else should we include?
Depending on your risk tolerance and bankroll, you can add a number of horses, but the two priorities for me are Concert Tour and Midnight Bourbon. Throwing in the favorite is always an option, but I’m comfortable being aggressive on this ticket and hoping for a much better payout. Concert Tour, to me, is every bit as good as— and maybe better than — Medina Spirit, while Midnight Bourbon and Crowded Trade should be closing late. They are all reasonable options in a field like this, and if you can get two of three at the top of the board, you will be in for a quality payday.
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