The last major of the year is on deck, but we have another low-key birdie fest coming up with the John Deere Classic set to tee off. Since the Open is only one week away pretty much all of the top players are in Europe or resting so expect a weak field. Still, weak fields allow us to roster some lesser known players and between this and the Scottish Open in Europe it should be a somewhat decent week.
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The Course
Weclomt to TPC Deere Run, in Silvis, IL. We get another atypical par 71 layout which means 3 par 5’s, two of which will be eagle opportunities for the field. The courses measure about 7250 yards in distance, but the scoring is going to be there with the winner having a chance to get into the -20’s. The course really doesn’t favor bombers and although more distance is always a positive you will see plenty of guys club down to get some increased accuracy off the tee. Guys hit a lot of fairways here, leading to a lot of greens hit and plenty of birdie chances.
Putting usually is the difference, but we can say that most weeks it is just very hard to calculate who will go nuts with the flat stick. I will be finding those solid iron players who can set themselves up for reasonable birdie looks on most holes. Birdie or better % is important because if your golfer does not have upside this week you are going to be in trouble.
It is worth noting that there are a few players already in the Open who are playing, which is a little concerning in the motivation factor, but nothing so severe that I am crossing guys off on that factor alone. With such a lack of talent it is wide open, and most guys still have plenty to play for with the Fedex Cup coming up quickly and tour cards starting to be on the line.
The Field
Well this take weak field to a new level. I mentioned earlier about most guys being in Europe already, but seeing the full field shows just how big a void is left for this tournament. The young guns like Wolff, Hovland and Morikawa who have been on tour for basically a few weeks lead off the pricing and its honestly hard to even argue what else they could have done. Last week we saw just how talented these guys are and it will be interesting to see how people attack this tourney with these guys now 10k plus instead of being mid-range options. From there we have a ton of tour regulars and guys who would absolutely love a big week to secure the card and breathe a little easier come playoff time.
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Top Priced PGA DFS Picks
Joaquin Niemann $10.2k DraftKings, $42 Yahoo
Niemann has been on tour for a bit longer than Morikawa, Hovland, and Wolff but he is still just 20 years old and looking to breakthru and find the winners circle. He struggled earlier this year, but the game is finally back to where we it was last year. Niemann has gained 3+ strokes Tee to Green in six straight events. We know how well he can score and with better putting recently there’s no reason to think Niemann can’t break through in this spot. Like everyone this is a price tag we really haven’t seen from him, but he also hasn’t played many fields where he is on the short list of favorites to take home the trophy.
Sungjae Im $9.7k DraftKings, $44 Yahoo
Sungjae is having a fine season, but he feels like old news now that Hovland and Co. have just taken the tour by storm. Im plays every week basically and has hit some bumps along the way maybe due to burnout, or just the ups and down of golf in general. He is currently back in form coming off a T-15 last week and in his last four starts we’ve seen nothing worse than a 21st place showing. With this field strength he’s clearly one of the best players available and the price isn’t awful at sub 10k. JDC is going to be a birdie fest and Im has the game to contend and excel in that type of environment.
* Matthew Wolff is the flat min on Yahoo, plus Morikawa and Hovland are both in the mid 20’s, all three are incredible values there.
Mid-Range PGA DFS Picks
Kyle Stanley $8.8k DraftKings, $36 Yahoo
Stanley hasn’t found the consistent form we’ve seen in years past, but the stats are starting to mirror what we are used to and if that keeps up the results will come. In Detroit Stanley gained six stroke with the irons in route to a 21st place finish and has gained tee to green in six out of the last seven events. If you took a macro view of this field you could argue Stanley is near the top with a few wins on tour and plenty of experience in events much stronger than this one. I’ll look to him in the hopes that the form and lack of consistency has kept the price down and I don’t expect anything crazy with his ownership making him an intriguing play at 8.8k.
Dylan Frittelli $7.6k DraftKings, $28 Yahoo
No shocker here, but this feels a little different as Frittelli might pick up some steam if people look at the numbers from last week. Frittelli finished uneventfully 46th, but he gained seven strokes with the irons and lost five strokes putting which is obviously what kept him from really making some noise. It’s not to say that he automatically will fix the putter, but it’s hard to ignore the ball striking on a guy that I’ve said pretty much all year is someone I’m interested in targeting in most spots. Add in the fact the price really didn’t move that much and I think you have a nice spot for a guy who really needs to start producing some quality finishes on tour.
Lower Priced PGA DFS Picks
Nick Taylor $7.4k DraftKings, $29 Yahoo
The game is in solid shape and when you look at the stats nothing jumps off the page, but nothing stands out as a leak either. Taylor is coming in with five straight made cuts and goes to a course where he can really just look to keep it in the fairway and then attack with his irons from advantageous positions leading to plenty of chances with the flatstick. Price doesn’t stand out in either direction, but with the lack of mid-range options I’ll look to Taylor as a guy who can find the weekend and return a quality result.
Robert Streb $6.9k DraftKings, $20 Yahoo
Streb is gaining some momentum of late, with three out of the last four cuts made and all the finishes being 35th or better so it’s not like he’s completely collapsing on the weekend. The stats are trending upward as well with quality irons during this stretch and it seems like he’s a hot putter away from making some noise. Sub 7k in this field is tempting for anyone who has any combination of form and pedigree and Streb checks those boxes relative to what he is facing this week.
Good luck everyone!
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