Having a variety of viewpoints and data points can be both a curse and a blessing. In this article, I sift through all of the data and give you top picks from all four statistical angles that make up PGA DFS. This week the PGA Tour takes a break from the massive fields and brutal cut sweats, and there are a guaranteed four rounds from all of the golfers as long as they do not withdraw. Right now there are 66 golfers in the field for the WGC-FedEx St. Jude, with the possibility of more being added over the next 24 hours. There is a full slate of statistics to jump into this week with over 30 years of course history, so there should be plenty to work off of when making PGA DFS picks on DraftKings and FanDuel.
PGA DFS Picks This Week: WGC-FedEx St. Jude
Plenty of golf was played by this group of 66 golfers over the past 13 weeks, with only two golfers competing fewer than five times: Matthew Wolff and Webb Simpson.
Recent Form
Collin Morikawa’s lackluster first couple of rounds cost him a shot at a gold medal and a spot on the podium. However, he picked up his fifth top-10 in the last 13 weeks, leading the field. Four others have picked up four top-10s in this dataset: Brooks Koepka, Scottie Scheffler, Paul Casey and Louis Oosthuizen.
Three other golfers in the field have come in the top 10 in at least 50% of their starts: Jordan Spieth, Daniel Berger and Xander Schauffele. Both Spieth and Schauffele have come in the top 25 in five of six events, trailing only Morikawa in that department, who is 6-for-7. Patrick Reed also has six top-25s in this dataset but has done it over nine events. Casey, Oosthuizen, Spieth, Schauffele, Shane Lowry and Brian Harman each are 5-for-6 in coming in the top 25.
Negative Recent Form
Four golfers in the field have failed to get into the top 25 in any of their starts over the past 13 weeks: Matt Jones, Brad Kennedy, Ryosuke Kinoshita and Stewart Cink. They are four of 14 names that have not been able to crack the top 10 in the last 13 weeks. Others in that camp of note include Wolff, Simpson, Wilco Nienaber, Billy Horschel and Lee Westwood.
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PGA DFS Picks Based on Recent Form
- Collin Morikawa ($11,000)
- Jordan Spieth ($10,400)
- Louis Oosthuizen ($9,600)
- Scottie Scheffler ($9,100)
- Paul Casey ($9,000)
Course History
Even though there is over 30 years’ worth of course history, 11 players in the field will be making the first appearance since at least 2013. Lucas Glover is probably the most interesting name, and Cameron Davis, Garrick Higgo, K. H. Lee, Sam Burns and Will Zalatoris will also be making their first trips.
Three golfers in the field have found the top 10 four times since 2013: Horschel, Phil Mickelson and Dustin Johnson, who has two wins in seven trips. Koepka, Berger and Ryan Palmer are the only other golfers with more than two top-10s, coming in with three each, while seven others have two. Of those golfers with two top-10s, only Palmer and Simpson have added another top-25.
Lastly, Matthew Fitzpatrick has come to Memphis twice since 2013, and he has come in the top six in both tries.
Top PGA DFS Picks Based on Course History
- Brooks Koepka ($10,600)
- Dustin Johnson ($10,200)
- Daniel Berger ($9,200)
- Matthew Fitzpatrick ($8,800)
- Ryan Palmer ($6,500)
Negative
Eleven golfers in the field this week have teed it up multiple times at TPC Southwind and have yet to come in the top 25. Among the big names in this category include Tony Finau, Corey Conners, Jason Kokrak, Bryson DeChambeau and Joaquin Niemann.
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Strokes Gained
This course is short and only has two par 5’s, but big hitters have done well. It is a positional course off the tee, with a heavy emphasis on approach.
Strokes Gained Tee to Green
- Collin Morikawa
- Brooks Koepka
- Patrick Cantlay
- Paul Casey
- Robert MacIntyre
- Bryson DeChambeau
- Rory McIlroy
- Xander Schauffele
- Shane Lowry
- Tyrrell Hatton
Strokes Gained Off Tee
- Bryson DeChambeau
- Sergio Garcia
- Viktor Hovland
- Cameron Champ
- Rory McIlroy
- Corey Conners
- Brooks Koepka
- Joaquin Niemann
- Matt Fitzpatrick
- Patrick Cantlay
Strokes Gained on Approach
- Collin Morikawa
- Paul Casey
- Brooks Koepka
- Tyrrell Hatton
- Daniel Berger
- Hideki Matsuyama
- Xander Schauffele
- Shane Lowry
- Sam Burns
- Patrick Cantlay
Strokes Gained Around Green
- Kevin Na
- Tommy Fleetwood
- Jordan Spieth
- Patrick Cantlay
- Webb Simpson
- Justin Thomas
- Patrick Reed
- Louis Oosthuizen
- Tony Finau
- Ian Poulter
Strokes Gained Putting
- Louis Oosthuizen
- Jason Kokrak
- Ian Poulter
- Patrick Reed
- Xander Schauffele
- Kevin Kisner
- Cameron Smith
- Brian Harman
- Adam Scott
- Webb Simpson
For the yearly strokes gained ranks, Click here.
Top PGA DFS Picks Based on Strokes Gained
- Rory McIlroy ($10,000)
- Viktor Hovland ($9,700)
- Patrick Cantlay ($9,300)
- Corey Conners ($8,100)
- Tyrrell Hatton ($7,400)
Old School Statistics
With several less-than-driver selections off the tee, it is an even heavier emphasis on the second shot or approach shot. There are a few old-school stats to look at how good one is doing with their approach’s including greens in regulation and proximity to the hole.
Greens in Regulation
- Collin Morikawa
- Sergio Garcia
- Bryson DeChambeau
- Daniel Berger
- Jason Kokrak
- Will Zalatoris
- Stewart Cink
- Patrick Cantlay
- Webb Simpson
- Cameron Champ
Proximity
- Collin Morikawa
- Paul Casey
- Ryan Palmer
- Tyrrell Hatton
- Corey Conners
- Jim Herman
- Sam Burns
- Abraham Ancer
- Carlos Ortiz
- Stewart Cink
Total Driving
- Scottie Scheffler
- Sungjae Im
- Jason Kokrak
- Paul Casey
- Martin Laird
- Corey Conners
- Tyrrell Hatton
- Collin Morikawa
- Harris English
- Sergio Garcia
Around the Green Proximity
- Kevin Na
- Collin Morikawa
- Paul Casey
- Tony Finau
- Patrick Cantlay
- Justin Thomas
- Brian Harman
- Patrick Reed
- Webb Simpson
- Matt Jones
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Putting 15-20 Feet
- Matt Fitzpatrick
- Martin Laird
- Harris English
- Matthew Wolff
- Patrick Reed
- Kevin Kisner
- Patrick Cantlay
- Jordan Spieth
- Robert Streb
- Joaquin Niemann
Par 4 Scoring 400-450
- Patrick Cantlay
- Abraham Ancer
- Webb Simpson
- Brooks Koepka
- Tyrrell Hatton
- Jordan Spieth
- Xander Schauffele
- Adam Scott
- Corey Conners
- Matt Fitzpatrick
Click here to view in Google Sheets.
Top PGA DFS Picks Based on Statistical Analysis
- Webb Simpson ($8,500)
- Abraham Ancer ($8,300)
- Sungjae Im ($7,700)
- Harris English ($7,600)
- Martin Laird ($6,200)
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