Connect with us
Articles PGA
DFS News & Articles
first cut

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am 2023 PGA DFS Preview: Andrew Putnam Can Beat a Weakened Field

Geoff Ulrich



Andrew Putnam and Trey Mullinax will emerge as the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am DFS picks in our PGA DFS picks for a preview that will include...

The Pebble Beach Pro-Am event is the next stop on the PGA Tour and represents the final multi-course event of the season. This week is often more about the celebrities than the real golf and with a weakened field expect to see more highlights of Larry the Cable Guy and Bill Murray, than actual shots of the golfers in contention. With that said, this event has been a mainstay on the PGA Tour for over 50 years and offers some proven trends for betting and daily fantasy markets.

Don’t forget to check out the Stokastic PGA DFS projections, which has both scoring data and PGA DFS ownership projections. Stokastic PGA DFS projections come out on Monday and will be updated throughout the week.

Your first NFL bet is on Caesars up to $1,250

Legal gambling age is 21 in most states. Gambling Problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER

PGA DFS Picks: 2023 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Preview

The Pebble Beach Pro-Am is very similar to the most recent event in that there is a three-course rotation in play, which will see every golfer in the field play on each course once over the first three days. The final day will see the field get cut down to only the top 60 players and ties (which is even shorter than a regular PGA Tour stop) with all the action on Sunday happening over at Pebble Beach. The three courses are all short par 72s, but they do feature some characteristics that can make them tricky to score on, especially if the wind is up. Smaller greens are a mainstay of Pebble Beach, particularly, and green in regulation percentages go way down here compared to the year-to-year seasonal PGA average.

That also means scrambling becomes more important and around the green play does tend to play a big part in success at this event. There is also a shift from off-tee and long-iron play (which was vital last week) to short-iron proximity and putting. The majority of the par 4’s at Pebble Beach (and the other two courses) fall under 450 yards in length (many go well under) and so the majority of approaches tend to fall under 150 yards.

For stats, looking at short iron proximity and just general strokes gained ball striking form is a place to start. Players who also have good around-the-green stats and have been putting well (especially on poa) will provide another chance to potentially hit a big week, given the setup of this course.

One final note, course history does tend to play a role this week. This event features one of the biggest trends running in professional golf as every winner at this event since the year 2000 had posted a finish of 16th or better in one of the prior three seasons leading up to their win. Playing Pebble, and getting experience going deep into the event, has been a great indicator for past winners.

Legal gambling age is 21 in most states. Gambling Problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER

Below are some of the top players in the field to watch this week given their recent form and course history:

  1. Ben Griffin: He has made nine cuts in a row and is trending very well in the ball-striking department having now gained strokes on approach in five straight events. He sets up well for the approach-driven Pebble but will be making his first-ever PGA start at this venue.
  2. Andrew Putnam: Putnam comes in on a 17-event made-cut streak. The results are impressive, and he has been killing it in multiple categories, ranking out top 10 in both strokes gained around the green and putting stats over the last 50 rounds. If his irons tick up this week, he should compete.
  3. Maverick McNealy: McNealy didn’t get in contention last week, but he posted a 31st-place finish and made his seventh cut in a row. The ball-striking for McNealy remains an issue but he’s one of the best putters on the PGA Tour and has plenty of experience at Pebble having finished top-five at this event in 2020 and 21.
  4. Justin Rose: Rose made his fourth cut in a row last week and looked solid doing it. He finished 18th and gained multiple strokes on approach. Rose was in contention late at Pebble Beach at the US Open in 2019 and should be viewed as a potential betting target given the form he’s starting to show.
  5. Seonghyeon Kim: Kim’s finished top-20 in two of his last three starts. He is an interesting fit for Pebble given that he rates out as an elite putter who has gained strokes on the greens now in five straight events.

Field notes:

Want to try our new lineup generator for 50% off?
Use the coupon code SCORE to get 50% off the first week or month for any package, including Platinum, NBA, and NBA Lineup Generator!

