The PGA Tour heads to Vegas this week for the Shriners Hospital for Children Open. This event often gets a few bigger names, as the Vegas location makes it somewhat more attractive to the bigger names in golf.
There’s lots to wade through this week, so don’t forget to check out the Stokastic PGA DFS projections, which have both scoring data and PGA DFS ownership projections. Stokastic PGA DFS projections come out on Monday and will be updated throughout the week. There’s a ton of big PGA DFS contests around the industry so be sure to check them out before making any final decisions.
PGA DFS Preview: Shriners Hospital for Children Open
Last week’s event produced an unlikely winner in Mackenzie Hughes. Hughes played well last fall, as well, but he went cold towards the end of the 2021-22 season and only produced one top-10 in 2022. He was chased down the stretch by an eclectic group that included PGA winners Sepp Straka and Garrick Higgo.
One thing of note going forward is the way momentum can play a huge role in the fall swing. Players will often hold form after one or two starts, and often a lot of the same names chase down trophies on the final day throughout the fall. Good performances from the FedEx Cup playoffs can often be a good indicator of breakthroughs in the fall, as it was with Straka and Scott Stallings last week, two players who both featured heavily in the playoffs this season.
Top Strokes Gained from Sanderson Farms
Approach: Nick Hardy +7.3
Tee to Green: Mackenzie Hughes +9.2
Putting: Adam Long + 9.8
Shriners Hospital for Children Open PGA DFS Picks and Preview
The Shriners Hospital for Children Open has a regular cut line of the top 65 players and ties. It’s a full-field event with 150-plus players and has quite a bit more talent at the top of the board than last week’s field, which had just one player in the top 40 of the OWGR. This week the event features 12 players in the top 50 of the OWGR, with the highest-ranked player being Patrick Cantlay at No. 4.
Here’s a list of the top 5 players in the OWGR in the Shriners field this week.
- Patrick Cantlay — 4
- Max Homa — 17
- Sungjae Im — 19
- Tom Kim — 21
- Aaron Wise — 36
Other Notables: Si Woo Kim, Garrick Higgo, Rickie Fowler, Alex Noren, Emiliano Grillo
While the two playoff combatants from last week are both skipping the event this week, there are a lot of players in Vegas who were in contention deep last Sunday. Emiliano Grillo and Garrick Higgo both had big weeks at the Sanderson Farms and look primed to compete at this week’s birdie fest. There are also quite a few new faces coming in, including Presidents Cup members like Tom Kim and Si Woo Kim, who were both part of the International side. Expect Tom Kim to be extremely popular for DFS (and betting) after his success and the attention he gained at that event. The top of the field this week is much stronger, with Cantlay, Homa and Im all attending. Cantlay has owned this event in past years, with four finishes of eighth or better (including a win) in four career appearances.
The Shriners Hospital for Children Open Past Winners
2021: Sungjae Im (33-1)
- Lead-in: 31/20/3/16 (posted a top-five in FedEx playoffs and played week prior at Sanderson)
2020: Martin Laird (250-1)
- Lead-in: 28/65/MC/65 (played Sanderson week prior; didn’t play in FedEx playoffs)
2019: Kevin Na (60-1)
- Lead-in: MC/14/77/43 (had already made two prior starts in fall swing)
2018: Bryson DeChambeau (14-1)
- Lead-in: 19/19/1/1 (won twice in FedEx Cup playoffs; was making first fall start of year)
This event has had an eclectic group of winners. Im had good momentum from a strong playoffs last season but had also played the week prior to the Shriners at the Sanderson Farms and put in a solid week. Laird and Na, though, really had mediocre to average form but had made a couple of start already in the fall. If targeting players down in the odds, ensuring they have at least a one or two fall starts under their belt is a good idea when looking for potential values that could help in betting and DFS.
Want to see who is trending as a strong play early? Check out Stokastic’s PGA DFS projections, which will be updated on Monday and throughout the week.
Shriners Hospital for Children Open Course Preview
TPC Southwind (Memphis, Tennessee): Par 71, 7,255
Greens: Bentgrass
Designer: Bobby Weed (1991) — Fuzzy Zoeller as player consultant
Similar Courses:
- TPC Stadium
- TPC Sawgrass
- TPC Twin Lakes
- TPC Scottsdale
This week’s TPC Summerlin design has a lot in common with a lot of the other TPC courses across the PGA schedule. It’s a shorter par 71 that plays even shorter than usual given its altitude. That’s not to say that off-tee play isn’t a factor at this venue, and a lot of the past winners over the last decade have been good to great off-tee players. However, this venue usually boils down to a couple of things: Approach play and putting.
The last four winners have all ranked top 10 in strokes gained approach or strokes gained putting for the week, and it’s been an eclectic group that’s included tee-to-green savants like DeChambeau and Im, but also veterans like Laird and Na. Na’s 14.2 strokes gained putting from his 2019 win still stand as the one-event PGA Tour record, and the ability for anyone to get hot on these pure bentgrass greens can’t go overlooked. Even last year, Im was able to pair an elite tee-to-green game with a putter that gained him 5.5 strokes for the week against the field and allowed him to cruise to a four-shot win.
