The second leg of the PGA playoffs will involve just a field of 69 golfers after Cam Smith withdrew Monday with a hip injury and will also have no cut. That has major implications for daily fantasy golf purposes. This year the event visits a venue that has never been seen on the PGA Tour in Wilmington Country Club. As for the field, only the top 30 in the FedEx Cup points race will move on after this week, so there is a ton at stake for the players on or near the bubble this week.
BMW Championship DFS Golf Picks & Projections
Located in Delaware, Wilmington Country Club is a Robert Trent Jones design and looks to play as a long par 71 at around 7,534 yards. The venue features large bentgrass greens (around 8,000 square feet), which will be a marked change from last week’s smaller Bermuda greens. Trent Jones’ other popular PGA design (Firestone Country Club) was a longer, driver-friendly venue as well, and by all accounts Wilmington should set up somewhat similarly. Thick rough will guard the tree-lined fairways, and the heat expected for this week should mean firm and fast greens. Players with great strokes gained off the tee and good greens-in-regulation percentages should be favored here. It’s always tough to guess how a new course will play, but Wilmington could yield few birdies and a winning score similar to last week.
Wilmington Country Club Stats and Info
- Par 71; will play at 7,534 yards with smaller bentgrass greens. Water comes into play on just a few holes, and the venue has only a few gentle doglegs.
- Should correlate well with Trent Jones’ Firestone Country Club, which often featured poor driving accuracy averages and higher driving distance averages. Longer holes and hard-to-hit fairways seem like they will be common at Wilmington as well.
- Look for both accuracy and distance off the tee to play a role. If targeting a shorter hitter, make sure they either have stellar approach numbers from 150-plus yards out and a trending short game.
BMW Championship 2022 DFS Golf Picks
Total Points Projection: 67.2 | Top 6 percentage: 26.46%
The top of the board this week in the projections doesn’t look a ton different than the previous event, but the gap has certainly been closed on first-place Rory McIlroy. While McIlroy was the clear-cut favorite last week, Patrick Cantlay is now a standout as a very solid in the Stokastic projections. Cantlay has the highest points projection of any golfer under $10,000 on DraftKings and the best value score of the top five players in the model.
Cantlay had a frustrating weekend in Memphis, shooting 71 and 72, but he didn’t look all that bad in the first two rounds and is back on bentgrass greens this week. That should give him some good feels given his success at places like Muirfield Village and Caves Valley. Cantlay should be in a decent chunk of rosters, but it seems unlikely he’ll trend too hot after his poor finish. Stokastic’s projections are pretty bullish on him, though, especially given where he sits in salary structure on the major sites.
Projected PGA DFS Ownership: DraftKings 19.9%| FanDuel 26.2%
- Has gained over three strokes putting in his last three PGA Tour starts on non-Bermuda greens.
- Ranks first in strokes gained putting on bentgrass greens over his last 50 rounds.
Total Points Projection: 67.3 | Top 6 percentage: 19.52%
There was a lot of hoopla around Cameron Young early last week, as details leaked about his upcoming defection to the LIV golf tour. Nothing has been set in stone yet in that regard, but Young clearly seemed a little rattled in Memphis. The extra week to focus should help him, and it feels like social media has already forgotten this happened. From a stat perspective, Young is first in strokes gained off the tee and should love the longer setup, which looks like it will favor strong drivers.
The Stokastic projections liked him last week when his DraftKings price was over $9,000, and they like him more this week now that he’s under that price at $8,900. Young is seventh in total points projected and also has the best value score of anyone over $8,000 on DraftKings. The venue shift should be positive for him too, as he’s gained each of his last two runner-up finishes on non-Bermuda greens. Look for Young’s power off the tee to give him a big advantage this week.
Projected PGA DFS Ownership: DraftKings 15.4% | FanDuel 15.5%
- Has gained over 3.5 strokes off the tee in each of his last six measured starts on the PGA Tour.
- Is fifth in DraftKings points and first in around-the-green play over the last 24 rounds.
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Low-Owned PGA DFS GPP Flier
Total Points Projection: 62.1 | Top 6 percentage: 6.22%
Mito Pereira feels like he could be the surprise of the week. His four-event missed cut streak can almost be forgiven after he lost the PGA Championship in May in the manner he did, but that result should not be forgotten either. He tackled a long venue with big bentgrass greens that week and will again get another shot at a similar type of course in Wilmington. While he only managed a 42nd at the FedEx St. Jude Championship, the fact he made the weekend was encouraging and he ranked 16th in strokes gained on approach. The change in venue should suit him, and he’s an aggressive player in need of a big week for FedEx Cup purposes.
Projected PGA DFS Ownership: DraftKings: 5.3% | FanDuel 4.2%
Top 2 Under 5% in DraftKings Fantasy Golf This Week
This section will target players that should end up under or close to 5% ownership in larger DraftKings Golf GPPs. These picks are boom/bust PGA DFS players with an almost 100% focus on the upside.
Emiliano Grillo ($6,600)
Emiliano Grillo got off to a pretty solid start in Memphis but faltered a little as the week progressed. It is odd that no one seems to want to play him this week at just $6,700, but he’s trending for less than 5% ownership. Grillo has been killing it off the tee this year and gained over 1.5 strokes off the tee in five of his last six starts on the PGA Tour. He looks like a nice sub-$7,000 target on DraftKings in large fields.
Brendan Steele ($6,200)
The consensus down low this week seems to be falling around Trey Mullinax, but there’s another player in Brendan Steele whose off-tee game could give him a huge advantage. Steele had gained over 1.5 strokes off the tee prior to Memphis and also produced a ninth at the longer Southern Hills for the PGA Championship. He’s trending at very low ownership this week, and a return to form could make him a great GPP target.
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