Butterfield Bermuda Championship DFS Golf Picks: Mark Hubbard

This week will mark the fourth running of the Butterfield Bermuda Championship. This event used to be played as an alternate series tournament that was played alongside the now defunct WGC HSBC China event. It’s now found its way to being the only event on the PGA TOUR schedule for this week and will again be played at Port Royal GC, which is one of eight courses on the island. The field this week will feature 130-135 players and Seamus Power sets up as the only player ranked inside the OWGR top 50 in the field. Let’s dive into our DFS golf picks featuring Mark Hubbard.

It’ll be a week to go heavy on some lessor known players and using Stokastic’s Golf projections will be extremely helpful in getting us started in the right direction for our PGA DFS lineups.

Butterfield Bermuda Championship DFS Golf Picks

The event takes place on the small island of Bermuda and is played at the longest course on the island, the par-71, 6,828-yard Port Royal Golf Club. The venue used to host the defunct Grand Slam of Golf back in the day and underwent major renovations to be able to host the current-day pros. The course is short (one of the shortest on tour), and its main defense is the wind and its location just off the sea. Six of the holes skirt the ocean, where trade winds can wreak havoc if they are up. Both Brian Gay and Brendon Todd ranked inside the top 10 in driving accuracy and putting for the weeks of their win, while last year’s winner Lucas Herbert also mirrored their around the green prowess with a great week of scrambling. Power off the tee has not been a prerequisite to low scores in Bermuda — or so we think after the first three seasons — as players with good short-iron play and strong putting skills have dominated.

Port Royal Golf Club Stats and Info

Par 71, 6,825-yard venue; uses TifEagle Bermuda grass on the greens and has water in play on six holes.
Six of the par 4’s on the course measure in under 400 yards in length, but smaller greens and winds have kept greens in regulation under tour average through two years.
The biggest trend in winners have been their ability to both avoid three-putts and hit fairways; the first two winners both ranked top eight in driving accuracy for the week.

Butterfield Bermuda Championship 2022 DFS Golf Picks

Mark Hubbard

Total Points Projection: 70.0 | Top 6 percentage: 15.2%

The top of the board this week for betting and daily fantasy golf is extremely tight. There’s not much difference in win equity between a lot of the top players and so diving down off the top few names seems prudent to really maximize value. The Stokastic model likes doing this with a player like Mark Hubbard, who is top five in points projection (and within two points of the top player this week) who also has the best value score of anyone above $10,000 in price on DraftKings.

Hubbard has already played a few times this Fall and posted a 5th place at the Sanderson Farms, a great effort that likely could have and should have yielded an even bigger pay day. Hubbard will be looking at the field this week as a chance for quick redemption though and he comes in with experience having played this venue twice now already, posting a 22nd here last season, despite not even having full status at the time. He’s ranked first in strokes gained approach in this field and should be able to lean immensely on his good iron play at this shorter venue, where the wind always plays a factor. Eating a little chalk off the top to start lineups and save salary with Hubbard projects as a strong move this week.

Projected PGA DFS Ownership: DraftKings 21.1% | FanDuel 25.0%

The Stats:

Ranks first in strokes gained approach stats and second in strokes gained ball striking over the last 50-rounds
22nd at Bermuda in 2021, he’s also posted solid results at other seaside venues like Pebble Beach and Puerto Rico

Brandon Wu

Total Points Projection: 66.4 | Top 6 percentage: 11.2%

When we’re dipping down into the $8,000-range on DraftKings this week, Brandon Wu is a player who sticks out. He’s shown to have the ability to pop up in both strong and weaker fields, and grabbed top six finishes last year at Puerto Rico, Mexico, but also at the Scottish Open where he finished 6th against an elite field. The random nature of those events and venues — where wind and ever changing forecasts is often a factor — didn’t seem to bother Wu who is very accurate off the tee and has an iron/putting combo that seems capable of striking for good weeks at the right setups.

Despite being relatively new to the PGA this will be the second time he’s played this event/venue and from a projection standpoint, he’s certainly projecting as one of the strongest plays in the mid-$8,000 range on DraftKings. Wu’s got the best projection of any player ranked under $8,500 this week and feels like a great bounce-back candidate after a couple of slower weeks. The setup, price and projection certainly make him a great Daily Fantasy target.

Projected PGA DFS Ownership: DraftKings 13.9% | FanDuel 12.3%

The Stats:

Ranked third in strokes gained Off the Tee stats and 23rd in ball-striking over the last 50-rounds
finished 34rd at this venue last season and posted four top 10’s on the PGA TOUR last season

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Low-Owned PGA DFS GPP Flier

Michael Gligic

Total Points Projection: 61.1 | Top 6 percentage: 7.6%

Considering his salary is over $8,000 on DraftKings, it’s not a huge shock as to why Michael Gligic is trending with sub 10% ownership, even in the quasi-Korn Ferry field that we are getting this week. The Canadian is also coming off a missed cut at the Shriners, where he lost over 3.0 strokes putting over two days of work. At the same time, this event has seen each of its past few winners come in with almost zero form and find immediate success on the Port Royal greens and we only have to go back a few months to when Gligic was lighting it up with his putter and gaining multiple strokes with that club, per event.

Gligic profiles with a lot of the same similarities as last year’s winner Lucas Herbert in that he’s dominate off the tee and will essentially be playing a pitch and putt this week. His around the green game and putter are streaky but they’ve also shown the ability to spike on these easier courses. He finished 11th at this event last year and also finished 4th at Punta Cana (another shorter seaside venue) in 2021. With lower ownership attached, and a solid birdie rate, he’s the kind of player in the 8k range worth taking a shot on this week in bigger field GPP lineups.

Projected PGA DFS Ownership: DraftKings: 7.3% | FanDuel 6.2%

Top 2 Under 5% in DraftKings Fantasy Golf This Week

This section will target players that should end up under or close to 5% ownership in larger DraftKings Golf GPPs. These picks are boom/bust PGA DFS players with an almost 100% focus on the upside.

Scott Piercy ($7,300)

It was only six starts ago that Scott Piercy held the lead on the back nine at the 3M Open. He finished 5th that week and has now finished top 30 in three of his last six starts. He’s tended to do very well at these shorter setups throughout his career and his short game has been in good form of late. With the field we’re getting his sub-$7,500 salary on DraftKings makes him a good value and player who could easily pop-up on the leaderboard this Sunday.

Cameron Percy ($7,900)

Cameron Percy hasn’t played since the Fortinet but he has showed well in recent form stats. He’s gained strokes around the green in six straight starts and been positive on approach in his last three starts. 25th at the Fortinet and 8th at the Wyndham showcase a player in good form right now and he’s trending with under 5% ownership this week, making him a great GPP target.