The following are EPL betting picks where I agree with the results driven by my betting model, and I feel comfortable placing at least a unit. These are selected after careful review of the best available soccer wagers which can be found via OddsShopper.
Favorite EPL Betting Picks
Arsenal vs. Southampton: Southampton Moneyline (+225)
Arsenal has been a disaster in recent form. Their home expected goas differential is -0.5, middle of the pack. They have been beaten in three straight home matches in the EPL, with two clean sheets against them. Their captain, Pierre Emerick-Aubameyang, has struggled to get on the scoresheet, with one goal out of his two on the season coming by way of penalty kick.
Southampton’s road defense is one of the worst in the EPL, allowing 8.9 expected goals. They make their living off scoring, and I expect this game to be high scoring. Southampton has failed to score in just one EPL game this season and has posted two plus goals in nine out of 12 matches. With Dany Ings returning to the lineup and Arsenal’s offensive struggles, I expect Southampton to get the road victory here 3-2.
Another option is the Over 2.5 total goals at -130. The Southampton Win/Draw Double is steep at -148, but it offers safety in case of a tie.
[CARUSO]
Liverpool vs. Tottenham: Liverpool Moneyline (-133)
This matchup is a battle for the top seed in the EPL. Liverpool welcomes Tottenham to Anfield. Liverpool is sporting the best offense at home in the EPL, and their expected goal differential at home also tops the league table at +10. Tottenham’s road differential of +3.9 is the second best in the EPL, and their road offense is fourth.
Liverpool has been struggling on the road as of late. At home however, they have belted the likes of Leicester City and Wolverhampton by more than two goals a piece. The have three home clean sheets in their last four outings. Tottenham doesn’t project to be kept off the score sheet, but here Liverpool is getting to be too good a value in a setting where they have looked like reigning champions.
Bonus EPL Betting Picks/Soccer Wagers for Other Leagues
EPL: Leicester City vs. Everton: Leicester City Moneyline (+115)
EPL: Fulham vs. Brighton & Hove Albion: Fulham Moneyline (+187)
Bundesliga Parlay: RB Leipzig Moneyline (-167)/Bayer Leverkusen Moneyline (-155)
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Last weekend picks were horrible not because they were wrong but the god darn ties.