The U.S. Open leaderboard often has many of the same names at or near the top every year. The USGA setup means players with the ability to lift the ball out of the rough quickly and with good distance and accuracy off the tee have a massive advantage, and that allows bettors to cut down the player pool. This year’s event should be no different heading to The Country Club, a 7,254-yard, par-70 setup located in Brookline, Mass. With a small group of players to target this week, using OddsShopper golf betting tools to help identify the best values on the board (and best prices) will be a huge advantage when making 2022 U.S. Open predictions and golf betting picks this week.
We’ll still look at event history and recent form, as quite often those are some of the best indicators for success at this event. Each of the past five U.S. Open winners had played this event at least three times prior and were already in great form coming in. From an outright perspective, winners have come at no longer than 50-1 in the betting odds over the past five seasons, but there are always good placement odds and matchups to look for at smaller prices as well. Below we’ll use OddsShopper to help identify some of those potential values and get ready for the 122nd U.S. Open.
U.S. Open 2022 Predictions & Golf Betting Picks
Ben Rasa and Eytan Shander break down the best U.S. Open 2022 golf betting picks and predictions. See who they’re building their card around this week.
To Win Outright U.S. Open Bets
Sam Burns +3000
With Rory McIlroy and Justin Thomas having sliced their odds with their performances last week, it’s best to look down the board for some potential value in the next tier of players when compiling outright bets. One name that really stands out in that regard is Sam Burns. Among the +2000 to +3000 range on OddsShopper, Burns has the best combo of win rate and odds to win of the players in that grouping. He will be playing the U.S. Open for the fourth time, but he has only managed a 41st place (2018) as his best result. Burns has taken a massive upward trajectory in his performance this year, however, and it is still not being respected much yet by oddsmakers in the big events. An elite putter who has now gained over three strokes on the greens in six of his last seven starts, Burns’ iron play has also taken a step up of late, and he looks like a great way to begin cards at the +3000 currently on offer.
Daniel Berger Outright +5000 | Caesars
When using OddsShopper to look for the best prices this week, Daniel Berger certainly stands out as a player in the mid-tier range who has a wide spread of odds available. Berger is as low as +3500 at some sportsbooks but can be had at +5000 for an outright bet at Caesars, which is where 2019 U.S. Open winner Gary Woodland also went off at many places for the week. He fits plenty of trends and will be playing in this event for the eighth time this year, and he has two top-10 finishes to his credit since 2018. Berger really fits the prototypical U.S. Open player in a lot of ways, as he’s a great mid-iron player who has excelled at tougher par-70 venues around the PGA Tour. He looked great his last time out at Memorial, gaining over five strokes on approach and putting, making him a good add at +5000 or better.
U.S. Open Top 10 Bets
Aaron Wise Top 10 +800 | DraftKings
Aaron Wise has to be one of the most underrated players in this field from an odds perspective, as he finished solo second in his last start in one of the stronger fields of the year at the Memorial. Wise has been in elite tee-to-green form almost all year and comes in ranked 10th in strokes gained on approach over the last 24 rounds. Plus, his short game has been trending positively since early March. Wise will be playing the U.S. Open for the fourth time as well, and he is right in that sweet spot for experience where a breakout in this event would be expected. He also has a positive ROI at +800 on OddsShopper and a 12% win rate, which is more than enough to make him a target this week.
U.S. Open Matchups/To Make the Cut Bets
Webb Simpson to Make the Cut -134 | FanDuel
One really simple market for some value in majors is that of make/miss the cut bets. With a deep field, there are some very nice prices on top-end players just to make the weekend. Webb Simpson is one of those players and projects with a positive ROI to make the cut at -134 and a 60% win rate on OddsShopper. Simpson has a great U.S. Open track record that includes making the cut at this event in eight of his last 10 appearances. He won back in 2012 and finished 16th or better at the U.S. Open between 2018 to 2020. Simpson is back in form and looking healthy, having now finished top 30 in his last two starts and gaining strokes on approach in each of his last four starts on the PGA Tour. He’s a good back at this price.
Daniel Berger +105 vs. Dustin Johnson (Tournament Matchup) | DraftKings
Despite Dustin Johnson being a former winner and runner-up of this event, there are no issues with targeting him in matchups. Johnson looked off in his return to golf at the LIV event in London last week, where he struggled to keep pace with names like Charl Schwartzel and Hennie Du Plessis. Berger, meanwhile, was plying his trade against the world’s best and put up a fantastic fifth-place finish at the Memorial, where he was sharp with his irons and displayed the kind of elite approach game that will make him a danger this week on a slightly shorter setup. Hammering Berger at solid +105 odds feels more than correct, as this fades a player who has looked wild with his driver over the past year and has perhaps chosen a quick payday over proper preparation for the U.S. Open.
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