Legal gambling age is 21 in most states. Gambling Problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Past Winners and Winners Stats

2022: Tom Hoge (50-1)

  • Lead-in: MC/2/MC, (MC prior week at Farmers, was in contention late at Amex)
  • Stats for week of win: SG:OTT 1.0/SG:APP 4.0/SG:ATG 1.2/SG:PUTT 5.3/SG:TTG 6.2
  • Hoge was in good early season form when he came into this event last year, having finished runner-up at the other pro-am event in Palm Springs two weeks earlier
  • Like many of the past winners he used precise iron play and a hot putter to beat out the field and had a solid blend of course experience and recent form

2021: Daniel Berger (14-1)

  • Lead in: MC/7/10, (Berger missed the cut at the WMPO the week prior)
  • Stats for week of win: SG:OTT 2.5/SG:APP 4.6/SG:ATG 1.9/SG:PUTT 2.5/SG:TTG 9.0
  • Berger gained strokes everywhere in 2021 and was one of the more dominant winners at this event in recent memory, just in terms of the kind of ball striking he displayed throughout the week
  • Having won at other technical tracks like Colonial and TPC Southwind he’s a great example of how elite iron players can dominate at those sorts of courses and gives us a great example to work from in terms of style and strength

2020: Nick Taylor (100-1)

  • Lead-in: 49/MC/32, (Taylor played the week prior at the WMPO and finished 49th)
  • Stats for week of win: SG:OTT -0.5/SG:APP 2.5/SG:ATG 1.7/SG:PUTT 5.9/SG:TTG 3.7
  • Taylor won in blustery conditions and really relied on a strong putter and around-the-green game.
  • Taylor’s the type of veteran player who pops up and wins this event (Ted Potter Jr. and Vaughn Taylor being other recent examples)
  • Taylor also speaks to why recent form isn’t the only metric to view this week given his lead-in was far from spectacular, but he did carry solid course history

Want to see who is trending as a strong play early? Check out Stokastic’s PGA DFS projections, which will be updated on Monday and throughout the week.

Get a "No Sweat First Bet" up to $3,000 when you bet on the Super Bowl!

Legal gambling age is 21 in most states. Gambling Problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER

2023 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Course Preview

Pebble Beach (main course), par 72, 7,051 yards; Greens: Poa Annua

Spyglass Hill par 72, 7,041 yards; Greens: Poa Annua

Monterey Peninsula Par 72, Par 71, 6,957 yards; Greens: Poa Annua

Greens: Poa Annua

Designer: Jack Neville and Douglas Grant (1919)

Similar Courses: El Chameleon, TPC Southwind, TPC River Highlands, Torrey Pines

Scoring averages from 2021:

Pebble 72.516 / Monterrey 69.691 / Spyglass 72.876

These courses tend to vary in difficulty a bit from season to season, but generally Monterrey plays as the easiest course, with Pebble often a close second and Spyglass yielding the worst scores. That’s important to note for prop and match-up betting — as well as first-round leader bets and showdown play in DFS. Where it can get tricky is if it’s windy on Pebble Beach as it is such an exposed course that often it will play a stroke or two more difficult depending on the severity of the wind.

Targeting players starting at Monterrey will often be the best bet for daily fantasy single-round play and matchup betting.

As far as layout goes, the host course (Pebble Beach) is a traditional par 72 with four par 5’s and four par 3’s. Three of the four par 5’s on Pebble play shorter at under 550 yards. The layouts on the par 5’s will still force players to club down off the tee meaning around the green play becomes crucial to getting up and down for birdie. With some dogleg layouts and shorter holes, length off the tee isn’t all that essential and the average driving distance for the field is generally 10-15 yards lower than the average PGA Tour event.

