The PGA continues with the Florida swing this week and heads to Bay Hill for the Arnold Palmer Invitational. This event has been a part of the PGA schedule since 1979 but has been played under its current title (Arnold Palmer Inv) since 2007. Bay Hill is a Palmer-owned property and has hosted this event since its inception. The course has undergone some changes over time and the property was spruced up five years back, making the course a great test for the modern pros.
Since this event is both an Invitational and an elevated event there again is a very strong field in play this week. Forty-four of the top 50 players in the Official World Golf Ranking will be teeing it up as of Monday and four of the past five winners of this event will be in the field as well. For PGA DFS purposes the Arnold Palmer Invitational will be similar to the Genesis, where the reduced field led to a higher rate of 6-for-6 lineups on DraftKings but with lower scoring due to the difficulty of the course.
Do not forget to check out the Stokastic PGA DFS projections, which has both scoring data and PGA DFS ownership projections. Stokastic PGA DFS projections come out on Monday and will be updated throughout the week.
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PGA DFS Picks: 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational Preview
Bay Hill plays as a traditional par 72, with four par 5’s. The par-5 16th can be a huge swing hole down the stretch, and there have been many a big eagle putt holed there throughout the years. In terms of players to target, this venue is long but driving distance typically rates under the tour average. Greens-in-regulation percentages are also low, and the winners at Bay Hill tend to be high up in strokes-gained approach stats, so as to avoid the massive amounts of water and limit the number of doubles or worse on the card.
Bay Hill Betting Trends:
With the PGA now back in Florida for the next few weeks, it is a good time to remember that the venues in Florida tend to be more approach driven, and players with success in that area of their game recently take big leaps up at Bay Hill. Of the last five winners of this event, four had posted a top-25 finish or better in their prior PGA start.
Course history also does tend to be a factor to watch this week. Experience playing around the longer, water-protected course has come in handy for almost every single winner here over the past decade. Since 2011, every winner at Bay Hill had played in the Arnold Palmer Invitational the season prior and made the cut. Also, seven of the past eight winners had already posted a 15th placing or better at Bay Hill prior to winning.
This is an event where to look for a solid blend of recent form and course history. While there have been some longer-shot winners at this event in the past, recent winners like Tyrrell Hatton and Francesco Molinari were more solid mid-range betting values that paid off — and had already shown good course history and solid recent form. Don’t drift too far down the betting board this week, especially with the elite field in play.
Below are some of the top players in the field to watch this week given their recent form and course history:
- Jon Rahm: Rahm is coming off his third PGA win of the season out at Riviera where he outdueled Max Homa down the stretch. He is on an incredible heater at the moment but has never won an event in the state of Florida.
- Jason Day: Day won this event back in 2016. He has finished 21st or better in eight of his last nine PGA starts and has now posted three straight top-10s.
- Will Zalatoris: Zalatoris may be starting to show signs that a breakout is near. He gained 7.8 strokes ball-striking at the Genesis and looks more comfortable playing after enduring a back injury last fall.
- Patrick Cantlay: Cantlay broke out of his slump at the Genesis, posting a third-place finish after a final round 67. He has never played this event as a pro so will be at a disadvantage from a course history perspective.
- Rickie Fowler: Fowler may be nearing his peak form. He has posted three top-20 finishes in a row on the PGA Tour and has gained over four strokes on approach in each of those three starts.
Field Notes: South African Christiaan Bezuidenhout is coming off a solid week at the Honda and has finished seventh and 20th at this event in two career starts. He is a potential target to consider in DFS and placing markets … Shane Lowry finished 14th at Riviera and fourth last week at the Honda. Given how well international players have fared at Bay Hill Lowry’s a potential contender this week as well… Gary Woodland has the lead at one point down the stretch at this event last year but faded to finish two back of Scheffler. He is coming off a ninth-place finish at Riviera and looks to be gaining some form.
2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational Past Winners and Winners Stats
2022: Scottie Scheffler
- Lead-in: 7/1/20, (Scheffler played Genesis and in Phoenix, posting two top-10 finishes in the West Coast swing)
- Stats for week of win: SG:OTT -0.4/SG:APP 8.1/SG:ATG 1.2/SG:PUTT 4.3/SG:TTG 8.9
- Scheffler was the only winner from the past five seasons to lose strokes off the tee for the week
- He also had the best week of any winner over the past five seasons with his approaches and was massively positive with his putter
- The scoring was tougher last season which likely put a little more emphasis on approach than OTT
2021: Bryson DeChambeau
- Lead in: 22/MC/7 (played two weeks in a row prior to winning Arnold Palmer)
- Stats for week of win: SG:OTT 7.0/SG:APP 4.0/SG:ATG 1.2/SG:PUTT 2.7/SG:TTG 12.4
- He gained over 11 strokes ball striking and was able to clobber his way around the longer course, gaining over seven strokes off the tee
- DeChambeau didn’t play a ton on the PGA leading in but did make some starts over in Europe and had a solid week in Mexico from a ball-striking standpoint
2020: Tyrrell Hatton
- Lead-in: 6/14/6, (only played in one prior PGA event in 2020 – finished sixth at PGA Mexico two weeks prior)
- Stats for week of win: SG:OTT 1.5/SG:APP 7.5/SG:ATG 1.5/SG:PUTT 3.4/SG:TTG 10.3
- Won in very tough conditions — similar to Scheffler he also gained most of his strokes on approach
- Played well in his prior PGA start (also similar to Scheffler)
Want to see who is trending as a strong play early? Check out Stokastic’s PGA DFS projections, which will be updated on Monday and throughout the week.
