UFC 275 Picks Tonight: Teixeira vs. Prochazka UFC Predictions 6/11

The UFC will be heading to Singapore for UFC 275 headlined by two title fights. In the co-main event, Valentina Shevchenko will look to remain the flyweight queen as she takes on Talia Santos, and to no one’s surprise, Shevchenko is a massive -800 favorite. Newly minted light heavyweight champion Glover Teixeira will make his first defense against the violent Jiri Prochazka. With the card being in Singapore, the UFC is showcasing a lot of its Asian talent and the undercard is strong. Most of the fights on the undercard are close on the moneyline, which is a nice change of pace. However, with the massive favorites, the bettors will have to look for props to beat the books. This gives bettors multiple ways to bet when making their UFC 275 picks and predictions tonight.

Expert UFC 275 Picks, Predictions & Best Bets

Valentina Shevchenko vs. Talia Santos Prediction

Valentina Shevchenko has cleaned out the flyweight division and this will be her seventh defense of the belt. She will be taking on Talia Santos, who is on a four-fight winning streak in the UFC. However, this is a gigantic task, one she is probably not ready for. Vegas agrees, as Shevchenko sits as high as -800 in some spots on the moneyline, which is unbettable. Where bettors should look to take advantage of this fight is in the over/under. In four of Shevchenko’s six title defenses, she has beaten her opponent by TKO and the other two wins were dominating decision victories. Santos, on the other hand, has seen three of her four UFC wins go to decision, but she has never faced someone like Shevchenko.

Santos has a lot of power in her hands, with three knockdowns in her last two fights. It is possible she could crack Shevchenko and get a knockdown and possibly a finish, but it does not seem likely. Most of the finish equity in this fight is on the side of Shevchenko; she is better everywhere, and she will put a pace on Santos that she may not be able to handle. Santos does not have the best cardio as it is, and if she starts to tire, a mid- to late-round finish for Shevchenko is certainly possible. Normally in this situation, it would make sense to bet Shevchenko inside the distance, but that line is sitting at +110, so the bettor not only is getting a better line with the under 4.5. However, they also get the little bit of finish equity that Santos may have. If the lines are comparable, it’s better to take both fighters with the under and embrace the chaos.

Best UFC 275 Betting Pick: Shevchenko/Santos Under 4.5 Rounds +112 (FanDuel)

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Glover Teixeira vs. Jiri Prochazka Prediction

It is pretty incredible that, at 42 years young, Glover Teixeira finally captured UFC gold for the first time. He has faced all the names in the division over the years and had some amazing fights, but now he gets to defend the light heavyweight title against a very dangerous and unique challenger in Jiri Prochazka. Prochazka burst onto the UFC scene with a second-round knockout of Volkan Oezdemir, previously a fighter who had fought for the belt and had never been knocked out in the UFC. Then 10 months later he knocked out Dominick Reyes — another fighter who had fought for the belt — with an incredible spinning back elbow. The one thing Prochazka did well in both of those fights was put an absolutely insane pace on both fighters. In the Reyes fight it did look like he was starting to slow down in the second round, but that was a pretty highly paced, back-and-forth brawl, something Teixeira will look to avoid.

Teixeira will try to dodge the kitchen sinks that Prochazka throws his way and test him on the mat. That was one of the questions yet to be answered in the UFC: What happens if Prochazka gets taken down? Those questions should get answered this weekend. Teixeira is one of, if not the best submission grappler in the light heavyweight division, so his game plan is simple considering he does have some durability issues. The fight as a whole is -600 to end inside the distance, and if Teixeira wins, it will most certainly come on the mat. If Prochazka can defend takedowns, he will be extremely live to knock out Teixeira and capture gold. While under 1.5 rounds is at plus money in this fight, 10 full minutes of finishing opportunity at a good price of -138 is the better option.

Best UFC 275 Betting Pick: Teixeira/Prochazka Won’t Start Round 3 -138 (FanDuel)

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