The PGA Tour heads to Japan this week for the fourth running of the Zozo Championship. The field this week is limited to 78 players, and it’s one of the few remaining events on the PGA schedule that doesn’t have a Friday cut line.
There’s lots to wade through this week, so don’t forget to check out the Stokastic PGA DFS projections, which have both scoring data and PGA DFS ownership projections. Stokastic PGA DFS projections come out on Monday and will be updated throughout the week. There’s a ton of big PGA DFS contests around the industry, so be sure to check them out before making any final decisions.
PGA DFS Preview: Zozo Championship
Well, he did it again. Tom Kim blitzed the field on another birdie-fest venue, this time getting pushed down the stretch by Patrick Cantlay, who imploded on the final hole to allow Kim to win by three strokes. Kim has won twice in his last four starts on the PGA Tour and is entered in the field again this week. Youthful exuberance can overcome a lot, but it will be interesting to see how Kim handles this week’s track, which should play a little tougher and more technical, with five par 3’s and more doglegs. Other top finishers from last week who are also playing here are Matthew NeSmith (second), Mito Pereira (fourth), Sungjae Im (seventh) and Andrew Putnam (12th).
Top Strokes Gained from Shriners Children’s Open
Approach: Mito Pereira +9.0
Tee to Green: Matthew NeSmith +10.4
Putting: Maverick McNealy +10.5
Zozo Championship PGA DFS Picks and Preview
The Zozo Championship is a 78-player event with no cuts, which means a Friday cut line does not factor into projections this week. As of now, there are 15 golfers inside the top 50 in the OWGR set to play, and the bigger $11 million purse certainly has something to do with that.
Here’s a list of the top five players in the OWGR in the Zozo field.
- Xander Schauffele — 5
- Collin Morikawa — 9
- Viktor Hovland — 11
- Sam Burns — 13
- Tony Finau — 14
Other Notables: Cameron Young, Tom Kim, Hideki Matsuyama, Davis Riley, Sahith Theegala
The field this week definitely has a bit of a WGC vibe to it. A lot of top players have chosen to make their way overseas to compete this week, and players like Xander Schauffele, Collin Morikawa, Tony Finau and Viktor Hovland provide the first glimpse of fall golf. There are three young players making their first appearance at this event in Davis Riley, Sahith Theegala and Cameron Young, and all will be chasing their first PGA win this week. Last year’s champion Hideki Matsuyama is also in the field and is coming off a top-30 finish at the Fortinet in the season opener.
The Zozo Championship Past Winners
2021: Hideki Matsuyama (16-1)
- Lead-in: 59/67/6 (was already making his fourth start of the fall)
*2020: Patrick Cantlay (30-1)
- Lead-in: 38/8/43/12 (didn’t make Tour Championship in 2020)
2019: Tiger Woods (33-1)
- Lead-in: 21/MC/37 (didn’t make Tour Championship in 2019)
This is only the fourth running of this event, and it’s already had one season where the venue and location were switched from Japan to Los Angeles. That said, with the added prize purse, it means the top players generally show well at the Zozo. Last year it was Matsuyama, who dominated on a course he knows extremely well in his home country. That shouldn’t be a shock, but other top players have made the trek to this event and have righted the ship after a disappointing playoff. Cantlay stared down Justin Thomas and Jon Rahm in 2020 during his win, and Tiger Woods came to this event off almost no competitive practice and destroyed the field. It may be wise to not drift too far from the top 20 players in the betting arena.
Want to see who is trending as a strong play early? Check out Stokastic’s PGA DFS projections, which will be updated on Monday and throughout the week.
Zozo Championship Course Preview
Accordia Narashino Golf Club (Narashino, Japan): Par 70, 7,041 yards
Greens: Bentgrass
Designer: Shinya Fujita
Similar Courses:
Colonial
Waialae Country Club
Muirfield Village
This will be the third time Accordia Golf Narashino Country Club has been in action on the PGA Tour. The venue is a heavily tree-lined par 70 but features some quirky layout designs that will make it a unique test. There are quite a few doglegs that will almost certainly take driver out of the hands on several of the par 4’s. There are also five par 3’s in play this week, which should emphasize mid to short iron play, as all of them are under 200 yards. The two winners at Accordia (Woods and Matsuyama) are arguably two of the most elite iron players in history.