2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational Course Preview
Bay Hill: Par 72, 7,466 yards
Greens: TifEagle Bermuda
Designer: Dick Wilson (1961)
Renovation Architect: (Arnold Palmer (2009)
Similar Courses: TPC Scottsdale, TPC Twin Lakes
Bay Hill is a longer par 72 that often plays as one of the toughest on the PGA Tour. Its length is made even more difficult by the fact that there are several challenging drives over or near water and several long approaches where players will either be forced into playing aggressively over more water or “bailing out” into sand traps/impossible chipping areas. As such, green in regulation percentages at Bay Hill are often quite low and often trend 5% or more under the PGA Tour average, even for the top finishers.
The rough at Bay Hill is often grown out for this event as well, which makes it even more difficult given how much water there is around the course. Water comes into play on nine holes at Bay Hill but there are also 84 bunkers strewn throughout the venue. All this is to say that players need to be on top of their game this week, especially when it comes to approaches. Players will face more approaches greater than 200 yards at Bay Hill than almost any other venue so good mid to long-iron proximity is a must. Last season, Scottie Scheffler was able to survive some tough conditions — despite losing strokes off the tee — by gaining over eight strokes on his approaches. Tyrrell Hatton took a similar approach to victory in 2020.
Winners and top finishers at Bay Hill gain more strokes on approach against the field than any other metric making it the most important stat to focus in on. Course history and past Florida form are also something to take note of as several past winners and top finishers have also had success at other PGA stops in Florida like PGA National and TPC Sawgrass. Six of the past eight winners of this event had recorded a top-5 finish at Bay Hill in a previous year before winning.
Key Stats: Strokes gained approach / Proximity from 200 yards / Strokes gained ball striking
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2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational Recent Form Watch
Top Approach Proximity Greater Than 200 Yards (Last 24 Rounds)
- Gary Woodland
- Jon Rahm
- Tom Hoge
- Patrick Cantlay
- Adam Svensson
Strokes Gained Approach (Last 50 Rounds)
- Xander Schauffele
- Tony Finau
- Tom Hoge
- Rory McIlroy
- Collin Morikawa
Top Strokes Gained Ball Striking (Last 24 Rounds)
- Scottie Scheffler
- Xander Schauffele
- Gary Woodland
- Jon Rahm
- Rory McIlroy
Latest PGA DFS Content
2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational Weather Forecast
Thursday a.m.: 66-70 F, winds 6-8 mph/0% chance of precipitation
Thursday p.m.: 85-89 F, winds 10-12 mph/0% chance of precipitation
Friday a.m.: 66-70 F, winds 10-15 mph/0% chance of precipitation
Friday p.m.: 85-89 F, winds 15-25 mph/0% chance of precipitation
Buckle up. As of writing, Friday is set to bring winds in excess of 20 mph in the afternoon which will create havoc given that water comes into play on nine of the holes at Bay Hill — with plenty of tough carries off the tee. Keep an eye on how the forecast shakes out but expect there to be a big rush in DFS toward avoiding that Friday afternoon wave, which will likely leave a lot of players in the Friday afternoon wave very low owned. If it’s windy enough, going with the crowd will likely be the smart play; but if there’s any doubt, there is massive leverage ion targeting the lower-owned golfers in that wave. The main takeaway is don’t set lineups before checking the weather Wednesday night.
2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational Early Betting Targets and DFS Picks
Viktor Hovland | BetMGM Outright
Hovland has shown progression in his ball striking now in two straight events. He had a solid showing at the Genesis where he only lost strokes around and on the greens. He’s been solid in the state of Florida over his career, posting a second-place finish at this event last season, a third at the Valspar in 2021 and a ninth at the Players in 2022. While his around-the-green game can give make even the most steely-stomached bettors nauseous, Hovland has gained strokes around the green at Bay Hill in each of the past two seasons. Bay Hill also tends to be a venue where players gain most of their strokes on approach or with the putter, much like last year’s champion Scheffler did. Hovland’s trending in the right direction and this event/venue makes for a great spot for him to grab his first win against an elite field on the PGA.
Rickie Fowler | BetMGM Outright
Fowler’s been extremely solid so far in 2023 and is a player to target this week in both the placing and outright markets. He has been gaining multiple strokes on approach every week and will be coming to a place in Bay Hill which has some special meaning for him. Fowler has always placed this event high up on his bucket list due to his affinity for Arnold Palmer, and he has had plenty of decent finishes around Bay Hill, including a third in 2013 and an 18th placing from 2020. The experience edge this week should come in handy and the switch to Bermuda greens should also help after his putter went dormant on the poa greens at Riviera. He is a two-time winner in the State of Florida and has also won at TPC Scottsdale, which is a great comp to Bay Hill. Getting on him early Monday morning in the outright and top-20 markets isn’t a horrible idea at all.
