DFS Golf Picks This Week: Charles Schwab Challenge 2022 DraftKings Plays

The Charles Schwab is held at Colonial Country Club every season, a venue that has hosted the event since 1946. The 7,209-yard par 70 is located in Fort Worth, Texas, marking the tour’s third excursion into the state in the past two months. This event will be held the week after the PGA Championship for the third time in the last four seasons (excluding 2020 when it was the first stop on the PGA TOUR after the Covid stoppage). The last two times it was held after the PGA Championship the winner’s at the Charles Schwab both finished outside the top-40 at the PGA Championship the week prior.

The venue played as the 13th-toughest on tour last year, and while length typically is not that huge a factor at Colonial, it has very tight fairways and plenty of long par 4’s. The old trees also tend to block out approaches from off-line tee shots, so keeping it in the fairway here is typically far more important than pure power off the tee. Five of the last six winners have also gained at least five strokes on the greens, and this has been a great venue for elite putters, with a list of recent champs that includes Kevin Na, Jordan Spieth and Kevin Kisner.

Colonial Country Club Stats and Info

The course plays at par 70, 7,209 yards and features bentgrass greens; water is in play on roughly four holes.
Greenside play here is not overly difficult, as scrambling percentages tend to be quite high every season, but there are 84 bunkers on the course and many of them are greenside; several of the past champs are elite bunker players.
The average driving distance is about five-to-seven yards less than the tour average, and driving accuracy is also about 5%-to-7% lower than normal; players will often opt for accuracy over power, and bombers typically do not get a huge advantage this week, if any.

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Charles Schwab Challenge 2022 DFS Golf Picks & Fantasy Golf Rankings

Viktor Hovland: Grades: A, Values: C, B

Viktor Hovland is coming off a bit of a lackluster PGA Championship which saw him drift to a 41st place finish on the weekend. The three-time PGA TOUR winner has not played poorly of late, though, and is still riding a seven event made cut streak that includes three straight top-10’s from back in February and March. His around-the-green game and putting still leave a bit to be desired but his approach and ball-striking numbers are not far off and were fine last week, especially for a player who did not compete much after the Masters.

Now with a full four rounds of competitive practice under his belt, it would not be shocking to see Hovland’s long game take an uptick this week, and he has typically performed well on venues that reign in his power a little off the tee. Two wins in Mayakoba on a more technical track are encouraging as is a runner-up at the very comparable Copperhead (Valspar) from 2021. Hovland ranks out just behind Jordan Spieth in the Awesemo projections this week but has the best value score of anyone over $10,000 on DraftKings — and also lower ownership projections than Spieth. The Norwegian should get more dialed in this week and looks like a solid starting point from all angles for our daily fantasy golf lineups.

Projected PGA DFS ownership: DraftKings: 18.2% | FanDuel: 24.2%

The Stats:

Second in strokes gained Approach and first in strokes gained tee to green stats over the last 50 rounds
23rd at Colonial back in 2020; has gained over +2.0 strokes on approach now in each of his last six starts

Harold Varner III: Grades: B, Values: A, B

As far as fit goes, Colonial is starting to look like exactly the type of track we should be bullish on for Harold Varner III. Varner has already posted sixth and third-place finishes this year on two of the more technical courses on the PGA TOUR in TPC Sawgrass and Hrabour Town, and certainly has not been terrible for his career at Colonial either, with 19th and 32nd place finishes at the Charles Schwab the last two seasons.

Varner’s course history looks even better when you consider that he gained over +4.0 strokes on Approach in each of those past two starts and likely would have finished much higher had his putting luck ran a little hotter those weeks. Varner’s putter can still hold him back at times but he is trending extremely well where it counts right now, ranking 19th in strokes gained approach stats over the last 24 rounds. He is also catching the eye of the Awesemo Model this week, which has him ranked with the highest points projection on the site of any player ranked under $8,000 on DraftKings. Expect some ownership on him in big GPPs but do not hesitate to build around him as a value play either.

Projected PGA DFS ownership: DraftKings: 15.0% | FanDuel: 10.7%

The Stats:

Gained over a stroke on approach now in five straight events
Ranks top-20 in birdies gained, par 4 efficiency (400-450 yards) and SG: Approach stats over the last 24 rounds

Low-Owned Daily Fantasy Golf GPP Flier

CT Pan ($7,500)

The move here is pretty simple: let’s play off people’s negative sentiment to get lower ownership on a player who is trending extremely well, and also makes for a perfect fit for Colonial. CT Pan was a late withdraw at the Byron Nelson and destroyed a ton of daily fantasy lineups that week as he was trending as a popular value target throughout the industry. The withdrawal was illness related though and with two weeks gone by, the withdrawal concerns at the Charles Schwab should be low to nil at best. Pan has gained strokes on approach now in seven straight starts and has shown he has the kind of pedigree to compete with the best at these more technical setups, grabbing his lone PGA TOUR win against a tough field at Harbour Town (RBC Heritage) in 2019.

When looking to the mid-$7,000 range this week, there is really no one that stands out with better overall short-term form or course fit than Pan, who also finished third-place at this event back in 2019 (and is three-for-four in terms of made cuts at Colonial). If he is anywhere near sub-10% owned this week, Pan stands out as a player you should be willing to go overweight on as his salary simply is not reflecting the consistency and upside potential he has shown lately on the PGA TOUR.

Projected PGA DFS ownership: DraftKings: 7.5%

Top 3 Under 5% in DraftKings Fantasy Golf This Week

This section will target players that should end up under or close to 5% ownership in larger DraftKings Golf GPPs. These picks are boom/bust PGA DFS players with an almost 100% focus on the upside.

Stephan Jaeger ($6,800)

Jaeger is the Hail Mary play of the week. He is a serious spike putter with an all world short game and fits the mold of characters like Kisner and Na, who are both past winners of this event. Jaeger has gained over +4.0 strokes on approach in each of his last two starts and looks to be building confidence off a multiple win season on the Korn Ferry Tour last year.

David Lipsky ($7,000)

Keep riding with Lipsky this week as a nice lower-owned target in GPPs. He has three top-25 finishes in his last five starts and excels at mid-iron play and keeping the ball in play off the tee. He is drawing little to no heat in the DFS world despite scoring over 100.00 DraftKings points in three of his last five outings as well.

Rickie Fowler ($7,400)

Fowler is trending with sub-5% ownership this week despite coming off multiple made cuts and multiple top-25 finishes. The sub-7,500 range on DraftKings is not littered with standout values so taking a “pedigree” shot with Fowler this week, at a still very cheap salary, is warranted.

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