The fall series goes from its best event in terms of star power and strength of field to what is clearly its weakest. The Butterfield Bermuda Championship started off as an opposite field event, but with the PGA doing away with its fall series WGC it now stands alone as the only PGA event on the docket this week. While you can understand why the top players don’t want to play on a quirky little course on a remote island in the middle of the Atlantic, in November, this week does pose a lot of opportunity to the mid-to-bottom tier players on the PGA, and specifically those with less than full member status. For betting and DFS, it’s undoubtedly a time to look at player’s longer in odds and hope something clicks for those coming into this event hurting in form.
Don’t forget to check out the Stokastic PGA DFS projections, which has both scoring data, and PGA DFS ownership projections. Stokastic PGA DFS projections come out on Monday and will be updated throughout the week. This week has a field that will be tough to wade through given the lack of elite talent so using the Stokastic Model will be even more important than usual.
PGA DFS Picks: 2022 Butterfield Bermuda Championship
We’ll be brief in recapping last week as many of the players who played in South Carolina aren’t in the field this week. Rory McIlroy won (again) his third event since July and also regained status as the number one player in the official world golf rankings. For a while it looked like we’d get a McIlroy – Jon Rahm showdown until Rahm stumbled on a couple holes and McIlroy reeled of multiple birdies. It was Kurt Kitayama who ended up being McIlroy’s biggest competition last Sunday and a three-putt on 18 nearly gave us a playoff. Kitayama ultimately fell one shot short, finishing solo second for the second time in 2022. His two losses have come to McIlroy and Jon Rahm so it’s hardly a case of a player choking, just poor timing and luck if anything that he hasn’t won yet.
Top Strokes Gained CJ Cup:
Approach: K.H. Lee
Off the Tee: Rory McIlroy
Tee to Green: Rory McIlroy
Putting: Sam Burns
Other notes: Jason Day finished top 15 for the second event in a row and gained over 6.0 strokes ball striking (for the second event in a row). Day is potentially setting himself up for a massive comeback in 2023, it’s not outlandish to go take some futures on him at all of the majors right now… Friday through Sunday the player who had the best score was Tommy Fleetwood. Like Day, Fleetwood looks ready to potentially bounce-back with a big year in 2023 and go after his first PGA win.
Here’s a list of the notable players in the field for the Butterfield Bermuda Championship field this week:
- Seamus Power (only player ranked in the top of the OWGR this week)
- Denny McCarthy
- Akshay Bhatia
- Chesson Hadley
- Aaron Rai
- Stephan Jaeger
The Butterfield Bermuda Championship doesn’t have any true headliners. Players like Seamus Power and Denny McCarthy will have the most name power of the group, but they won’t carry anywhere near the value of usual favorites last week’s. Some interesting names are in the field though including the likes of Akshay Bhatia, Callum Tarren and Seonghyeon Kim. Kim has finished 13th and 4th in his last two fall series starts and is certainly in the upper echelon of this incredibly week field which has a 65-year-old Bermuda politician in it (Kim Swan). A couple other players to keep an eye on here will be Mark Hubbard and veteran Luke Donald. Donald ranks inside the top five in strokes gained on approach in long term form (not a huge accomplishment in this field) and will love the shorter, forgiving setup off the tee.
The Butterfield Bermuda Championship Past Winners
2021: Lucas Herbert (66-1)
- Lead-in: MC/MC/36 (had played in two fall series events, was off week prior)
2020: Brian Gay (200-1)
- Lead-in: MC/MC/MC (had played in two fall series events, was off week prior)
2019: Brendon Todd (100-1)
- Lead-in: 28/MC/MC (had played in five fall events prior, but did not play week prior)
With a field that has never attracted any elite talent and a very easy setup that allows players into their late 40’s to compete, the eclectic group of winners should not be a shock. Lucas Herbert won last year and could aptly be described as the cream of the crop in terms of champions of this event. The first year saw short-hitting Brendon Todd break out of a three-year drought that was so bad that he had trouble shooting sub-75 rounds. The next year saw the most outlandish winner in Brian Gay who knocks it even shorter than Todd. Herbert put some respectability back into this event and he did have to outrun Patrick Reed and Danny Lee down the stretch. It’s also worth noting that Wyndham Clark lost here in a playoff to Gay in 2020 so big hitters who can bring it with the putter have fared well as that’s the prototype that Herbert also used to win. Ultimately though, the putter will dictate things this week and players currently out of form, whose putter finds a groove on these smallish greens, are more than capable of doing something crazy at this short course.
