Above the Cut: PGA DFS Picks for the 2020 Farmers Insurance Open

This week, we will be staying in California, but heading on over to Torrey Pines in San Diego for the Farmers Insurance Open. This is another multi-course event. Each golfer playing the North course on either Thursday or Friday with the weekend featuring the South course alone. The cut will be after 36 holes unlike last week’s crazy 54-hole cut. Since golfers who make the cut will be playing the South course three out of four rounds, I will be mostly focusing on players whose games fit the style of that course for PGA DFS this week.

For anyone who is new to PGA DFS, this is going to be a public service announcement for the early part of the season: remember we are dealing with the new cut rule of Top 65 and ties instead of the Top 70 we are used to seeing. That will make 6-for-6 incredibly elusive and 5-for-6 will have a chance to hang on in smaller fields and weeks with only a handful of rosters surviving the cut.

The Course

Both courses are par 72 with the South course measuring in at over 7,600 yards making it one of the longer ones the players will see on tour and certainly a challenging test. This is going to bump up the bombers off the tee as distance is going to be a key factor. Unlike last week, I don’t expect this to be a birdie fest, so I am going to target golfers who excel in bogey avoidance as this course is going to put up a fight.

Players who make a lot of birdies always will have the advantage as they naturally put up more points, but on harder courses like this one, you can certainly look to players who are more consistent and stay out of trouble. Par will be more than acceptable on many of these challenging holes. This is a much stronger field than last week as many of the top players are teeing it up and you have the man himself, Tiger Woods, returning to action looking to build upon 2019 and his recent Presidents Cup performance.

** Don’t forget to check out the daily shows throughout the week where we touch on various topics from Sports Betting, Week in Review, and plenty of PGA tour golf breakdowns. You can find all my shows during the week on the  Awesemo.com YouTube homepage. **

The Field

This is a stronger field than we have seen with a good amount of the top-tier players in attendance for this one. Rory Mcilroy leads us off at $11,600, followed by Jon Rahm, Tiger Woods, and Justin Rose to round out the top four price tags. With the strength of this field, the talent doesn’t stop there with a ton of top-end players available in the $8,000-9,000 range if you are looking to go balanced. As we work down to the lower ranges, it’s a lot of similar names from the swing season and tournies like we saw last week.

Weather will be a little tricky since players are at certain courses on certain days. Make sure to keep an eye on Slack as things may update as we get closer to lock. Also make sure to check out the Wednesday night Awesemo.com PGA DFS Show where we will update weather and talk about lineup construction and player pool and take questions from the chat.

** If you aren’t yet a member here at Awesemo.com and thinking about giving us a try, use the Promo Code “JAZZRAZ” on the Awesemo sign-up page and it will get you will get 50% off your first week of any package.**

Quick Targets

Top Priced

Jon Rahm $11,300 DraftKings, $12,000 FanDuel  

Obviously, Rory McIlroy is the favorite and you never have to convince me to roster the best player in the world. However, McIlroy took a long layoff and we haven’t seen him since November which is basically a three-month layoff. The form was as good as you could find, but there is legitimate concerns about how he will start off the season.

It’s not like we have seen Jon Rahm a lot, but he played in the Tournament of Champions earlier in January. The Spaniard won the Farmers Open in 2017 and has the perfect game to take apart a course of this length. His off-tee game is in the McIlroy category and Rahm obviously loves the event having played it three straight years. With the strength you have up top, there are plenty of options, but I give the slightest edge to Rahm over McIlroy when looking at the very top.

Hideki Matsuyama $9,900 DraftKings, $11,000 FanDuel

I don’t consider this a buy-low spot on Matsuyama, but if he has a big year, this price is only going to increase. Matsuyama got things started at the Sony with a 12th-place finish in a relatively weak field. The result wasn’t earth shattering, but the stats were as he gained 10 strokes tee to green. Furthermore, the irons did the heavy lifting and if he didn’t lose 3.5 putting, he would have been in contention.

Matsuyama finished third at this event last year and has plenty of experience at this course with a wide range of results. He has ability with his irons and doesn’t mind dealing with the beast that is this course’s length. The Poa greens sometimes can be a great equalizer and he actually has shown some abilities on the surface. Matsuyama could be your second man in or the lead guy if you are looking to save salary up top.