Despite this being a less-than-driver course, there is still plenty of trouble lurking around Pebble Beach, especially with such small and technical green structures. As a result, a solid approach and iron play are a must, along with great scrambling. Six of the top seven players here in 2020 gained +1.2 strokes or more around the greens, while five of the top six in 2021 gained +1.2 strokes around the greens.

2023 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Recent Form Watch

Top Approach Proximity (Last 50 Rounds)

  • Ryan Armour
  • Russell Knox
  • Tom Hoge
  • Lucas Glover
  • Viktor Hovland

Strokes Gained on Approach (Last 50 Rounds)

  • Tom Hoge
  • Mark Hubbard
  • Russell Knox
  • Matthew NeSmith
  • Viktor Hovland

Top Strokes Gained Around the Green (Last 50 Rounds)

  • Matt Kuchar
  • Danny Willett
  • Robby Shelton
  • William McGirt
  • Andrew Putnam

Legal gambling age is 21 in most states. Gambling Problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Weather Forecast

Thursday a.m.: 50-52 F, winds 6-10 mph/0% chance of precipitation

Thursday p.m.: 55 F, winds 10-14 mph/0% chance of precipitation

Friday a.m.: 50-55 F, winds 5-20 mph/35-50% chance of precipitation (potential early morning gusts that are scheduled to die down before noon)

Friday p.m.: 55 F, winds 5-8 mph/25-30% chance of precipitation

The weather around Pebble Beach can be very spontaneous this time of year with fog, wind, rain and cooler temperatures all moving in and out of the area quickly. This week, there will be lots of overcast skies with highs in the 55-degree range. Rain and wind look like they might show up in pockets and right now there appears to be a small bit of bad weather scheduled for Thursday afternoon and evening, which could even carry over into Friday morning. Players are teeing off on three courses this week, but taking the latest starters on Friday could be something to consider — just remember that this forecast could change drastically by Wednesday night.

Something else to consider this week is that Spyglass Hill is the most heavily tree-lined and inland venue of the three. Monterrey and Pebble are both right off the ocean and will be more affected by wind. Getting golfers on Spyglass on the windiest day could be an advantage.

2023 AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Early Betting Targets and DFS Picks

Andrew Putnam | BetMGM Outright

Putnam sets up perfectly for an event that will be contested on a short seaside golf course with smaller tricky greens. He has been trending great since the middle of 2022, making the cut in each of his last 17 PGA Tour starts. As a shorter hitter, he won’t be disadvantaged much off the tee this week, and his around-the-green and putting game rank out top 10 in this field over short and long form. This will also be his fifth-time playing in this event, and the winners here over the past couple of decades have all had one major thing in common — a solid number of starts at Pebble Beach along with one or two recent high finishes. Putnam finished sixth at this venue last season despite losing strokes on approach, and after a week off, his ball striking should be a little crisper than it was at the American Express a couple of weeks ago. Considering his only PGA Tour win came at the 2018 Barracuda Championship — another watered-down field — as a +2500 favorite, any price in the outright market that comes close to this mark should be considered suitable considering his form and history.

The Ohio Tease: Deposit $10, Get $50
21+ and present in OH. Gambling Problem? Call or text 1-800-GAMBLER

Trey Mullinax | BetMGM Outright

Mullinax played in his second event of the year last week, finishing 31st. While his off-tee game is a bit of a work in progress, Pebble Beach will help take the driver out of his hands on many holes. The American is a streaky player but ranks 11th in this field in strokes gained ball striking over the last 50 rounds and had a very solid week putting on the poa greens at Torrey Pines, gaining 1.4 strokes with the flat stick. Mullinax has also proven he has the talent to overcome a weak field like the one in play this week, as he gained his first Tour win last year at the opposite field Barbasol Championship. He’s also played this event four times in the past, finishing 17th in 2017 and 28th last season. Considering he went off at 150-1 last week on many sportsbooks, don’t be shocked if he’s available at 40-1 or better, odds that would make him an attractive outright and top-10 bet for this weaker field event.

More PGA