Want to see who is trending as a strong play early? Check out Stokastic’s PGA DFS projections, which will be updated on Monday and throughout the week.
The Butterfield Bermuda Championship Course Preview
Port Royal Golf Club—Southampton, Bermuda: Par 71, 6,828 yards
Greens: Bermuda
Designer: Robert Trent Jones
Similar Courses:
Waialae (Sony Open), Cocoa Beach (Puerto Rico Open) and El Chameleon (Mayakoba)
This is the third year in a row that this event will be played at Port Royal Golf Club, a shorter Robert Trent Jones designed course. The Oceanside course is the longest on the tiny island but still only stretches out to just over 6,800 yards, making it extremely short by PGA TOUR standards.
There’s not much strategy to get into this week with the venue. It’s a pitch and putt by PGA standards but it’s presence near the sea and open nature means that the wind can and will play havoc with the player’s ball flight. The winning score the last two years has been 15 under par and the winds have kept the scores reasonable since the first season when Brendon Todd torched the venue to the tune of 21-under par.
In 2020, Brian Gay was an unlikely winner here and averaged just 287 yards off the tee in the win. He ranked 10th in putts per green in regulation and 17th in green-in-regulation percentage. Last season, Lucas Herbert ranked top 15 in driving distance, scrambling and putting. He also ranked just 75th in greens in regulation. It’s a strange collection of winners we’ve had but both Gay and 2019 winner Brendon Todd are ultimately strong iron players at their best who can get red hot on the greens — and at their prime were among the best putters in the world. The two have also done the best work of their career at shorter venues like Waialae, Hilton Head and El Camaleon (host of the Mayakoba Classic in December), which are all likely great comparisons for this week’s test.
Port Royal Golf Club – Past Winners and Stats
2021 — Lucas Herbert (11 under par)
Stats: Scrambling – 4th/Driving Distance – 9th/Putts Per GIR – 14th/Greens in Reg – 75th
2021 — Brian Gay (15 under par)
Stats: Scrambling – 17th/Driving Distance – 48th/Putts Per GIR – 10th/Greens in Reg – 17th
2021 — Brendon Todd (21 under par)
Stats: Scrambling – 5th/Driving Distance – 81st/Putts Per GIR – 3rd/Greens in Reg – 11th
The Butterfield Bermuda Championship Recent Form Watch
Strokes Gained on Approach (Last 50 Rounds)
- Mark Hubbard
- Erik van Rooyen
- Stephan Jaeger
- Vaughn Taylor
- Alex Smalley
Strokes Gained Tee to Green (Last 50 Rounds)
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- Stephan Jaeger
- Davis Thompson
- Cameron Percy
- Mark Hubbard
- Aaron Rai
Top Five Strokes Gained Total (Last Six Events)
- Seonghyeon Kim
- Justin Lower
- Davis Thompson
- Mark Hubbard
- Thomas Detry
The Butterfield Bermuda Championship Weather Forecast
Thursday a.m.: 75 F, winds 8-9 mph/35-45% chance of precipitation
Thursday p.m.: 78-80 F, winds 11-12 mph/55-60% chance of precipitation
Friday a.m.: 78-80 F, winds 11-12 mph/chance of precipitation 60%
Friday p.m.: 80 F, winds 13-14 mph/chance of precipitation 50-55%
Just to compound matters this week, it looks like there will be some rain and potential thunderstorms. The randomness of this course is only going to get ramped up if there’s stoppages and wind over 10 mph. Prepare for both.
For more updates for the Shriners Hospital for Children Open, tune into the PGA DFS Lineup Builder show Tuesday afternoon on the Stokastic YouTube Channel.
Butterfield Bermuda Championship Early Betting Leans
Stephan Jaeger | BetMGM Outright
Jaeger is a six-time winner on the Korn Ferry Tour who is used to travelling the globe. He’s not going to be intimated by anyone in the field this week and actually sets up perfect for a quirky course as he’s fantastic around the greens and capable of going big with the putter. Jaeger’s playing the most consistent golf of his career right now as well and is top five in strokes gained approach and tee to green over the last 50-rounds. Don’t expect to see triple digits on him this week but if you can jump on Jaeger at 30-1 or bigger Monday it’s probably not a poor idea. He finished 20th at this venue last season and enters this year in much better form. Look for good numbers on him in the top five/10 and outright bet markets.
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