UFC Betting Picks +Breakdown for UFC 252 Cormier vs Miocic | Best Odds Available

The highly anticipated trilogy fight between Stipe Miocic and Daniel Cormier occurs this weekend at the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas. Highlighted by a 25-foot cage, this fight will anoint an undisputed heavyweight champion and cement one of these fighters among the greatest all time. From a betting perspective, this fight card features a number of large favorites and a few prospects making their debut. Fortunately, this provides an opportunity to diversify our action ahead of this week’s pay-per-view card. Let’s get into some UFC betting picks & a breakdown for UFC 252 Cormier vs. Miocic.


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UFC Betting Picks + Breakdown: UFC 252 Cormier vs Miocic

Moneyline Winners

Note: All odds quoted are as of 9 a.m. EST, Aug. 13. Odds will change. To keep up to date for the latest prices, head over to OddShopper.

UFC Betting Pick No. 1: Daniel Cormier -112 (DraftKings)

After winning the first bout against Stipe Miocic via first-round knockout, Cormier found himself at the receiving end of a Miocic knockout himself in their most recent fight. Cormier’s knockout loss came in the fourth round after Cormier severely out-paced Miocic.

In that rematch fight, Cormier landed 181 significant strikes to Miocic’s 123. Both fighters mixed in a takedown, but the fight spent most of the time standing. Cormier routinely tagged Miocic, until Miocic switched his strategy in the fourth round. Miocic began attacking Cormier’s body and ultimately hurt him enough to earn a subsequent knockout.

Looking forward, Cormier won the striking battle in both previous matchups. Fighting in the smaller cage, Miocic could struggle to use his five-inch height and eight-inch reach advantage to keep distance. From a grappling perspective, this bout also favors Cormier. Cormier wrestled for the American Olympic team and already noted his wrestling game plan ahead of this bout. Miocic holds 73% takedown defense, but Cormier has landed five total takedowns in his last two fights. He even picked up, slammed and controlled Miocic on the mat for a bit in their second fight.

With paths to victory striking and grappling, Cormier remains a solid value at -112 in this bout. The best odds for this fight come from DraftKings sportsbook. You can find them HERE.

For those feeling a little risky, Cormier to win via submission sits at +1,000 at various sportsbooks. Miocic has never been submitted in his career, but Cormier’s theoretical grappling advantage could pay off in a big way in this spot.

UFC Betting Pick No. 2: Junior Dos Santos +128 (FanDuel

Now 36, Junior Dos Santos makes his 29th professional fight against up-and-comer Jairzinho Rozenstruik. Known exclusively as a kickboxer, Rozenstruik enters this bout fresh off a knockout loss at the hands of Francis Ngannou.

While the betting markets favor Rozenstruik, Dos Santos actually holds a number of advantages in this bout. Dos Santos typically tries to box with his opponents, but he actually holds a grappling advantage in this spot. Rozenstruik has never attempted a takedown at the UFC level, but he has shown vulnerability despite his 75% takedown defense.

In his second-most recent fight, Rozenstruik allowed a pair of takedowns to Alistair Overeem. Overeem controlled Rozenstruik for a majority of those rounds, and Rozenstruik failed to get back to his feet. Dos Santos only lands 0.33 takedowns on average, and he hasn’t landed a takedown since 2014. However, that takedown came against current champion Miocic, showing he at least has the ability. In fact, Dos Santos has only attempted one takedown since that 2014 fight.

On the feet, Rozenstruik remains a far more formidable opponent with his kickboxing background. Still, Rozenstruik only holds 34% striking defense. Four of five UFC level fights finished in the second round or earlier for Rozenstruik. While he likely holds the striking advantage here, the sample size is difficult to draw any actionable information from.

With a clear grappling advantage and comparable striking pedigrees, Dos Santos looks like the superior bet in this matchup. Currently, the best odds for Dos Santos can be found on FanDuel via Awesemo’s OddsShopper tool.

UFC Betting Pick No. 3: Merab Dvalishvili (-193) BETMGM

Entering this bout on a four-fight winning streak, Merab Dvalishvili takes on former flyweight title contender John Dodson. After opening as a -170 favorite, the line has shifted all the way to -240 in certain spots in favor of Dvalishvili. Looking at the Awesemo OddsShopper tool, Dvalishvili remains at -193 at BetMGM in this highly winnable matchup.

Dvalishvili fights with incredible pace, landing 8.67 takedowns on average in his six fights at the UFC level. In his two most recent fights, Dvalishlini landed 25 total takedowns. Dodson holds 80% takedown defense, but he enters this fight at age 35 with 11 professional losses under his belt.

Similarly, Dodson appears to have wavered in his takedown defense of late. He has allowed at least one takedown in four of his last five matches. Neither fighter has shown much finishing potential in their most recent fights, but Dvalishvili holds an output edge both on the feet and in the grappling realm.

Unless we see a vintage Dodson performance, Dvalishvili deserves to enter this fight as a heavy favorite. While this bet won’t break the bank, Dvalishvili remains a safe play at -193 this weekend. 


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Author
Matt Gajewski graduated from the University of Wisconsin with a degree in Economics. Matt has worked in the fantasy industry for the past four years, focusing on DFS and Sports Betting. Matt specializes in NFL, College Football, College Basketball, XFL, and MMA. With GPP victories across the major sports, Matt also qualified for the DraftKings 2020 Sports Betting Championship and won a seat to the College Basketball Tourney Mania final.

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