There is limited data of just two years, but everything about Accordia suggests it will line up with other technical tracks on the PGA Tour like Muirfield Village or Colonial. The course isn’t long, but driving accuracy is still well below the PGA Tour average. The greens aren’t likely to run fast because of the environment, but the smaller greens have produced greens in regulation under the typical PGA average.
Woods and Matsuyama make a good case for focusing on proximity and ball striking, but even last year’s leaderboard had names like Luke List and Keegan Bradley in the top 10. For DFS and betting, it’s likely a good week to emphasize golfers lower down in the rankings who are popping in strokes gained tee to green and appr0ach but haven’t put up a ton of good results yet. With slower greens and a more technical track, this could be a good week for those players with one-dimensional skillset (ball striking).
Zozo Championship Past Winners and Stats
2021 — Hideki Matsuyama (15 Under Par)
- Scored 124 DraftKings points
- Led field in strokes gained par 4’s and also GIR%
- Won by five strokes
2019 — Tiger Woods (18 Under Par — Played as a WGC)
- Ranked 3rd in GIR% for the week
- Scored 133.5 DraftKings points — 20 more than second place
- Won by three strokes
Zozo Championship Horses to Watch
These are players who continue to defy logic with how consistent they have been at this week’s venue. This section will try to decipher what they do so well and why it allows them to flourish at this venue, but some of this is just player preference.
Want to see if the course horses will be popular? Check out Stokastic’s PGA DFS ownership projections, which will be updated on Monday and throughout the week.
- Hideki Matsuyama (winner – 2021; runner-up 2019): Matsuyama has plenty of experience playing Accordia, going all the way back in his amateur days. He’s gone second and first in two starts on the PGA Tour and likely will challenge again this year. His leadup hasn’t been as ideal as last year, but he did gain 2.6 strokes on approach in his last outing at the Fortinet.
- Sebastian Munoz (4th – 2021): Munoz scored a fourth-place finish at Accordia last year and is a surprisingly strong par-3 player, ranking top 10 in this field in strokes gained on par 3’s. He played solid golf in the Presidents Cup and is capable of challenging here again this year.
- Keegan Bradley (7th – 2021; 13th – 2019): Bradley has played in this event in both years that the event has taken place in Japan. The venue appeals to Bradley’s ball striking, and he has five top-10 finishes since March.
Strokes Gained on Approach (Last Rounds)
- Joohyung (Tom) Kim
- Mark Hubbard
- Corey Conners
- Brendan Steele
- Xander Schauffele
Strokes Gained: Tee to Green (Last 24 Rounds)
- Brendan Steele
- Corey Conners
- Sungjae Im
- Joohyung (Tom) Kim
- Mito Pereira
Top Five Strokes Gained Total (Last Six Events)
- Sungjae Im
- Emiliano Grillo
- Andrew Putnam
- Tom Kim
- Mito Pereira
Zozo Championship Weather Forecast
Thursday a.m.: 60 F, Winds 10 mph
Thursday p.m.: 65-70 F, Winds 10-15 mph with medium chance of rain forming in afternoon
Friday a.m.: 60-65 F, Winds 5 mph
Friday p.m.: 70-75 F, Winds 5-7 mph
It’s a reduced field and a no-cut event, so stacking waves isn’t likely to make a lot of sense. There’s also the weather that doesn’t look like it will bring huge shifts in conditions. Thursday looks like the coolest day, as highs aren’t expected to get above 68 F and it is overcast for the entire day. Rain could fall at points on Thursday afternoon but will likely only work to soften up the course. Overall, the slightly cooler conditions should be good for the elite iron players, as those struggling in that regard won’t get any help from thinner/warmer air.
For more updates for the Zozo Championship, tune into the PGA DFS Lineup Builder show Tuesday afternoon on the Stokastic YouTube Channel.
Zozo Championship Early Betting Leans
Mito Pereira | BetMGM Outright/Top 10/20
Much like NeSmith did last week (second-place finish at Shriners), Pereira stands out as an early target this week for betting based mainly on his improving ball striking. Pereira led the field in strokes gained on approach at the Shriners but struggled a touch on and around the greens, which stopped him from getting up to the leading score of 24 under par. Pereira still shot four rounds of 67 or better, though, and he should find this week’s layout at Accordia more inviting. He’s ranked in the top 10 in par-3 efficiency (there are five on the course) over the last 50 rounds and handled similar tracks like Colonial and Muirfield well last year. Look to him early Monday before lines mov,e as the crowds may be eager to jump on him now that he’s finally shown some form again.
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