For the top seeds in each conference, things are totally different from what they were just four days ago when Phoenix and Miami hit the road for the first time in the second round. Prior to Friday night, the Suns and Heat each led their respective series 2-0. But now, as those two teams return home, each series is knotted at two games apiece. The 76ers and the Heat will be first up tonight with the tip set for 7:30 p.m. ET on TNT. Joel Embiid‘s return was a huge boost for the 76ers as they outscored the Heat by 28 points in Philadelphia. The bigger surprise is that the Mavericks were able to take both of their home games against the Suns as easily as they did. The Mavericks led Game 3 and Game 4 by double digits heading into the fourth quarter. Game 5 of this series is slated to tip at 10 p.m. ET. The following are the five best NBA bets today for Tuesday, May 10.
Best NBA Bets and Player Props Today
Heat vs. 76ers Moneyline
Homecourt advantage has been huge in this series and in Round 2 overall. The home team has won each of the first four games in this series by at least 8 points. The home teams are 13-3 in Round 2 and 37-22 throughout the playoffs. But this bet is contingent on the health of some key players for the Heat, as they have seven players listed on the injury report. Most of the Heat players on the report have been there since the beginning of the playoffs, so the majority of the team is expected to play. Kyle Lowry (hamstring) has been declared out for the game, and Dewayne Dedmon (illness) is now the most significant health concern for the Heat. Embiid (orbital/thumb) is listed as questionable for the 76ers.
The series dynamics have shifted with Embiid’s return. While Embiid has not been his usual dominant self, he has posted a double-double in each of the two games and the 76ers have outscored the Heat by a total of 13 points when he is on the court. His presence has really been felt on the defensive end, at the free-throw line and on the glass. The Sixers held the Heat to 40% shooting from the field and outrebounded the Heat by four a game in Philadelphia. They also averaged seven more free throws in Games 3 and 4 than in the first two contests of the series.
However, Miami is playing at FTX Arena, where they are 34-12 on the year, including 5-0 in playoffs with a +13.4 scoring margin. The Heat have shot the ball well at home during the postseason with a 55.4% effective field goal percentage. More importantly, they have been fantastic on the defensive end there, recording a playoff-best 102.2 defensive rating while holding their opponents to an effective field goal percentage of just 48.9%. Meanwhile, Philadelphia is just 2-3 away from home this postseason. OddsShopper gives the Heat a 60% chance of winning the game.
There are three keys for the Heat to come out victorious tonight, with two coming on the defensive end. First, Miami will have to make Philadelphia work on offense, which they have done a pretty good job of thus far. In the series, 55% of the 76ers shot attempts are coming with 12 or fewer seconds on the shot clock, including 26% of their shots coming with the shot clock at six or less. The Heat also did a fantastic job limiting Embiid’s touches in the post. Embiid has posted up just four times in the last two games, which explains why he is shooting 44% from the floor.
Offensively, Jimmy Butler needs to get into the paint, where he is shooting 72% (26-of-36) from the field. While those numbers may not be sustainable, particularly with Embiid manning the middle, he can draw fouls and create for others, as he is an exceptional passer. Butler scored 72 points in the two games in Philadelphia, with 20 of those coming from the charity stripe. The Heat also need Tyler Herro to break out of his mini shooting slump, as he connected on just 33% of his shots over the last two games, including 25% (3-of-12) from the 3-point line.
If you are concerned about Miami’s health and this moneyline play seems too risky, BetMGM is giving away FREE money! All you have to do is bet $10 to win $200 if either the 76ers or the Heat hit just one 3-pointer tonight.
Best NBA Bet Today: Heat Moneyline (-140) Over 76ers
Suns vs. Mavericks O/U 215 Points
This should be a fun and exciting game that could also finish as the closest game in the series, which is why the best bet is to go with the over, as both teams have been pretty good on the offensive end while only being average defensively during the playoffs. The teams have split the first four games of the series, with the home team winning by at least 7 points. OddsShopper projects 217 points, with the over getting a 54% chance of hitting. The expected ROI is 2%.
Everyone knows that Phoenix has a potent offense, and they are showing how efficient they can be this postseason. The Suns rank No. 1 in the playoffs with a 118 offensive rating, as they have recorded a playoff-best effective field goal percentage of 57.9%. They have been even better at home during the postseason, where they have an offensive rating of 123.1 and an effective field goal percentage of nearly 61%. The Suns will need to protect the ball better than in Games 3 and 4, where they averaged 17 turnovers a game.
Phoenix has not been great defensively during the postseason. While they have defended better at home, the 3-point defense has been an issue, as their opponents are shooting 38% from beyond the arc over the last 10 games. This is a problem against Dallas, who loves to launch 3’s. In the postseason, 50% of the Mavericks’ field goal attempts have come from long distance. The Mavericks lead the league in 3’s with 15.6 in the playoffs and are knocking them down at a 38% rate, though they have increased that to 40% against the Suns. Luka Doncic, Dorian Finney-Smith, Reggie Bullock and Maxi Kleber are making at least two 3-pointers a game. Dallas also does an excellent job of protecting the ball.
Moreover, the first two games of the series in Phoenix have produced at least 235 points. Devin Booker has hit the 30-point plateau twice in the series and three of his five playoff games this season. Meanwhile, Doncic tossed in 80 points in the first two games of the series and is averaging almost 32 points during the postseason.
Best NBA Bet Today: Suns vs. Mavericks Over 215 Points
Gabe Vincent O/U 8.5 Points
Vincent is dealing with a knee injury and has only seen 25 minutes of action over the last two games, though he is expected to start with Lowry being declared out. Vincent is a 3-point specialist, so he will need to knock down at least one from long distance, if not multiple 3’s. He has scored at least 9 points in four of the six playoff games in which he has seen 25 or more minutes. Vincent is projected for 9.24 points tonight. OddsShopper gives the over a 54% chance of hitting and an expected ROI of 4%.
Best NBA Bet Today: Gabe Vincent Over 8.5 Points
Other Top NBA Picks & Prop Bets Today
- Mavericks vs. Suns Over 55.5 First Quarter Points
- James Harden Under 20.5 Points
Thanks for reading to the end of this article! If you appreciate this free content and want to see more of it every day, you can help us out by sharing this article on social media!
Check out Stokastic's Best Bets home page for more sports betting picks and predictions.