Also Considering – Tony Finau

Mid-Range

Marc Leishman $8,300 DraftKings, $9,800 FanDuel

It is always a roller coaster when trying to roster Leishman as he is all over the map. Part of that may have been due to injuries, but the hope is he is healthy in 2020 and can have more consistent form. Things certainly looked promising at the Sony as Leishman gained 4.4 strokes off the tee and another 6.8 with his irons. The only thing that prevented a big finish was the short game that let him down with -4.0 strokes gained putting.

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If Leishman is able to replicate any type of ball striking performance like Sony, then he is underpriced and one of my favorite mid-range plays. The strength of this field isn’t an issue and I prefer targeting Leishman at non-birdie fests in PGA DFS where he doesn’t need to be in attack mode all the time. There is still risk considering the erratic nature of the game, but this is a buy-low spot that I’m willing to target as we are still so early in the season.

Ryan Palmer $8,000 DraftKings, $9,700 FanDuel

So far so good for Palmer and his 2020 season. He was eligible for the Tournament of Champions, which is an accomplishment in itself, and then got his real season started with a fourth-place finish at the Sony. He was dialed in during the swing season and it seems like the form and ball striking have carried over to start this year. Palmer leans on the approach game as he isn’t a good putter and not a bomber off the tee.

Palmer is in a range with a lot of reasonable PGA DFS options which should temper the ownership expectations. We have a number of pivots available if we do want to go elsewhere, but Palmer is firmly in play this week. As long as he continues to gain tee to green, he should be able to return value and if the putter randomly gets going, he could find himself in contention once again.

Also Considering – Benny An

Lower Priced

Russell Knox $7,600 DraftKings, $9,100 FanDuel

All you are going to hear this week is how important driving distance is to attacking these courses. While I agree with that statement, it should make guys who aren’t long hitters totally off the radar and that is something we can exploit. Knox is the opposite of a bomber, but that doesn’t mean he cannot be effective at a track like this.

Knox has made seven straight cuts dating back to last year and played last week at La Quinta in their three-course rotational. While those courses are a lot easier, it is still good to see Knox out there and see his irons gaining once again. There is no arguing that Knox prefers a shorter par 70, but he still has had some success at courses that demand length and is 3-for-4 in cuts made over the last five years here. While I don’t think correlating short hitters is a build I will be exploring, I still will have some exposure to guys like Knox who are going to be undervalued just based on the driving distance buzz around this event.

Pat Perez $7,000 DraftKings, $8,900 FanDuel

Last year, it was reported that Perez possibly tore his Achilles, which would have sidelined him for a long time. He returned to action only a few weeks later and despite some ups and downs, he is playing quality golf. He comes into this week having made five straight cuts (dating back to last year) and looked good in his recent rounds at the Sony.

Perez isn’t the strongest off-tee player in the field which can be concerning at the Farmers. However, he has shown some boom/bust ability at the Farmers with fourth and second finishes over the last five years with a handful of missed cuts. That type of variance is something we want to avoid in cash, but embrace in GPPs. With his game seemingly in good shape, I don’t mind him as a lower-range dart throw as he has proven he can compete at this event despite the lack of firepower off the tee.

Also Considering – Harry Higgs (stop making quadruple bogeys please)

Quick Notes

Strength of Field

This is the first full event of the season featuring a ton of the best players in the world. This always makes your PGA DFS teams look better as you can roster quality golfers up and down the salary range with the depth this field has. It is not to say that you should ignore recent form, but keep in mind the difference between this field and a lot of the recent events that we have seen. The lack of win equity opened up some massive longshots and a ton of newcomers were able to get in contention in events like last week. That will not be the situation this week which is something to be aware of when building your lineups.

If you have any PGA DFS questions find me in the Awesemo.com premium slack chat.

Good Luck!

Author
*Ben Rasa (aka Jazzraz)* has been involved with sports and numbers for quite some time dabbling in the poker world , sports wagering and of course finding a home in the DFS world. While he enjoys playing NFL, NCAAF and NBA he has found his best advantage on the links with PGA and the Euro Tour. Jazzraz focuses on GPPs and uses a analytical approach to try and find pricing inefficiencies as well as trying to go against the grain to find those under owned lesser know players that can make the difference in giant field tournaments. You can contact Ben by emailing [email protected].

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