As for setup, the venue doesn’t have the easiest fairways to hit, but it also features easier roughs, so players aren’t penalized unless they are truly wild off the tee. Greens at TPC Summerlin rank as some of the easiest to hit on tour, so while the green structures produce low scramble rates, players hitting it well with their short to mid irons won’t have much to worry about.
TPC Summerlin Past Winners and Stats
2021 — Sungjae Im (24-under-par)
- Im had a dominant week at this event last year, leading the field in strokes gained tee to green while also ending up top five in strokes gained putting.
- There wasn’t an area of true weakness for Im, although it was really his hot putting on the weekend that set him apart.
- Im had also played extremely well in the FedEx Cup playoffs in the late summer, which was a trend the 2018 winner had (DeChambeau) as well.
Strokes Gained: TTG +10.6; APP +5.6; OTT +2.6; ATG +2.5; PUTT +5.5
2020 — Martin Laird (23-under par)
- Laird showed up as a massive underdog winner in 2020, winning without a ton of recent form.
- He had played one fall swing event already and was showing some decent ball striking, but nothing that jumped off the page.
- Like most recent winners, he spiked with his approaches and then was in the top 15% of the field in putting as well.
- Laird’s biggest indicator was likely that he’d played well in the desert most of his career, putting together good results at every event on the desert swing, which included some near misses in Phoenix.
Strokes Gained: TTG +9.7; APP +6.5; OTT +1.9; ATG 1.3; PUTT +3.3
2019 — Sebastian Munoz (18 Under Par — played as a WGC)
- In terms of stat splits, this is one of the craziest for a PGA winner.
- Lost strokes tee to green and around the greens but made up for all of it by setting a PGA Tour record for strokes gained putting.
- Na still needed a playoff to get the win, which shows how overly weighted towards putting this performance was — it always offers a clue that this week is a good one to target spike putters.
Strokes Gained: TTG -0.1; APP +1.3; OTT -0.8; ATG -0.5; PUTT +14.2
Shriners Hospital for Children Open Horses to Watch
These are players who continue to defy logic with how consistent they have been at this week’s venue. This section will try to decipher what they do so well and why it allows them to flourish at this venue, but some of this is just player preference.
Want to see if the course horses will be popular? Check out Stokastic’s PGA DFS ownership projections, which will be updated on Monday and throughout the week.
- Chesson Hadley (three top-20s in last five season): Hadley ranks fourth in strokes gained tee to green at this event over the last five seasons. His only PGA Tour win came in Puerto Rico, where the winning score was above 20 under par, so he’s not afraid of these birdie fests. The weakest part of his game (off the tee) doesn’t hinder him as much as this venue.
- Adam Hadwin : (two top-10s in last three years): Hadwin loves the desert. He’s had great results in Palm Springs at another lower-scoring event. He’s posted sixth- and fourth-place finishes at this event in two of the last three seasons and gained multiple strokes on approach last week.
- Joel Dahmen (win in 2021): Dahmen’s course history this week is sneaky good. He’s made the cut at this event in four straight seasons, with two top-25 finishes mixed into that stretch. Dahmen played well at the Sanderson Farms, gaining over four strokes on approach setting himself up for a great follow-up week on this approach-driven venue.
Strokes Gained on Approach (Last 24 Rounds)
- Joohyung (Tom) Kim
- Mito Pereira
- Stephan Jaeger
- Chesson Hadley
- Stephan Jaeger
Birdie or Better % (Last 24 Rounds)
- Joohyung (Tom) Kim
- Trey Mullinax
- Cameron Davis
- Emiliano Grillo
- Ben Griffin
Top Five Strokes Gained Total (Last Six events)
- Sungjae Im
- Joohyung (Tom) Kim
- Taylor Pendrith
- Mito Pereira
- Patrick Cantlay
Shriners Hospital for Children Open Weather Forecast
Thursday a.m.: 70-75 F, Winds 5 mph
Thursday p.m.: 85-90 F, Winds 6-8 mph
Friday a.m.: 70-75 F, Winds 5 mph
Friday p.m.: 85-87 F, Winds 5-7 mph
Much like last week, there is almost nothing in the forecast to worry about. If anything, this week may be even more boring than last week in terms of the draw. One could always play early the early Friday morning wave and hope the greens simply dry out as the week goes on and the Friday afternoon draw gets the worst of the first four waves. That’s really only for mass-entry players, though. Otherwise, just ignore the forecast.
For more updates for the Shriners Hospital for Children Open, tune into the PGA DFS Lineup Builder show Tuesday afternoon on the Stokastic YouTube Channel.
Shriners Hospital for Children Open Early Betting Leans
Matthew NeSmith | BetMGM Outright/Top 10/20
This venue is leads to a main sticking point in research: Players with high-end iron play who have shown a decent track record while playing in the Vegas – Palm Springs – Phoenix desert. NeSmith ranks 11th in longer-term form in strokes gained approach and is coming off a final-round 64 at the Sanderson Farms. He ranked third in strokes gained on approach last week and has played TPC Summerlin three times in the past, finishing 18th or better on all three occasions.
Furthermore, his only Waste Management (played in Phoenix) appearance saw him land a seventh-place finish in 2021. Even with the decent result last week, he should have decent odds when the odds come out. NeSmith makes for a good placing and outright bet to jump on Monday of this week.
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