Unlike the Eastern Conference, whose finals teams are the top-seeded Heat and No. 2 Celtics, the Western Conference Finals are a bit of a surprise, with Golden State hosting Dallas for Game 1. There could be the case that the Warriors would have been the top seed in the conference had they not suffered so many injuries to key players. Still, Golden State finished tied with Miami for the third-best record in the league at 53-29. Meanwhile, the Mavericks finished with the second-best record since Jan. 1, only behind the Suns, to earn the conference’s fourth seed.
Golden State is in the Western Conference finals for the first time since 2019 though it is the fifth time in seven years under Steve Kerr. On the other hand, Dallas has not made it this far in the playoffs since claiming the NBA crown in 2011. The Mavericks won the season series over the Warriors 3-1.
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This should be an exciting series as both teams like to pull it from deep and they also can grind it out. In Game 1, like in the Eastern Conference opener, Miami earned a come-from-behind victory. Golden State is at home and the more rested team. OddsShopper also likes the Warriors, giving them a 65% chance of winning this one as well as a 51% chance of covering.
During the postseason, Dallas is 8-5, though it is just 3-4 on the road with a minus-2.1 scoring differential. The Mavericks are coming off a surprising seven-game series victory over the No. 1 Suns on Sunday, so they are a bit travel weary. This could prove detrimental for the Mavs, as it did for the Celtics in their Game 1 setback, where they were outscored 64-45 in the second half.
Dallas has been pretty efficient on the offensive end, thanks to some superb 3-point shooting. Amongst all playoff teams, the Mavericks rank fifth in offensive efficiency and sixth in defensive efficiency. The Mavs are averaging 106.2 points a game through the first two rounds while shooting 45.3% from the field and 38.5% from beyond the arc. They top the playoffs with 15.5 3-pointers a game as they are attempting over 40 3’s. Luka Doncic has been magnificent throughout the postseason and the continued emergence of Jalen Brunson gives Dallas one of the best backcourts for years to come. The Mavs have also gotten big performances from Spencer Dinwiddie, Dorian Finney-Smith, Reggie Bullock and Maxi Kleber over the last 13 contests.
Defensively, Dallas has been good, but it has been aided by its pace of play. The Mavericks allow 101.9 points a game on 46.1% shooting from the field. The Mavs have done a terrific job guarding the 3-point line as they have held their opponents to fewer than 10 3’s a game at a 33.9% clip. Rebounding, rim protection and fouling are issues for them.
Golden State is 8-3 during the playoffs thus far. After relatively coasting past the Nuggets, the Grizzlies gave the Warriors all they could handle in Round 2 despite being without Ja Morant for the final three games. The Warriors have been off since dispatching the Griz on Friday 110-96. All three of their losses have been on the road.
The Warriors have continued their dominance at home during the postseason, going 6-0 with a plus-14.5 scoring margin. The Dubs have been fantastic on the offensive end, with their guards leading the way. They own the sixth-best offensive and defensive ratings this postseason.
Golden State is averaging a playoff-best 114.2 points on 48.3% shooting from the field and making 14.3 3-pointers at a 37.6% rate. The Warriors move the ball exceptionally well, but turnovers and fouling are issues. Stephen Curry, Klay Thompson and Jordan Poole are all compiling 19 points while shooting at least 45% from the field and 35% from beyond the arc. Andrew Wiggins is also having a nice postseason run.
Defensively, Golden State is giving up to many easy baskets. The Warriors are permitting 110.1 points though they hold their opponents to 44.3% shooting from the field, which is the second-best in the playoffs. The Warriors are giving up 18.1 points off their turnovers and 13.8 points on the break. They also need to do a better job at protecting the paint as well as keeping the Mavericks off the offensive glass.
Best Bets: Warriors Spread (-5.0) Over Mavericks
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Dwight Powell Prop Bet | Claim $200 FREE at BetMGM
Powell has not been a huge factor this playoff series though he did compile 18 points over the last two games. Powell is very efficient around the basket and will score on putbacks. The big question is how many touches or opportunities he will get tonight. Powell only had five shot attempts and was four-for-six from the charity stripe in the past two contests. The Warriors have struggled to keep the ball out of the paint in the playoffs and have struggled against opposing centers this postseason.
Powell averaged five points in 19 minutes of action vs. the Warriors during the regular season. He is projected for 5.84 points tonight. OddsShopper gives the over a 61% chance of hitting with an expected ROI of 20%.
Powell’s rebound prop bet is very appealing as well. He is excellent on the offensive glass and the Warriors have done a poor job keeping opponents off the boards on that end of the floor. The Dubs are allowing nearly 12 offensive caroms a game to opponents during the postseason. Powell is projected for 3.84 rebounds. OddsShopper gives the over a 73% chance of hitting with an expected ROI of 30%.
Best NBA Bet Today: Powell Over 4.5 Points; Over 2.5 ReboundsÂ
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- Stephen Curry Under 5.5 Rebounds
- Dorian Finney-Smith Over 4.5 Rebounds
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