The PGA Tour is staying put this week as we continue the two-week Muirfield Village visit with the Memorial set to tee off this Thursday. This comes off the heels of the Workday Charity Open, which was also played at Muirfield Village last week. That is something we never see on Tour, and getting a chance to see the course and what it demands could help us choose golfers. I am expecting some minor changes in terms of tee boxes and the rough length, but overall this is the same course as last week.
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The Course
This is going to sound familiar, but here we go. Muirfield Village is a par-72 layout, measuring in at around 7,400 yards so we once again have four Par 5s to take advantage of. However, this course also has six long Par 4s, all over 450 yards, so surviving those will be a key test for the players. The fairways are easy to hit, but bombers need to still be careful, as the rough is unforgiving, and there are hazards lurking if they start spraying the ball.
Reports are the rough is worse than last week, so that is something to take notice of if guys are missing fairways. We are going to want players who hit a bunch of greens in regulation, as consistent scrambling opportunities are a recipe for disaster at this place. Guys who hit driver off the tee are going to be pushing the risk-reward button often, but it still can be effective if some of the bombers are keeping it out of the nasty stuff.
Greens are Bentgrass and are expected to speed up relative to what the field saw last week. Overall, putting is secondary to targeting the elite iron players and guys who can give themselves plenty of birdie opportunities. If players are not hitting the greens, they better have the ability to save out of the sand and hole some long par putts, because this course will test both of those things.
The Field
Last week’s field was decent considering it was a pseudo-tournament, but this is a whole different animal. The Memorial is a staple of most of top players’ schedules, and this year is no different with a major-level field ready to play. One thing to note: This is an invitational, which means a slightly smaller field of around 133 players rather than a full 156 or 144 that we see on other weeks. This will slightly help the 6-for-6 percentage even though it’s going to be difficult to navigate a field of this quality.
We kick pricing off with Bryson DeChambeau, the lone player north of $11,000, followed by Justin Thomas and Rory McIlroy as the top three options on DraftKings. This field is stacked top to bottom, so you have a ton of choices besides the top three, which gives both aggressive and balanced builds some value this week.
Quick Targets
Top Priced
Rory McIlroy $10,700 DraftKings, $11,800 FanDuel
There is a pretty simple formula for me with McIlroy these days. If he isn’t the top-priced guy, I have interest; and if he isn’t the top-priced guy and not expected to be mega-owned, I have even more interest. This seems to be the case here as he is a few hundred dollars cheaper than DeChambeau and ownership could be level or even slightly under what we project DeChambeau’s to be. McIlroy is the best golfer in the world to me and recent form isn’t going to change that, despite how good DeChambeau has looked.
We didn’t see McIlroy last week, but he is poised to destroy the Par 5s and has plenty of experience getting around Memorial. His results post-break haven’t been fantastic (32nd, 41st and 11th), but he set himself up to compete and simply didn’t have the Sundays needed to close the door. With so many options up top, you can go many directions, but one of my main priorities will be getting exposure to McIlroy and building around him.
Jon Rahm $9,300 DraftKings, $11,400 FanDuel
I liked Rahm a ton last week, and although he made the cut, he really did not contend or do much of anything. Then on Sunday, he went out while not in contention and fired 64, which included some of the best ball striking we will see by anyone all season. He crushed the Par 5s and provided a glimpse of what we can do when it is clicking on this course.
The one negative to that Sunday round was everyone took notice and it could push his ownership upward with the price dropping. That’s not going to deter me from using Rahm in this spot, as I think he is poised to put forward a more consistent effort, particularly with ball striking. If the course is playing more difficultly, that shouldn’t bother him and I think actually translates better to his game pending he can keep his cool and avoid the major blowups.
Mid Range
Rickie Fowler $8,800 DraftKings, $10,300 FanDuel
Fowler has been tough to gauge coming out of the break with some moments where he looked world class, while other times there was serious cause for concern. The confusing part is these sometimes are within the same round and that has limited the upside, as Fowler could not avoid the blowup holes and big numbers. Last week was a decent 22nd-place showing, but it had moments where it looked like Fowler was going to crack the Top 10 and grab some placement points.
Digging into the stats we don’t see any glaring issues, as Fowler has been solid tee to green and gaining slightly on the greens. He has the potential to gain even more with the flat stick, and that should help the upside that right now hasn’t been there. Fowler is another golfer who could, and should, benefit from a setup that is even more difficult, as he is world class around the green. If he can just tune up the irons a little, we could see a spot where it finally clicks and we get the best version of Fowler.
Sergio Garcia $7,800 DraftKings, $9,700 FanDuel
We haven’t seen Garcia a lot so far, but we have a little information to go off of. He’s teed it up three times post-break and found the weekend twice, including a fifth-place finish at RBC Heritage. That was due to an insane 10 strokes gained on the approach, which is going to put one in contention pretty much regardless of what else they do. Now, we cannot bank on that, but it is good to see the irons are still capable of a big showing at times. Garcia is always a consistent driver of the ball, and that will come in handy this week at The Memorial
Price-wise, it’s a reasonable tag for Garcia, but you have some other options in the same range. Paul Casey makes sense as well, and then there is Byeong Hun An and a few other GPP targets. Overall, I feel most comfortable with Garcia, as he should be ready to face a tough test here and with a few makes on the greens should exceed value.
Also Considering – Patrick Reed, Paul Casey (Cash Viable)
Lower Priced
Keegan Bradley $7,200 DraftKings, $8,500 FanDuel
It’s the way it should be when we get into the value options, but man, there isn’t a lot to like down here. We have a lot of guys who are talented but with some major red flags, as well as a bunch who rarely see courses this difficult. Either way, we are going to be forced to make some decisions, especially if we want to take a few of those top-tier players in the same lineup.
Bradley is always regarded as a good ball striker and poor putter, but last week was at another level, even for him. He gained 10.7 strokes on the approach and lost a ridiculous seven strokes putting, which wasted a real chance to cash in on that kind of iron play. It’s not super surprising since Bradley is a poor putter, but it still is worth noting how well he struck it around Muirfield.
Considering I have been on Bradley leading up to this spot, it is an easy buy again for me, and I will just roll the dice that we can see even an average showing on the greens. Obviously, I am not expecting another 10 strokes gained on approach, but I do think the ball striking is more likely to stay strong while the putter adjusts than the other way around.
Chez Reavie $6,700 DraftKings, $8,300 FanDuel
Ideally, I won’t need to dip into the $6,000 range much, but realistically I most likely will need at least some targets down here with the way I want to build. This is going to require embracing some risk, as the players are either struggling or not as talented as some of the pricier options on the slate. We have a few guys that stand out and one of them is Chez Reavie, who is coming off a respectable 17th last week at this course.
Reavie doesn’t jump off the screen, but he is a winner on Tour with experience in strong fields like this. Last week, he gained across the board, which is always a positive sign, and he actually thrives in tougher conditions rather than birdie-fests. Normally, I don’t look to Reavie because he isn’t a volatile scorer, but with what we are expecting here, it makes much more sense and fills a crucial role as the last man in lineups.
Also Considering – Emiliano Grillo, Adam Hadwin
