The PGA Tour finalizes its 2021-22 season this week with a visit to East Lake for the Tour Championship. The playoff format here includes 29 men vying for the win, as Will Zalatoris (back) has withdrawn and there will be no alternates. The seeds then correspond to certain starting positions (aka a handicap system), which give the higher seeds an advantage. DraftKings and FanDuel player pools have been assessed their values based on the starting positions, and salaries this week have a much wider spread as a result.
To help wade through this no cut event, we’ll use the Stokastic projections below to highlight who the best PGA DFS picks are this week at the Tour Championship.
Tour Championship DFS Golf Picks & Projections
Patrick Cantlay and Dustin Johnson won this event the last two seasons and entered as the No. 1 seed. However, it is worth noting that in 2019 Rory McIlroy started at 5 under par and was able to win the event and the FedEx Cup. A lot will depend on how the two leaders perform, but there will be more McIlroy-like winners as this setup gets a larger sample. As for the course, East Lake is a Donald Ross design that plays as a long par 70 and tends to favor elite ball strikers (like McIlroy) and players with good power and consistency off the tee. The bigger greens produce average greens in regulation, but the long par 4’s and firm fairways mean driving accuracy at East Lake is well below the PGA Tour average. Add in the fact that this its length is above average, and East Lake produces a clear advantage for elite drivers.
East Lake Stats and Info
- Par 70, 7,319 yards; a Donald Ross design that features Bermuda greens.
- Ranked as the 14th-toughest venue on tour; has not seen a winning score higher than 14 under par (outside of the starting positions) over last six years; Jon Rahm shot 14 under par last season over four rounds.
- Six par 4’s measure over 450 yards; driving accuracy is 5% to 7% under PGA Tour average, and scrambling percentage is also slightly under tour average.
Tour Championship 2022 DFS Golf Picks
Rory McIlroy
Total Points Projection: 88.2 | Top 6 percentage: 46.52 %
Rory McIlroy enters this year’s Tour Championship six shots back of the lead, which is exactly one shot behind where he started in 2019 when he won the event. East Lake has been McIlroy’s personal stomping grounds throughout his career, as he’s now accumulated two wins and a second place over his career. McIlroy heads into this event showing some signs of life as well after a disappointing missed cut at the FedEx St. Jude Championship. He gained over seven strokes ball striking at Wilmington last week but couldn’t figure out the bentgrass greens and lost 4.6 strokes putting for the week. The greens at East Lake have been favorable for him over his career, though, and he gained over two strokes putting there during his win in 2019.
Stokastic projections have been high on McIlroy all season. He’s produced a bunch of top finishes in majors and now projects for the best value score of anyone over $10,000 on DraftKings. The ownership will be fairly high, but McIlroy’s salary means that any kind of top-five finish should see him factor into winning lineups. Plus, he has over a 46% top-six Stokastic projection as well. As an anchor play, McIlroy provides great course history and strong value, making him a top play.
Projected PGA DFS Ownership: DraftKings 27.8%| FanDuel 28.9%
The Stats:
- Gained over seven strokes ball striking last week; ranks first in DraftKings points over the last 50 rounds.
- Has gained over 2.5 strokes off the tee at East Lake in six of his last eight starts.
Matthew Fitzpatrick
Total Points Projection: 79.3 | Top 6 percentage: 26.36%
While the need to get some big names in lineups is evident, going down and finding that player in the next tier who can potentially move into the top six will be just as vital. While Matthew Fitzpatrick looked a little out of sorts last week — losing an incredible 7.7 strokes on approach on his way to a 48th-place finish — playing for the quick bounce back at East Lake seems like a solid move. Despite the horrid ball striking in Wilmington, Fitzpatrick still gained a bunch with the putter, and that club will allow him to compete anywhere, even if the rest of his game isn’t quite 100%. This will be his first trip to East Lake, but considering how much he’s improved his driving this year, and the ability he’s shown on Bermuda greens, it should work well for him from a setup perspective.
Given his sub-$9,000 salary on DraftKings, Fitzpatrick will come with some ownership, but the Stokastic model says that’s OK. He has the highest points projection of anyone under $9,000 on DraftKings this week and the best value score of anyone over $8,500 as well. Using him as a second or even third man in provides flexibility and different ways to succeed given how good he is on the greens. Roll with Fitzpatrick as the second-tier target this week.
Projected PGA DFS Ownership: DraftKings 25.0% | FanDuel 24.5%
The Stats:
- Ranks third in strokes gained putting on Bermuda greens over the last 50 rounds.
- Has only failed to gain over a stroke putting once in his last nine PGA Tour starts.
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Low-Owned PGA DFS GPP Flier
Sam Burns
Total Points Projection: 81.4 | Top 6 percentage: 34.28%
It is interesting to note that Sam Burns will be starting five strokes back of Scottie Scheffler this week, which is exactly how far back he was of Scheffler before the final round of the Charles Schwab Challenge began in June. Burns won that event in a playoff and will now get another crack at Scheffler this week. Burns hasn’t been overly impressive this playoff season, but he can go from 0 to 100 quickly. He’s gained over five strokes putting in an event this year on four separate occasions, and two of those weeks resulted in wins. Last season he only finished 18th at this event but gained 4.7 strokes putting on the greens at East Lake.
Ownership this week will be high on pretty much everyone, with only 29 players to pick from, but Burns is hovering around just 15% on DraftKings in the Stokastic ownership projections. That puts him well into the bottom third of field. Given the great season he’s had and his putting prowess, that sets Burns up to be a great leverage play in large fields.
Projected PGA DFS Ownership: DraftKings: 15.8% | FanDuel 17.2%
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